There are about 46 EV models being sold in the US in Q1 of 2023 but only 3 or 4 are luxury or larger SUVs in the Tesla Model X category. There 258,888 EVs sold in the Q1 of 2023 in the US but 10368 are in the Model X category. There might only be 9400 if the Lyriq is included as a Model Y category vehicle.
Above the Rivian R1S
The Q1 sales in the category were
6495 Tesla Model X ($97k starting price) 2351 BMW IX ($84k starting price) 968 Cadillac Lyriq (maybe more directly comparable to Model Y, $58k starting price) 552 Rivian R1S ($78000 base + $6000 for 321 mile range instead of 260 + $180 destination charge)
Tesla Model X
BMW IX
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There are ~45 EV models & 2 models (Tesla model 3 & Y) have ~ 58% of the market. Unless they offer significant value or features in excess of 20% on all other models, human preferences would suggest that the law of probability will eventuate & Tesla will start losing market share. My prediction over the next 3 years is that it will come down to 30% of total market I.e. its market share will halve.
That would depend on whether Tesla continues to improve at it’s current pace. Both SpaceX & Tesla are remarkably open about their products … mostly because by the time their competitors copy their designs, they’re two versions further down the road.
wrt SpaceX Elon has considerable advantage over competition, for now.
wrt Tesla that advantage is decreasing daily & this will be like the mobile phone wars with Apple =Tesla ~ 30% market share worldwide.