XAI is releasing Grok 2 in beta. This will be about equal to OpenAI GPT4 artificial intelligence models.
Elon Musk has said XAI is assembled 100,000 Nvidia H100 chips for a total of 400 Exaflops of compute to train Grok 3 by the end of this year. Grok 3 will be at about the power of still unreleased OpenAI GPT 5.
Elon has also said XAI will be setting up 300,000 Nvidia B200 chips in mid-2025 for AI training. This will have 15 times the compute power of the 100,000 Nvidia H100 chips. This will increase another 15 times in 2026-2027 with one million next generation Nvidia Rubin chips.
This increases the cost of the AI data centers. As the cost of the data centers reaches $150 billion this will require revenues that match or exceed the costs.
Revenue would need to be from AI generated software, AI supplied IT or business consulting, AI queries replacing internet search, robotaxi or humanoid bots.
Here, Brian Wang describes the scaling of Grok 4 and 5 using 300,000 twenty Petaflop Nvidia B200 chips in 2025 and going beyond to 1 million Nvidia Rubin chips.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts.Ā He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.
It seems that the Chinese are entering the game with their Taichi-II photonic system, over 1000 times more energy efficient than H100. This could significantly change the presented calculations.
https://techovedas.com/chinas-taichi-ii-chip-worlds-first-fully-optical-ai-processor-outperforms-nvidia-h100-in-energy-efficiency/
So XAi spent something like 4 billion dollars on 100k H100, basically emptying the cash reserves of the company. 300k B200 will cost at least 12 billion, meaning Elon will have to make another financing round. Who will invest that kind of money into a company that has close to zero revenue and will keep burning 12-20 billion per year?
Maybe XAi will spend half of the cash buying NVidia shares.
Even with zero green house gas emission, global warming is inevitable as we get closer and closer to type I civilization. One day we might build space elevators, not to transport goods but to transport heat to space to cool earth down.
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Where is all the training data going to be coming from? If AI is going to be replacing human workers, drivers and content producers, then its quickly going to become one AI’s output being another AI’s input, and its going to become turtles and hallucinations all the way down.
That’s a great way of framing it.