Elon Musk has posted that Tesla FSD 12.4 will start its rollout next week. Tesla FSD 12.4 has been almost completely retrained. The final touches are for comfort, as it sometimes accelerates or brakes too fast for most people’s taste.
12.4 has almost completely retrained models. The final touches are for comfort, as it sometimes accelerates or brakes too fast for most people’s taste.
12.5 and 12.6 are in various stages of testing. We’re getting into rare, complex situations, for example: going down a narrow,…
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) May 8, 2024
Tesla FSD 12.5 and 12.6 are in various stages of testing. Tesla is getting into rare, complex situations. For example: going down a narrow, one-way road, encountering a road closure and having to reverse out to find a new route.
That closure also needs to be communicated to the rest of the fleet, so you don’t get a whole bunch of Teslas stuck down a road.
The release of FSD 12.4 will start the FSD summer of judgement for Tesla FSD and robotaxi. We are heading to a fork in the road where the bulls and bear version of reality gets decided. But it does not just determine Tesla as company. If successful this would be a transformation from a world without self driving cars to one that has self driving cars. This will be a shocking new world.
Uo until this summer, people could make a plausible case that self driving cars might never happen. Robotaxi would be 6 years, 10 years away or might never happen. If Tesla FSD 12.4, 12.5 and 12.6 live up to the hype then the transition will start at scale and no robotaxi case will collapse.
China could approve Tesla robotaxi tests in a dozen cities before the end of 2024.
Probably start rolling out 12.4 next week
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) May 8, 2024
There were previous worldchanging shifts. The transition from horse carriages to cars happened from 1900 to 1913 in the USA.
The Kitty Hawk moment in 1903 was where the impossible became possible. However the FSD Kitty Hawk moment will be with 4 million cars in the US and China becoming aware over about 6 months.
The showdown over what is real and what is a real financial faceoff. There is over $17 billion worth of Tesla shares being shorted by those who believe FSD 12.4, FSD 12.5 and August 8, 2024 robotaxi reveals will be failures.
Is now the time to explore using options to get short $TSLA?@RiskReversal lays out his thesis on Elon Musk's EV company: pic.twitter.com/w9fjCceEau
— CNBC's Fast Money (@CNBCFastMoney) May 7, 2024
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
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Zzzzzzzz so many promises … Musk seems a little unstable and getting worse
You can’t comment until you drive it. Every version I get gets better and better.
It’s unfortunate that the free month of FSD was with a version that behaved in a way that gave many an impression that it couldn’t be trusted. I pushed my wife to try it on her Model Y and the excessive acceleration from stopped and the double stopping and excessive cautiousness at intersections caused her to conclude that it didn’t know what it was doing.
Its an interesting question. On the one hand, FSD will experience and learn from more exceptional circumstances than any individual human ever has, due to the multiuser input. On the other hand, there will always be new exceptional circumstances that FSD experiences due to the complexity of the real world. The question will be whether FSD will be able to manage – to an acceptable level – these inevitable new situations. I suspect that with some voice command override mechanisms, this type of situation will be manageable.
Robotaxi is nothing like moving from horses or inventing flying machines.
Compared to ride share, robotaxi reduces cost. End of list.
Reducing cost is great, valuable, and important.
But it’s more like a “Mint Mobile” moment than a “kitty hawk.” Really important to Uber and Lyft, and a nice little bonus for everyone else who prefers paying for services over owning assets.
Fatal Suicide Drive for the same suckers who bought Tesla’s. The sane world is laughing at you.
We will see if promises will come to reality or not. I don’t blame the delay – 12.4 was promised to the end of April, 1 month delay is ok. 6 – 12 months to get more clear picture if it was marketing and years of false promises, “always the next year” or not. I still think they need real intelligence to deal with exceptions and we don’t have AI.