Elon Musk said yesterday that Tesla will have its ChatGPT moment late this year or next year. He was referring to when Tesla Full Self Driving is capable of replacing the human driver and making the driving experience both safer and more comfortable.
IF FSD is fully complete late this year and robotaxi next year, then this will also vastly accelerate Teslabot deployment. A super useful and commercially irresistible Teslabot could arrive in 2024-2026. Robotaxi and robot trucks makes useful Teslabots easier. The robots can hop on and hop off low-speed rolling robopallets in factories. The robopallets would be based off of full robotaxi. The robots could be moved around outdoors by robotaxis and robotrucks.
The FSD is fully working transition would scale to millions as the software updates is rolled out over two to four months.
If Elon is right this time, the speed from fully robotaxi FSD to the at scale FSD/Robotaxi/Teslabot transformation would be within 2 year. The end of 2025 scale would be 15M robotaxi and 10-30M bots in 2025. Factory production in Gigamexico would be so fast with the unboxed process and with Bots that leveraged robopallets. Robopallets are already used in Amazon factories.
Reaching billions of Teslabots could be achieved within ten years of a fully commercially compelling Teslabot.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
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FSD next year/this year since 2016….people and I are tired of this particular prediction.
It’s 2023, in 2016 (listening to SpaceX timelines) I thought we will have small base on Mars. but the sad truth is that we can’t even design reliable engines for Starship, having all these years.
I was naive optimist and believer when I was younger. Finally I realized that it’s much harder problem than we thought it was. Practical Teslabots probably will be even harder than FSD. We probably need AGI for these 2 technologies to work. We can have it in 2025 or 2040, we don’t have a clue.
Still, I am hoping that things will finally accelerate in the next few years.
SpaceX’s first test launch of its Falcon Heavy rocket on Feb. 6, 2018, placing Spaceman & Roadster into orbit.
I expect the same spectacular showmanship when Starship arrives upon the lunar surface. Delivering a Cybertruck with Teslabot at the wheel. Why would he not?
Boston Dynamics was far ahead of these 15 years ago,Elon can’t make a car FSD,I doubt his ability in robotics.
Do love Starship!
No, Boston Dynamics isn’t even in the same universe as Tesla on robotics, because they never had the resources to develop robust machine vision or the NN brains of robots. They just cobble together bodies, do bespoke problem solving and make videos. While the videos aren’t fake they also don’t represent real world performance – they’re made over months of trials. Making robot bodies is not the hard part.
“Look at me, look at me, look at me!”
What are the niches where a person can’t or won’t do the job today? Or where they’ll only do it with high pay?
Military, industrial, energy, mining, remote – these areas contain millions of new and existing jobs that should value Optimus much more highly than factory or warehouse work. Assuming Optimus can do the jobs.
Australian mines pay high salaries (and housing, and weekly flights) for truck drivers for mines because the jobs are remote, the living conditions are unpleasant.
Musks timeline is ALWAYS wrong.
True, but it always eventually happens.
It’s hard to know.
Elon is almost always wrong on the timeline but mostly right on the substance eventually. A cheap enough robot that can understand general ideas and be able to execute would be world changing in so many ways – far far greater than FSD IMHO.
Much agreed on first sentence. It will happen, but WHEN is the big question. My guess is that he may be off by 100% on the timing, but it will not be many years in the future, or unobtainable.
Elon’s continuous right wing conspiracist dog whistling is not only destroying his own credibility but also severely damaging his companies reputation. And he doesn’t care. Good will was a major factor in Tesla’s rise and it seems its also a major factor in its decline. What a waste.
I wish it was just dog whistling. Tweeting that George Soros hates humanity is naked and up front. The comment about his seeming like Magneto was covered by the comic book character’s being complex – they were not going to make a Holocaust survivor a pure villain. So Musk had to go and make it delusional and ugly in a follow up tweet.
You can’t simply take an accusation off of the table because of a person’s race. For heaven’s sake – do you really think that a wealthy multi billionaire that overtly looks to use his wealth to shape the course of global politics is less likely to do so for selfish or sociopathic ends because they happen to be Jewish? Soros is a Jewish multi billionaire who placed _himself_ in the arena of global politics; it is no more anti semitic to call out the purpose and impact of his actions than it is to call out Bill Gates or Jeff Bezos.🙄
Tweeting that Soros hates humanity cuts through the B.S and gets straight to the truth.
Since Optimus uses the same HW4 as FSD, it should have the ability to drive as well as FSD effectively pre-trained and easily applied. It ought to be able to convert any vehicle into a 1950’s SciFi style Robotaxi just by Optimus sitting down in the drivers seat.
FSD cars have more sensors.
He’s not that right wing. In fact, I’d call him a bit of a lefty. But the good thing is he values free speech. A lot of lefties hate him for that.
They would prefer everybody talked like a Teslabot with a woke file.
Tweets like the Soros one or the one about Paul Pelosi would be considered psychotic-dangerous Right Wing by a lot of people. They’d have gotten a lot of people fired or ended long relationships. I agree that on balance he’s not that Right Wing – the lunatic fringe Right slips through periodically and it can have a corrosive effect. The Soros tweet was Nazi level anti-semitism and people don’t forget that because it has real world implications. Valuing free speech is fine – but his own exercise of it like anyone else’s has never been consequence free.
Ludus’ reaction to Elon Musk having an opinion he doesn’ like
https://youtu.be/wDYNVH0U3cs
I respect the guy, even though I disagree with a lot of his Left wing views, he is funny and people don’t get his humor, he is smarter than most people, but he is mostly using common sense. He lost a few points by voting for Biden though, not very smart, but, he at least admits his mistakes. As far as Twitter goes, he made the right choice by cutting back and doing the best with the mess it was in. Anyways, his tweets are his expression of thought in real time, mistakes and all, he just wants to share his thoughts to the public, because, maybe he believes in what he has to say, JUST LIKE THE REST OF US ON SOCIAL MEDIA.
You make several false assumptions:
1. Musk is not right-wing. He is a centrist. He voted for Biden. Your description of him says a lot about you and your biases.
2. Elon wants a large market for his vehicles, not just the 20% population of US and European leftists such as yourself. Most truck drivers (cyber truck and Tesla semi) lean populist in their thinking. They thought Elon was a leftist greenie who hated them. He made a lot of inroads with them with his purchase of Twitter.
3. Elon is by far the most beloved CEO/entrepreneur amongst millennials and Gen Zs. He desperately needs them to buy Tesla’s ‘$25,000’ car.
4. Tesla’s stock did take a dive recently. A combination of macroeconomic conditions, Tesla having shrinking profit margins, and leftists selling off their stock because they were mad at Elon.
That’s okay. Gave me a huge buying opportunity at around $125 per share.
Elon is not afraid to speak the truth and tell it like it is.
Period.
I think those numbers are too optimistic.
Robotaxis were promised quite some time ago and they are sill far away from them. They need full self driving for that. I don’t think they will get to true full self driving in next 2 years.
Their system is good, drives well. Nevertheless there is always possibility of some unexpected56 exception, which software without true intelligence won’t know how to handle.
Tesla bots will be easier, faster to build than cars. Now they are in prototype phases. I think limited mass production in 2025, I dunno.
Unboxed car manufacturing method is interesting. They want to break car into smaller modules. That will likely work, save them money and time. We will see about that.
Cool. At least it no longer looks like a mockup.
And with the latest batch of advances in AI, it also looks as if they can give them the brains to be useful in a human world.