SpaceX Could Have 110-140 Orbital Launches in 2023

SpaceX had 7 successful orbital launches in January, 2023 and is scheduled for 14 orbital launches in February, 2023. The January, 2023 launch pace is an annualized 84 launches but the if the February schedule happens then SpaceX will be tracking to 126 launches in 2023. 14 Launches in 28 days would be on pace for 180 launches in 2023.

SpaceX set a record for commercial launches in a year with 61 in 2022. SpaceX just passed 200 Falcon 9 launches. The first Falcon 9 launch was June, 2010. This is clear evidence that the SpaceX launch rate is going exponential.

If SpaceX has a successful orbital launch of the fully reusable Super Heavy Starship and then builds give of them this year, those could give weekly flights from the time they are fully operational. Five weekly Super Heavy Starship flights would be 100 flights in 20 weeks.

The raptor engine factory at 1000 engines per year could make 25 Super Heavy Starships and full raptor engine capacity of this first factory is 4000 engines per year (100 Super Heavy Starships).

30 fully operational Super Heavy Starship could have 1500 flights in 2024. 120 fully operational Super Heavy Starships could have 6000 flights in 2025.

There would need the number Super Heavy Starship to match the number of Mechazilla launch towers. They could have operations where one Mechazilla launch tower is used by five to ten Super Heavy Starships.

I describe Mechazilla operations in the following video.

I describe how frequent launches will enable SpaceX to dominate communications and then air cargo delivery.

SpaceX had two successful missions in the last 3 days.

Here is what is planned for a busy February 2023 of launches.

6 thoughts on “SpaceX Could Have 110-140 Orbital Launches in 2023”

  1. It is absolutely nuts that a private company, within a decade, has effectively outpaced basically the most pre-eminent nation state as far as rocket launches

  2. That’s how exponential growth looks like.

    Curious how it seems the competition is only China nowadays.

    The rest seem to have given up or to be still scratching their heads. I don’t recall any other tech where the competitors were so woefully inadequate for so long and unable to copy it, while a single market actor takes it all.

      • Good point. Total dominance, but only 4-8 customers.

        Still, I don’t know where Samsung, Taiwan Semiconductor, AMD, or Intel would be without them…

    • There are still some small players who are planning their own rockets, but of course nothing on the level of reuse that SpaceX can manage. And even they are having trouble with moving their fully-reusable launch vehicle to operational status. How much of that is irreducible complexity and how much is being tied down by red tape will have to wait for the historians, though.

      • Part of the problem is that there isn’t really enough traffic yet to support more than one rocket provider; Only national pride and concern on the part of governments about sole sourcing has kept the market competitive.

        But only SpaceX currently is large enough to reap the advantages of mass production, everybody else is still in the bespoke hardware domain.

        I think the market WILL get big enough to support multiple players large enough to get advantages of scale, but such will really only appear if SpaceX abuses their current position by acting as a monopolist, or otherwise screws up. I don’t see that opportunity opening up, otherwise.

        The small players are attempting, I think, to position themselves to exploit those sole source concerns on the part of governments, and then hope for SpaceX to make a big mistake.

        Which they WILL do, sooner or later. Probably when Musk gets old enough to have to relinquish operational control, or strokes out. Transition from the original entrepreneurial management is the “great filter” for corporations.

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