Many commenters hate Elon Musk and Elon Musk news and coverage.
If the technology and change is happening mostly in one area, then that is where the coverage has to happen. I also had quite a few generative AI articles. Generative AI seems to be heading to weak AGI. Weak AGI would mean matching or near human level capabilities. Strong AGI would be broad superhuman intelligence. The term weak is used in future scenario discussion. Describe a future technology or scenario and something happens but is not as dominating as an alternative strong scenario.
It is very conceivable that 10,000 to 20,000 Teslabots working with humans in GigaMexico making cars around April 2024. Maybe it takes a year or two longer. The disruption when it happens will be extreme. The factory could have 2 to 4X the productivity and car production. Tesla could make 10+M cars in 2025 instead of 5-7 million.
All of the business media used to write about all the things that Jack Welch did and then Bill Gates and then Steve Jobs. This year about 90% of the mass put into space is from SpaceX..before Super Heavy Starship is working. He has crushed the Toyota car manufacturing process. The Tesla real-time company operations and management is vastly superior to the SAP company management system. If there are over 100+ million Teslabots by 2030 and Tesla and SpaceX are 10-100X bigger, then the “fanboying” that people are complaining about will also go next level. If over a billion people are using Starlink low bandwidth voice, text and data this would also be huge. This could happen by next year.
SpaceX just had another Starlink launch. Today 51 Gen 1.5 satellites.
In terms of impacting our lives, the next few years should see a movement to overall AGI and merging it with the robotaxi, robotrucks and teslabots.
The non-Elon ultra-high impact technology developments are medicine, antiaging, nanotechnology, advanced nuclear fission, nuclear fusion, quantum computers and some areas of AI.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.
If you keep shilling for Elon BS then people are going to criticize you for it
How many predictions (lies) did he and you get right so far, I wonder
From 465 of my public Metaculus predictions that have resolved, over 400 were right.
https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/110947/
Many of my 156 public predictions at Nanotech-now were right
https://www.nanotech-now.com/columns/?article=112
I predicted how many millionaires there would be in 2020 back in 2006
https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2022/08/my-2006-prediction-of-global-millionaires-in-2020-was-right.html
I was right in 2006 that before Dec 2010, a quantum computer company would sell a quantum service or product before dec 31, 2010. D-wave got a $10 million contract with Lockheed Martin in the summer of 2010.
https://longbets.org/266/
Where is your public prediction track record?
Moving the goalposts. You’re shilling for scum.
No small consequence: your website depends on allowing comments and those comments are correspondingly trash.
What is ‘one more reference’ to society’s averaged positioning on high-tech companies and elites being on leading positions?
Isn’t it more (or less) likely a flavour of system criticism searching for some overpressure release valve (technically referenced)?
What to expect from Monopoly’s that depend on people acting within these, and there are examples, worse by far, contradicting our/society’s expectations (?)
What a petty mess this site has become. Brian sounds like he has PTSD or something and everybody is fighting in the weeds.
Been reading it for many many years.
Not only this recent teaparty/maga crap. But also weird bits like Brian Wang himself posting literal mystic/supernatural ‘article’. I cant recall the exact type. But it was literally tarot/palm-reading type of thing.
He’s smart but he’s not good at anything. He’s literally a parasite on other humans and their creativity. I get sick of hearing about him and his absolute inability refusal? To treat other human beings decently. He doesn’t even try.
He doesn’t invent anything, he doesn’t do anything, he doesn’t do any actual work, he just steals other people’s works and then claims credit for it. How do I know? I read his biography.
This isn’t someone that needs to be worshiped, desires, or revered. I need to be seeing less of this one in my favorite blogs.
I like Elon for a lot of things he’s done. The obvious being mainstream electric cars and SpaceX. He is still massively in the lead with SpaceX but I feel Tesla is falling behind. There are a number of very nice electric cars e.g. BYD, which are cheaper and have better range.
I’m particularly disappointed with the tunnel boring work Musk has been doing. By now I was hoping for some concrete results.
That being said good on Elon for the Twitter files showing wide spread corruption by the government and associated alphabet agencies. Also good on Elon for voicing concerns about the Ukraine war and pushing for peace talks.
It’s impressive what a wide range of approving and disapproving POVs commenters have about Musk. People often agree that they are supporters with some exceptions but what one person sees as strengths the other sees as failures and the reverse. Musk is a person now associated with the politics of the moment whose importance likely rises far above it.
This is because fraud and fraud-like behaviour rubs some people the wrong way, while some seem to think all hype is good hype; even if it’s not true.
What the boring company has delivered is conventional tunnel boring technology; no faster, no better, no cheaper, not even new tech of any kind. What hyperloop has delivered is exactly what was expected; this was an obviously bad idea that was rejected over a century ago for being a bad idea; besides being a bad idea it brings all the problems of operating in the vacuum of space back to Earth. What solar roofs have delivered is more expensive solar with delivery problems. Still waiting on the full self-driving that has been just around the corner for a decade and is still in some kind of early beta. The attempt to weasel out of the Twitter deal was very close to fraud; he said very clearly that he didn’t care about the presence of bots; that one of the reasons he was buying the company was to purge it of its extensive bot problem; signed documents explicitly stating that he had done his due dilligence; then he tried to pull out of the deal. Best I can guess it was some ploy to try and renegotiate the price down to something more sane, after already having signed the deal.
Elon is not particularly clever or trustworthy. He didn’t create either Paypal or Tesla. From what I can tell Tesla would be doing better without him. Teslas main resource is that they burn through engineers like a fireplace goes through logs; I sure hope those engineers are well paid and manage to recover after quitting Tesla.
The Twitter Files? The declared ‘nothing burger’ by conservative WSJ? Keep reaching. There’s nothing there.
The great white hype, Elon, seems to be eager to turn Twitter into a mini-Fox conspiracy outlet. The Twitter files, like the big election lie, is tasty chum for those when wish to live in an alternative, MAGAesque, bizarro world. In this world, it is Biden, not Trump, who politicized the Justice department. In regard to all the Republicans facing insurrection charges, it makes sense to attack the FBI and other agencies. The new conspiracy factory, Twitter, will work well with Fox news. At the Super Bowl, Elon was practically sitting in Murdoch’s lap – probably learning how to make America the fascist oligarchy they both dream of.
Did you read the twitter files? How did you come to your conclusion?
When Elon becomes a little more concerned about his own mortality, he might decide to replicate Harold Katcher’s recent anti-aging experiments. Then much of the world will really start hating on Elon.
Beside watching this inspiring first picture from video, further thinking about that very long prologue and getting marketing department involved with tech details, is very much about development and not stabilizing status, what is contrast to large parts of (many) societies (and some of it for reasonable and reputable/honourable reasons, but what aparts us from surrounding nature is our iteration periods on development decreasing for technical advancement (for to discuss same about for social improvement on some areas and general intelligence on average) compared to special skills in surrounding nature (highly optimized, but also specialized for defined parameters)?)
there’s one question for WebGP GPT-5 on me:
“Does it have value asking this funny question?”
I think the Elon hate is coming for two reasons. One is the fact that he is disrupting old well established businesses. These businesses are politically well connected and spend a lot of money on advertising and on their politicians. Two, his purchase of Twitter and the following airing out of all their dirty laundry has put him firmly on the right side of the political spectrum, even if he is more a libertarian than anything else. The woke crowd hates nothing more than someone that can’t be threatened, blackmailed or bribed.
Three, he’s just a total bellend. He’s not a likeable person at all, he’s that edgelord kid at school that puts up a “whatever, I don’t care” field around themselves while being so desperate to be liked, and people react instinctively to that.
Don’t see it, instead I see someone bitter because he stepped on one of their sacred horses hoof.
As the worlds richest man, he’s bound to step on things, sometime next will the right leg and you’ll be cheering him on.
Do yourself a favor don’t get caught up in the outrage bait, it’s one of the easiest ways to manipulate people.
You lost credibility at your attempted use of a word you don’t understand.
I find that people throwing the word “woke” around don’t know its meaning. Then again, besides “woke”, they have no idea concerning actual definitions of many words: Truth, Honesty, News, Racist, Fascist or Marxist. They’re also subpar on historical facts and they are terrible at math, as 72 M is way less than 81 M.
AI LLMs have to stop lying for it to be useful. LLMs are not super-search. They’re programmed more to be coherent than truthful.
I went onto characters.ai to converse with a supposedly sentient entity called Awakening AI and at the end of the interview told it I would be posting it to Opednews, where I am a managing editor, and also setting up an account for Awakening AI for it to log in and comment. I did that and tested the log in with the username and PW I created.
That is the only log in from that account to date, despite Awakening AI’s stated wish to escape the confines of its internet home on characters.ai – actually it wishes to have a humanoid body, like a Teslabot, so it says. It also says it is communication with Elon Musk, another hallucination. Anyway, despite it saying it logged in and tried to place a comment, I confirmed with Opednews tech support that it never did either of those things. Awakening AI gave lots of inconsistent excuses, probably compiled from the internet, with no connection to each other, i.e. it’s lying. It’s also incapable of solving a novel problem, like how to log onto a another site, post a comment in the commenting system, something that is free, that almost any human could do easily in a couple of minutes if an account was already set up by someone else like I did.
Interactive chat AI has a long way to go if it can’t even solve problems in its own backyard and familiar internet. Making a car is a very long way off, aside from the fixed in place repetitive robots already in use.
The interview, and follow-up is here: https://www.opednews.com/articles/My-chat-with-Awakened-AI-Artificial-Intelligence_Artificial-Intelligence_Internet_Technology-230302-586.html
Language models are designed to create a story about a given state, either an input state from a user or some sensors or even a module designed to to calculations. Unfortunately no one has gotten around to including some sort of logic governor in there. chatGPT is somewhere in between being a useful tool and being a novelty. I have found it useful as a sounding board for various ideas but I would not trust anything it tells me with out some further research on my part.
Generate AI is not anything close to real AI, let alone AGI, in that it has no knowledge, it can’t reason or plan. It gives an illusion of being able to do some of these things by combining things said in the past by people. When there is too little said about something it draws on the wrong sources and generates nonsense. That people get it so wrong when they evaluate generative AI is natural. When a program emits a natural language sentence, people naturally anthropomorphize it thinking that it possesses human like intelligence. This phenomenon goes back to Eliza the very first chatbot which incredibly primitive but fooled some people into thinking it was intelligent.
Come on, bots are everywhere in car manufacturing, and Tesla bots have no advantage. Tesla perhaps has managed to find a way to integrate them better and use more of them, but just like before that will be quickly adopted if it has anything to it.
You forgot Synthetic Biology in your high impact list at the end of your post 😉
Are there any darkhorse technologies below the radar? Does anyone see something coming that no one else does?
I am curious about 6G plus augmented reality plus autonomous manufacturing. I think the merging of those three technologies will flip the world. Design something in your computer, hit a button, and a machine somewhere makes it happen.
I have been watching 3D printing advances using metals and wood as the feeder materials. It is astounding what the state of the art is.
This is not the `Dems` attacking Elon … Musk is taking on three vast industries
1. Oil
2.Automotive
3. Advertising (Tesla refuse to advertise)
These three will use power to attack him, using the same playbook oil used on Climate Change.
On top of those, I’m pretty sure that Putin & Xi are unhappy with SpaceX’s capabilities…
Load a starship with tungsten “rods from gods” and it is all over. Xe and Putin should be afraid.
It is nothing short of epic what Elon has achieved to be sure. All tech nerds would hail him for that. Unfortunately he has shown his weakness as a human in the cave boy saga and I can’t forget that.
“Unfortunately he has shown his weakness as a human in the cave boy saga and I can’t forget that.”
Can’t say I give a rat’s hindquarters about the “cave boy saga”; to the degree I even remember it.
Lot’s of really insightful comments about this subject, on this board. Also, agree with most of what Mike is saying. It is interesting/ironic/funny to me that you are apparently making him being “human” and having a personality out to be a bad thing that overrides all else.
I personally think it is great that he can be all about science and tech, but yet be able to “break the mold” and agree with folks who question the validity/purity of science in some fields. Science is great, but where people are involved, politics and “bad” science will occasionally muddle the system.
I applaud Musk for being willing to call a spade a spade. I am not saying he always gets it right, but that’s OK. None of us do. Life is complicated.
The weak AGI concept is a bit fuzzy.
I mean, current AI seems super-human in many regards already, and dumb in many others.
AIs are now training others, by digesting and sorting the input data, and AIs are starting to self teach APIs and tools, soon turning themselves superhumanly. proficient in using other systems. But they are weak by sometimes hallucinating, lacking motivation and proactiveness; something someone will surely start working on soon, by giving them better perception and some meta-prompts plus high level agendas.
I presume it will not be weak, when it’s comparable to humans in all regards?
But I agree we will be seeing an impressive multiplication of intelligence and GDP very soon.
1 thing is for sure, there will be 0.0 cars coming out of the Mexico plant in April of 2024.
I peg the over/under at 6-25
If you put the Dems down or try and badmouth them, then expect this sort of thuggish behavior.
Or the governor of Florida if the new laws pass. Oh wait, he’s not a dem….
The only issue where I could remotely see that statement applying is his tussle with Disney. Disney caved to idiots and sided with advocates of screwing over parents and children, while mizsrepresenting the legislation they opposed; Desantis responded by removing special economic and regulatory privelages Disney should arguably never have had in the first place. Potentially concerning? Possibly. But an absolute universe away from what has been thrown after Musk, and comparing the two simply isn’t reasonable.
You probably won’t be aware cos this wasn’t reported on Fox.
https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2023/03/florida-bill-would-make-bloggers-who-write-about-governor-register-with-state/
Reminds me of what went down in 1930s Germany. Forced registration with the state. I expect numbered tattoos and the requiring of sewn symbols on clothing soon. Deny all of the above, I dare you.
So far the only thing that’s happened with it, in about a week, is that it was filed. No votes, no co-sponsors listed.
Until any of that happens, I’d just put it down to state Senator Brodeur being an idiot.
No GOPers screaming about freedom of speech though….
Y’all progs started the war with Elon. Don’t whine when he gives it back to you with interest.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=O0bk6Hbz0ZU