Three Major Iterations of Teslabot Should Reach Million Unit Volumes

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Nearly an hour into the All in Summit talk, Elon Musk discussed the Teslabot. Elon says that three major iterations into Teslabot will see the Teslabot majorly perfected. This should be in 4 to 6 years.

The bots will be $10,000 to $20,000 cost.

Humans are humanoid meatbots. There should be at least a three to one ratio of Humanoid bots to humans. This would be on the order of 25 to 40 billion bots.

Next-generation Optimus hand, which we have in prototype form, has actuators that have moved to the forearm, just like humans, and they operate the fingers through cables, just like human hands.”

If you just provide Grok to the robot, then the robot has personality.

After three production versions of Optimus and scaling to 1m+ units, the cost (labor + material) won’t be more than $10k.

The useful humanoid robot opportunity is the single biggest opportunity ever.

8 thoughts on “Three Major Iterations of Teslabot Should Reach Million Unit Volumes”

  1. When Elon said a million bots per year by 2030, it shocked me. I thought they would be around 10 million mark, by 2030. I think he’s sand bagging a bit.

  2. People aren’t going to pay the full value of the earliest Teslabots to do housework. But factories will be willing to pay for that value. One million means that there will be only one humanoid robot per every 8,000 people on Earth so at that point humanoid robots will be rare and so will be used for only the highest value jobs. It’s when humanoid robots reach perhaps 500 million that they will start showing up in the homes of wealthy people.

  3. When Optimus costs $10k to mass produce though and they are producing a million or so a year, it doesn’t imply that’s what the price will be. Since it’s intended as a drop in replacement for most jobs, there are a lot of use cases where it could save employers a lot and still be leased for a lot. A single Optimus might replace 4 production line workers each of which costs $100k a year all in. [3 shifts + 1 for vacation, sick leave etc] If Tesla leased it at $15k per month including all expenses and training, a user might save $220k a year while Tesla gets $180k in revenue a year with very high profit margin.

  4. Seems like a great way to take over the world and make yourself emperor of earth or the solar solar system. Give every person 3 robots and when the time is right you either kneel or the robots get rid of you. .

  5. I have to ask: if we’re going to see millions of humanoid robots, won’t we need to decrease the human population by quite a bit? Because those robots are also going to take up room. Granted, they’ll be taking up room in factories and homes, not necessarily out and about. Maybe I’m worrying about space where that isn’t a worry.

    • We almost all have vacuum cleaners and many appliances. Each bot is about 50 kilograms. Appliances are 100 kilograms to 200 kilograms. Big TVs are 30-50 kilograms. There were 668 million appliances sold globally in 2020. This includes major appliances and small appliance. There are about 12 billion appliances in the world.

      When all of the appliances were made did we decrease the human population ? If we doubled or 10X the number of appliances then so what?

      The current global dog population is estimated to be around 900 million and rising, with the global cat population coming in at about 600 million. Approximately 80 billion farm animals are reared for food in the world each year.

    • Humanoid Robots need MUCH less space than humans. If you consider Mars settlement as an example, a Starship might ultimately carry 100 humans and that would be uncomfortably close for long periods of time. A cargo Starship with no life support or other amenities, could carry 2500 humanoid Teslabots easily, packed together as freight. On Earth, your home Teslabot might “live” in a closet with an outlet and induction charger pad. It wouldn’t need any more than having its batteries charged pretty much like your phone or a roomba.

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