Boeing has been constantly losing money for the last five years with a combined $25 billion in losses.
Everything about Boeing has been shockingly bad for over five years. All of their commercial and military plane models have big problems. All of their space vehicles and rockets have big problems.
Will Boeing turnaround over the next ten years or will they fail over the next ten years?
Boeing is one of the big give prime military contractors. However, the emergence of SpaceX and now new military startups like Anduril, there could be a shift away from Boeing for space and defense. On the commercial side, there is the belief that Boeing is safe in the Airbus-Boeing Global Duopoly.
If Boeing cannot turn around its constant public plane failures and quality problems (wheels falling off, door plugs falling out) then there could be more cancelled orders.
SpaceX Starship could emerge in three to six years or so to compete for international cargo delivery. This could be about 20% of the plane market.
China will continue to invest in COMAC and a few more years could see adequate engines and fuel efficiency on narrow body airplanes. China getting a good enough plane could see the significant loss of China orders on narrow body planes in about five years. China could emerge as a wide body plane competitor in the 2030 and makes its own planes. This would be about 20% of global orders.
Boeing has fired the head of its space and defense unit. Starliner has cost Boeing $1.6 billion in overruns since 2016. Since the start of 2022, the defense and space division as a whole has lost $6 billion, slightly more than Boeing’s airplane business.
Kelly Ortberg became Boeing’s new president and CEO on August 8, 2024, succeeding Dave Calhoun. Ortberg brings over 35 years of aerospace leadership experience, previously serving as CEO of Rockwell Collins and in leadership roles at Collins Aerospace and RTX.
He is tasked with turning around Boeing after years of financial losses and safety/quality issues, particularly with the 737 MAX program.
Ortberg has moved his office from Chicago back to the Seattle area to be closer to Boeing’s commercial airplane operations.
He has already made some executive changes, including the departure of Ted Colbert, head of Boeing’s defense division, in September 2024.
There is a major strike by over 33,000 workers that just started in September 2024.
As of Q2 2024, Boeing has cash and investments totaling $12.6 billion. They have a backlog of $516 billion in orders (about 7 years worth of orders). They have $10 billion in undrawn credit facilities.
Earlier in 2024, a lawyer for the families of the Ethopia 7373Max crash said the Justice Department appears determined to defend the agreement it brokered in secret with Boeing. A federal judge and an appeals court ruled last year that they had no power to overturn the Boeing settlement. Families of the crash victims hoped the government would reconsider prosecuting Boeing after the Jan. 5 door-plug blowout on the Alaska Airlines jetliner as the plane flew above Oregon.
Airbus Group had 6 bad quarters during the COVID pandemic but is back to $3-4 billion per year in net income. Airbus has about $72 billion per year in revenue while Boeing has about $77 billion per year in revenue.
Airbus Group is valued at about $110 billion while Boeing is at $95 billion.
SpaceX is a private company that is valued at over $210 billion. SpaceX via Starlink revenue could surpass Boeing revenue in about three years.
The 737 MAX crisis was a major factor, starting with two deadly crashes in 2018 and 2019, leading to the grounding of the aircraft for over 1.5 years. Boeing lost billions in fines, canceled orders, and compensation to clients.
There were production issues with the 787 Dreamliner caused another major dip in Q4 2021 of more than $4 billion.
There are also problems with the 777 and 777X.
There are ongoing quality and safety concerns have led to reduced production and delivery rates.
Defense, Space & Security Division
KC-46A Pegasus and the V-22 Osprey have had losses and crashes and problems.
In Q3 2022, Boeing reported a substantial loss of $3.3 billion, partly due to problems in the defense business. The division has faced challenges with fixed-price defense development programs, contributing to overall company losses.
In the Space division, there are losses and problems with the Starliner and the SLS (Space Launch System).
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
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If they would have just had longer spreadsheets and more diversity, they would not be in the bad shape they are now.
This is what you get with finantialisation. Intel is on the same trajectory as are the car companies. The law needs to change to balance shareholder interest with customer/ consumer interest. .
DEI wokeness plus greedy shareholders burnt the candle from both end.
This hardly surprises me. For decades Boeing personified not just the best of what a corporation could be, but the best of what a company SHOULD be. When a companies mindset goes from “did we do everything we could”?, what did we do we might have done better? To: “Did we do anything anyone else will notice”? Seriously? And Boeing wonders why it’s profits are crashing (no pun intended)?
X-37 is doing quite well…Boeing’s best there…and B-52 will likely be flying after Starship goes to the scrapyard
I think the argument is that early Boeing which changed somewhere in the 80’s and 90s was a superior organization to what exists now.
So no one is picking on the B52, or other earlier products.
I think your right about the B-52. Makes the Energizer Bunny look like a rock…
According to the market logic, Boeing should have been gone by now.
Brian,
Would a starship have enough fuel to relaunch here on earth a second time? I do see space x generating revenue from taking orders from shipping companies, however infrastructure wont be available everywhere, you need quite some space to safely launch a rocket, maybe there will be a lot of launches from marine environments, could be a solution.
They shifted focus from making good stuff to making money.
Usually it is very hard to turn around, Ortberg needs to get his commissar hat and a chainsword, and not be wrong!