Here is a global with national fertility rates. The fertility rate information is outdated as it shows China with 1.43 when it is actually 1.18. All of the national fertility rates have been falling and are about 20-40% lower than in this map.
The current fertility rate for Africa in 2023 is 4.155 births per woman, a 1.35% decline from 2022. The fertility rate for Africa in 2022 was 4.212 births per woman, a 1.31% decline from 2021.
Nigeria’s fertility rate has declined every year since 1979 yet the country has assumed a fixed growth rate for its now over 200 million population based on a controversial headcount done nearly two decades ago. From an average of 6.763 births per woman in 1978, fertility rate in Nigeria has fallen to 5.076 in 2023, according to data by research platform. Nigeria does not perform any census because the leaders do not want to have counts because of politics. Nigeria’s population size has always been subject to debate with many doubting the accuracy of not only the last count in 2006 but even previous ones dating back to the colonial era.
Politicians have an incentive to inflate the numbers because seats at the National Assembly and cash from the federal government are handed out to states based on population.
This is a big problem in estimating current and future Africa population and future global population. IF the world goes from 8 billion people today to 10 billion or 11 billion people by 2100, then all of the increase will be from Africa. Almost half of Africa is not even trying to count how many people they have.
Comparing administrative and survey data across 46 surveys in 21 African countries, researchers found a bias toward overreporting school enrollment growth in administrative data. The average change in enrollment is roughly one-third higher (3.1 percentage points) in administrative than survey data.
There have been reports that China overcounted its population by as many as 100 million people.
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This is so wrong for Uzbekistan with rate 1.73%
Our population will continue to grow at least next 10 years.
There is population momentum. The drop below replacement takes a few decades to peak the population and then drop it. Japan only peaked a few years ago despite decades of sub replacement fertility
Easily solved: Just replace taxes on economic activity with a single tax on liquidation value of net assets and send all tax revenue out evenly to men of draft age to spend as they see fit.
Another political issue of population counts in Nigeria is that the more Muslim north is thought to have a higher fertility rate than the more Christian south and no one wants to clarify that for fear of stirring up tensions between the two. On the one hand, it is believed that the mostly Muslim North is seeing a decline in fertility rates like everyone else but it is also thought that this decline is slowed due to shariah law and religious policies discouraging birth control and encouraging young marriages and large families. So that, combined with the other political issues, will make accurate data hard to come by for some time.
I might suspect that the birthrate for Russia might not be 1.6 anymore, either, but I imagine it is impossible to get good data now, even it ever was possible.
Itll be way lower since they are depleting their reserves of young men
The decision to labor a baby is made by russian woman, not man. Russia is strongly feministic.
Nah, they aren’t. Russia is doing exactly what they intended to do: destroying the Ukrainian military. It is impossible for Ukraine to win. About 8 Ukrainians are dying for every Russian. It’s a disaster for Ukraine and yet oligarchs in Kiev and Washington are making bank on the blood of Ukrainians. They will drag it out as long as they can.
“About 8 Ukrainians are dying for every Russian.”
Where can we get any half-way reliable figures on relative numbers dying?
I would expect both Ukraine & Russia to overcount enemy deaths & undercount their own, at least for public release.
Harold, you are a deceitful Ukrainian propagandist. Ukraine is loosing 14 Ukrainians per Russian. Crawl back to your BBC and CNN hellholes and stop spewing your evil Ukranazi propaganda.
I am half Russian. I support Ukraine though. You English should STOP telling us what is happening in our countries. 100.000’s of Russians and Ukrainians died in the 1st year already. Half the civilization hates us… Even my grand children will pay for #Putin’s game of life and death 😢
Russia has lost 1.5 million men so far from the fiasco from deaths, emigration, desertion, etc. Russians themselves are rebelling against Putin in a rising tide. Russian women just want out.
Russian TFR less than 1.0 now.