The biggest concern for the US Air Force is if takes over 15 years to build its full order of even just 100 B-21 Raiders then the new stealth bomber could be outdated before the last get made. Technology is increasing at a rapid rate. Artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning, quantum computers, autonomous systems, etc. – are evolving constantly, and many of the current platforms could likely be obsolete by the time the platforms reach full-rate production (FRP).
Autonomous wingman drones could be made faster, at lower cost which would enable a constantly updated fleet.
Despite secrecy and security measures, only 24-30 B-21s are expected to be operational in the next decade, leading to concerns about adequate numbers for potential conflicts with China and Russia.
There are currently at least six prototype Northrop Grumman B-21 Raider bombers in various stages of production.
The first six are coming in at about the $550-600 million that was budgeted. However, inflation of 25%+ could force higher prices for later units. The problem is there is a 1983 law that re-examines military procurement when budget overruns rise over 15% (the Nunn-McCurdy Act).
Northrop Grumman reported a nearly $1.6 billion pre-tax charge on the B-21 Raider program in the last quarter of 2023, as the stealth bomber moved into its low-rate initial production phase.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
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One way or another the US will need a piece of equipment that can fly heavy duty 10T + bombs and there is no drone in the horizon that can do that.
The US has not used a stealth bomber for an operational stealth required mission since the B1 entered service in the early 90’s. They have been used to salvo large volume target areas in uncontested airspace and show of force missions almost exclusively. So why are we buying more stealthy long range bombers? Standoff large capacity air to surface missile carriers could be made from tanker or P8 type large non-stealth aircraft, or large capacity drones that are not stealthy. The B21 does not make sense.
It would be impossible to get a large conventional plane near Russia or China, in case of a conflict. Stealth bombers are certainly needed for that. Or submarines, that’s probably the only two options.
There is no way for you to know “that”. The whole way of us to do that “in a quiet way”, is for people to do that, in a way others don’t notice. What’s important, is the development of new technologies (and what’s more important, new ideas that create the future we live in now). OK gang, I can’t predict the future, but know what? I can imagine what it could be based on what I know now now. This is my POV. I know certain technologies will advance, and be not predictable. The technology in our future will not be something we anticipate. No, really.
In the 1960’s, we thought the future would be an extension of what we understood at that time. We thought the future would be the “Jetsons”. An extension of what we to a limited extent, we understood at the time. This (IMO) is a major problem in trying to predict the future. It’s not anticipating new technology, it’s trying to anticipate how any society deals with change’s with in it’s culture.
Allow me to give you my definition between society, and culture. This is just my opinion you understand.
A culture, is a “foundation template”. It’s something that endures. A “society” is to me the expression of any one culture, at any one time. It’s why music taste changes, or fashions, or why and how people in any community evolve.
What makes any culture endure? I don’t know. But lets look at ancient Roman cultures we still follow the rules of. That Roman society died about the year 500 to 600 ad/ce according to the modern calendar. What happened between the years 500 and 600/to 650 AD is very hard to explain. What happened, at that time was shocking enough that people (in Europe) lost the “concept, or mind-set” of what money was. And this, lasted for generations.
The whole idea of the Renaissance was becoming awake to concepts of the abstract. Money is an abstract concept. It, whatever “it” is, has no value. Unless you give it so. Appreciating beauty, in a painting or image does not happen, if your only concern, is staying breathing at any one moment. What happened at the start of Europe’s “dark ages” was powerful enough to destroy the most powerful empire the world has ever known? Was it some climate disaster? An asteroid strike or volcano combination? Who knows.
But it was so total, it took us humans a thousand years to crawl up up from the dirt, to the sky we used to live in. Oh please, don’t claim (without proof) ancient aliens built constructions we can’t understand. Until you understand, ancient humans could have built such things, we have forgotten how. Know why I believe this? It’s really simple.
The great cathedrals of medieval Europe. Ever seen one in person? It’s jaw dropping. Some of the foundation stones are the size (and a lot more mass) then an SUV. We know how these amazing buildings were built, and with what, because the Catholic Church, kept meticulous records. Of who did what, and how they did it. It’s not so easy to find such anal detail in how say they built the pyramids. After all, “such engineering knowledge” at that time and place, was considered sacred.
Another example of connecting “knowing something” with religion, is a bad idea. Religion, IMO should not be based on what you “know” which is impossible. But based on what you feel and believe. What you know, others can see and agree or not “yah, that makes sense, or does not”. What you believe only you can feel. And it’s impossible to prove, or disprove, that.
Sending a conventional plane, a “cruise missel carrier” to target any enemy, would be wildly obvious. Any “serious” enemy (like the Russians) would in a moment of high tension, be watching were these planes were based, and noticed when they took off. We know because they did just that. Russian agents watched our bases where are bombers were based, and when “things happened”, Moscow knew almost in real time. No kidding. Any lumbering conventional aircraft would be targeted, and taken out, just to be safe. They can always say “oops ,one of our guys got a little nervous”. Hell, they have used that excuse before.
But an aircraft, once airborne they can’t track and don’t know where it is actually an incentive for all sides to talk. So hopefully, no bombs drop. And no planes get shot down (I’m sure they would shoot our planes down, if they could see them…) Just a thought.
What’s new? B1, B2, now B21. 50 years of designing and building a next generation bomber, only to decide they’re too expensive to make enough to make a difference, but build so few of them, to make them eye wateringly expensive.
I don’t doubt drones will dominate air combat eventually. But there is an innate robustness manned aircraft have in selective areas I don’t see in drones. “Bob” makes the point about hacking. Electronic Warfare (EW) can screw with or block navigation signals, communications, sensors, even rewrite code inserting “new” instructions/objectives. Countermeasures to EW attacks are often developed after an “unexpected attack method” reveals itself. Pilots are by nature, very good at adapting to unanticipated threats, or just unanticipated issues. IMO, in some scenarios, it just makes sense to have a pilot(s).
Drones will increase in number and mission objectives. A lot can be made, fast, with new technology very quickly getting into the air. This last point is really important. Drones could also maneuver in ways no human could tolerate. In the 1970’s, we had to “put a leash” on our F-16. It was technically capable of pulling G’s humans could not tolerate. Drones have many advantages. Manned aircraft have several important, unique ones as well.
The biggest mystery of all? Whether anti-drone technology becomes cheap, easy, and plentiful. Then all the drones in the world are worthless.
Next step, contemplate how they will be deploying advanced iteratively developed drones, autonomous wingman fighters, smart cruise missiles etc in an era when Starship is available to cheaply move stuff anywhere on the planet in less than an hour and StarShield is available to communicate with it.
Who said the DOD was utterly clueless and unselfaware. Great they can at least consider things that are obviously true.
they’ll keep it, you can’t hack or spoof a human in flight.
if it’s bad, they’ll reduce the number made or cut something else from the budget, or use the bombers as drone carriers.