The graph above shows the spike in global deaths. This count is not in doubt. The world went from 56 million deaths per year up to 67 million deaths per year. The official COVID death count for all years of the pandemic is under 7 million. The prior spike in global deaths around 1960 was China’s famine that killed an extra 30 million people.
On average, smokers die 10 years earlier than nonsmokers. Smoking causes cancer, heart disease, stroke, lung diseases, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), which includes emphysema and chronic bronchitis. Smoking also increases risk for tuberculosis, certain eye diseases, and problems of the immune system, including rheumatoid arthritis. Quitting smoking before the age of 40 reduces the risk of dying from smoking-related disease by about 90%. Smoking takes decades to kill smokers.
There is a preprint report that statistically shows correlation with non-covid excess deaths and higher vaccination rates in 2021. The global excess deaths problem IF it continues would be an ongoing extra 5-10 million deaths per year. IF the global excess deaths stabilizes at current levels then it would still be a few million higher. Hopefully, it will continue to trend down and it will return to the pre-pandemic trend lines over the next two years. The world should not be at 67 million deaths per year until after 2033 (increasing avg age population). If excess deaths hung around at an extra 3 million deaths per year it would be the fourth global biggest cause of death in 2019. Whatever the cause, it is important that we investigate and understand it, stop it from continuing and prevent it in the future.
The pandemic killed more old and people in poor health. There should have been a drop in deaths as expected future deaths were brought forward.
Lockdowns, less exercise and other effects impacts health but should not have caused deaths to spike that fast. The trend line of deaths would increase but would not spike and certainly not spike to the level seen. Insufficient physical activity is the 4th leading global risk factor for mortality. Approximately 3.2 million deaths and 32.1 million DALYs (representing about 2.1% of global DALYs) each year are attributable to insufficient physical activity. People who are insufficiently physically active have a 20% to 30% increased risk of all-cause mortality compared to those who engage in at least 30 minutes of moderate intensity physical activity most days of the week. Like smoking this unhealthy lifestyle takes time to build its effect to show up in death statistics.
Globally suicide causes about 800,000 deaths each year. The recent increase in suicides is about 10 %. This is 80,000. This is about 1% of the excess death problem. According to the new US data, suicide deaths in the United States increased from 45,979 to 48,183 (4.79%)
Increases in Fentanyl overdoses and suicide were about 30,000 extra deaths per year. Suicide increased 2000 deaths per year. The US had 300,000+ non-covid excess deaths in 2022 and continues to have 10k-30k excess deaths each month. This is about 100k-300k each year.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
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