PG&E, one of California’s main energy utility, CEO Patti Poppe spoke with Elon Musk. Elon said that he is certain that global electrical output will need to triple to handle the electrification of transportation and the heating of buildings. This trend and increasing development could increase energy usage by ten times for developing countries like India.
This is clear as 25% of world oil is used for cars and trucks. The oil is mostly used for trucks.
Elon said, if the electricity per capita trend continues from the start of the industrial revolution then the world could reach a terawatt per person. This must be a trend does not include the use of wood before electricity.
Elon indicated that if current global powerplants were used at full capacity we could double energy available by just adding the energy storage (like megapacks) to hold the power for the time when it is needed. Storing full output global powerplant production for 12 hours would require about 17.8 million megapacks. If it takes 15 years to replace the megapacks, then this would mean the need to produce about 1.2 million megapacks per year.
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It will increase but I doubt three folds. The increased efficiency of heat pumps and the installation of solar panels will limit the need for increased generation.
It is fun to watch commenters correct Elon. He is just a little boy compared to them. These commenters have accomplished so much in their lives because they were able to see far into the horizon. If only Elon were as smart.
He’s mostly wrong.
It’ll triple or more in places like California that are mostly residential and commercial loads and mostly gas heating. The EV and heating loads are large compared to the small incumbent loads.
Areas with large incumbent loads from HVAC or industry will see smaller relative growth.
If superconductors are real and rapidly adopted, the growth might be reduced.
Increased efficiency due to superconductors is very likely to increase energy use.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox
@Jim Baerg No, all room-temperature superconductors would do is reduce ohmic heating in a system. It’s efficiency gains all-round. It wouldn’t mean we’d use more phones, cars, etc., since those markets are already saturated. It just means we’d lose less energy in use (and transit). If we all started building new AC/heating units because they’re cheaper to run the use would increase, but not as much as if we didn’t have superconducting elements in there.
More like the cooling of buildings. Technology Review had an insightful piece of the explosion of air conditioning to counter the ever growing world wide temperatures we’re experiencing. The addition of several hundred million power hungry air conditioners alone will require at least a tripling of output, being the single most globally common energy intensive device, until L2 chargers become standard in most households.