Trump talks about working with SpaceX and Elon Musk to reach Mars before Jan 2029. There are two launch windows in late 2026 and in late 2028. It is possible to launch outside of launch windows by going with far less payload and far more fuel.
SpaceX Starship with refueling in orbit would be able to have 9-10 kilometer per second delta-V. This is far more than the typical 3.6 kilometers per second of small final stage launched from Earth.
This higher delta-V enables one-way travel times in the 70-90 day range. There needs to be enough fuel left for a landing. Two or more other Fuel loaded Starships can accelerate out and transfer fuel to enable the main Starship to have fuel for landing with a fast transit. There are specific calculations to determine trading payload for extra fuel and reduced travel times while leaving enough fuel for the landing.
Trump wants SpaceX to reach Mars before the end of his next term (Late Jan 2029). Two major windows, 2026 and 2028. 2028 would need have an early departure with lower payload to reach Mars before Late Jan 2029. #spaceX @WR4NYGov @farzyness @SawyerMerritt https://t.co/XDIympXZfe
— nextbigfuture (@nextbigfuture) September 21, 2024



Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.
I am going to be screen capping all the TDS and hysterics here for future reference. It will be interesting to see how far off from reality many of you end up being.
Alas, Musk is committed with a potential Trump’s administration.
He cut all ties with the Dems by outing himself as an infidel an unbeliever, and by allowing un-thoughts and un-people in their X.
They will go after him in case of their triumph.
Trump has no role in the Mars colony other than keeping government and corrupt activists out of the way.
Trump got it done in construction and TV. He was interrupted by voter fraud when getting it done in government.
Trump is a monster, who doesn’t give a damn about EV’s or space travel. He is one of the biggest liars I know. If he had a mother, he would probably sell her to get elected.
Yup. Trump is a serious SOB. Which so many Americans STILL do not GET! He’s in it for him, alone, and if the American people live or die, ONLY MATTERS to him if he does well. What happens to you? Hey, saying he “want’s to make America great again” denies the obvious. America IS GREAT, and has been for a very long time. We’re incredible as a nation that offers opportunity to whoever has the balls to imagine what is not, but what they want. And our people create technology that create the very nature of what our world is, and will become.
Trump? Is a babbling idiot. Never a good sign. And a mean SOB, always a much worse sign.
Why do people imagine a 78-year-old is in it for him? Doing anything past retirement age is a sincere act of public service. It’s not the universe of altered carbon… He might have 10 more good years. I don’t know a lot of Sharp 80 year olds… The guy is literally spending his last good years trying to disrupt the state a bit. I support that. That said I take him less seriously now mostly because he went to the wailing Wall and wants to make Don Bongino the FBI director. As far as him finally defusing the Ukrainian situation… He certainly will and there’s nothing more important then diffusing that conflict. Any deregulation that comes after that is gravy.
The trouble is his way of defusing the Ukraine conflict will mean Russian tanks at the gates of Warsaw and Kishinev.
Trump hasn’t clarified how he would end the war. The best indicators are his former national security advisors and PM Cameron who indicated that he would draw a line at the line of control and then support either side willing to accept the line. Whichever side didn’t take the deal would find the US either overly supporting Ukraine or completely pulling Ukrainian support. So, the US would force the war to an end.
Oh please. Pathological narcissism and self-pleasuring ego has no age limit.
“…America IS GREAT…”
America is a former bright and cheery strip mall that went broke and is now a garbage dump for the third world.
If these people are so great they are bringing in, why is it costing us $450 billion a year to support them?
“Garbage dump for the third world”? Costing us $450 billion a year? Where do you come up with crap statements like this? America is not great (and you think Trump will make everything better?) Haven’t traveled much outside the US, have you?
You know him?
Harris is a bigger monster who is evil and wants to destroy all normal Americans. She is the biggest liar I know, not just one of them. She took the Democratic party nomination without getting voted in for it and should not be the nominee. She, in fact, not “probably”, had an affair with a married government official and received political favors therefrom.
See? This game goes both ways.
This is not a game. It’s deadly serious. Some facts please. Harris WAS voted in at the Democratic convention. She’s a “bigger monster”? Your definition of “monster” must be very, uhm, unique…
Trump is the ultimate bull s*****. Musk delivers but I can’t stand his politics. Get to Mars in 2029? Why? What’s the point? First, lets get back to our moon and stay there. It’s less then 3days using just orbital mechanics and momentum to get there. We have to walk (and not keep falling down, duh) before we can run. We can mine the moon, and use it’s resources to build “whatever”. (Check out the July 1976 issue of National Geographic, to see what a very cool “future” could look like)
But when “getting to Mars” is less a logical destination, then an ideological, or worse a non-sensical definition of where, what and why, we need to appreciate and deal with it. Frankly, Mars is arbitrary. The moon is RIGHT THERE. Let’s grab it!
If you want to sound informed, I would recommend reading Zubrin’s Case for Mars book. Mars is perfectly situated, both in orbital mechanics and in natural resources, to be THE cornerstone of human expansion to the entire rest of the solar system.
Here’s what Mars has going for it (not an exhaustive list):
– a perfect day/night cycle for humans. We actually get an extra half hour of sleep on Mars, which makes it better than Earth
– enough gravity to make health impacts negligible yet low enough gravity to make SSTO and eventually space elevators extremely easy compared to Earth
– enough atmosphere to block most radiation and micrometeors, yet not enough to make launching rockets difficult
– unlimited fuel of all types: carbon, hydrogen, uranium, solar, etc. Mars gets less solar power per square meter, but when you consider the desert climate, it’s comparable to Earth solar
– unlimited and easily mined building materials such as stone, concrete, metals and most importantly, unlimited steel (in contrast to the Moon)
– even after full terraforming, nearly as much land area as Earth (currently equal to Earth)
– two easily accessible moons of its own that are perfect orbital staging areas (compare this to the Moon requiring the Gateway to be built if we want an orbital base)
– enough CO2 and H2O to make para-terraforming extremely easy
– high mountains near the equator that literally poke into space, making for easy land-based transportation into space whenever you want, unlike Earth
– also lowlands near the equator that can be brought to Earth-like conditions of temperature and pressure super easily (Valles Marineris and Hellas)
– close enough to reach with effort, but far enough that Earth politics can’t threaten it
That’s just off the top of my head. You almost couldn’t ask for a better world to colonize as a space-faring civilization.
Several excellent points. I still think we need to get back to our moon, stay there, learn to use it’s resources, before we move on to Mars. Our moon is close, have a serious problem? Getting back to Earth would only take a few days. There’s another aspect of sending humans to Mars that’s very problematic. Spending 6-8 months in interplanetary space (specifically in near zero-G) is VERY BAD for the human body. It’s not just muscles including the heart, and bones that break down. Our immune system, endocrine, and neurological system all go to hell. And that’s just from lack of gravity, I haven’t mentioned radiation exposure.
The way to “limit” damage so people who get to Mars are not riddled with cancer and unable to stand up, if they get to the surface, is to get there A LOT FASTER. Radio frequency plasma drives, NERVA powered systems, and other technologies could get us to Mars in less then 30 days. Not 6-8 months. Much better. But these technologies are still experimental and never yet deployed at an “engineering” level.
I want to go to Mars quickly and safely. It’s going to take us time to develop the necessary technologies. Our moon is looking better every day.
By the way, I am informed, but I know, I will NEVER know enough.
“Two or more other Fuel loaded Starships can accelerate out and transfer fuel to enable the main Starship to have fuel for landing with a fast transit.”
You’re not explicit about this, but it sounds like you’re suggesting using those “two or more” Starships in a disposable mode. But I don’t think Musk is interested in returning to using rockets as disposable.
Man from government wants to help libertarian champion fly to Mars. OK then.
Primarily by terminating previous man from the government’s interference with his doing so…
pay for play at work
And the martian base will be powered by Rossi’s E-cat after reaching mars in 2 hours thanks to the fully autonomous (supervised***) em-drive we can build NOW!
There is a line in Fritz Lang’s Frau I’m Mond that von Braun should have heeded and now Elon: “I will not go to th Moon with criminals”
What are you talking about? Joe Biden’s not running for another term…Oh you mean Kamala Harris. Yes, that is a distinct possibility but Elon should be willing to work with her anyway.
She will side with SLS workers who being union—don’t have to live in a company town:
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/24/opinion/elon-musk-spacex-brownsville-texas.html
I don’t think the FAA should harass SpaceX as it has—then too, a SpaceX employee shouldn’t have to have a go-fund-me when they get injured
https://www.reuters.com/legal/musks-spacex-sued-negligence-accident-that-led-workers-coma-2024-01-26/
https://www.space.com/spacex-technician-coma-rocket-test-accident
NASA/SLS gave America a net positive economic impact of $70 billion in a years time—more than the cost of the whole SLS program on flat budgets.
https://www.nasa.gov/news-release/nasas-economic-benefit-reaches-all-50-states/
It also flew perfectly on its maiden flight.
“NASA/SLS gave America a net positive economic impact of $70 billion in a years time—more than the cost of the whole SLS program on flat budgets.”
It’s a suspicious peculiarity of the way GDP is calculated by governments, that government spending automatically inflates it, no matter how unproductive the spending is. NASA could literally pay people to dig and fill holes, and the cost of doing it would be counted as an increase in GDP.
NASA (and its non-SpaceX partners) are a ‘space promotion’ entity much more than a research, engineer, or build company. Though we shouldn’t quibble on their right to exist or what they have achieved in the past, back in a different World. Neither should we depend on them nor idolize them as a ‘way forward’ or ‘role model’ in any kind of efficiency or ingenuity context. They have served a purpose and continue to provide fair promotion for Space, but as for industrializing, engineering, or planning for commercial/ insititutional/ military use of anything above LEO, they are a liability and something, honestly – of an embarrassment. I worry that the number of aerospace techs, engineers, managers, and visionaries in this country and the EU are not big enough to support mutliple Space-X-type companies such that would provide al lthe Space development and access and tech that the military, commercial investors, and ‘live/work’ in space dreamers should want over the next decade. Perhaps tap the Unis and institutions such as CalTech, MIT, and Uof Arizona to provide support.
I bet Boeing and Lockheed have some super bright, capable people, but managements insistence on hauling in as much cash as possible instead of actually building something has held them back. I bet you could farm out 40% of those people under good management, and they would work wonders.
I also think going to Mars is a huge waste, (not for exploration but for colonies). If you want long sustained space habitation you need to mine the Moon or asteroids and build space habitats. But of course this would take a long time. I think you could do it at low cost “if” you took your time, as you would need to move a lot of mass. Let’s hope some of those “inertia” drives work that do not require expelling matter to move can be built. I have no doubt one can be built, but big doubts the military industrial complex will let them.
[ NASA, in some way, has been always been educational for their projects with documentation available for all people (if not classified) and money spent on projects that were not realized was for the also (very often) inspiring efforts.
Comparing NASA projects and private companies rocket development is not always a suitable approach wrt to effectiveness and cost efficiency, from my POV. ]
“NASA/SLS gave America a net positive economic impact of $70 billion”
$70 billion for one rocket. It’s infuriating and a disgrace. If they continued making them it would be muti-billions for each one launched. This is how you kill the space program. Spend billions of dollars of the people’s money with nothing of note to show for it.
Exciting. Most important thing is to create a fully autonomous and resilient starter base with redundant collection of supplies and well-distributed services. Whether actual humans arrive early 2030 or 2050 or 2100 is of little matter. To facilitate the accomodation, energy, and life support of a perennially-renewing and self-sustaining colony is the issue. The perfect place for humans before humans arrive.
Which should be a separate company, perhaps Hab-X, in keeping with the Brand. Since creating the ‘starter base’ is likely harder than all the propulsion systems to deliver it, I recommend that Mr. X get right on it.
The technology would be in the building materials and applicators, then: say cut-and-cover or tunneling/boring to create first refuges, widely spaced. Dig, pile, back-fill, and create ‘blind-side shells’ from the inside with some kind of cementitious shotcrete-like product. Perhaps with a locally-sourced ceramic reinforcement for tensile strength as splinters or mesh or rods. These covered domes, vaults, and lean-tos would be independent for redundancy but grouped for convenience by passages. Inflatables inserted and fit in would proivde air-tightness and moisture control (bigelow’s tech is still around if not its name – bought and sold a few times?). How much overburden? Sometimes knowing what to pack is just as important as how to get there – interesting to see the itinerary, packing list, and rough encampment layout. Proximity to moisture, specialized minerals if any, and outcrops would set the stage.
Of course I mean the army of networked and autonomous and self-preserving build and maintenance systems/ army/ infrastructure to get it built and to keep it going for decades if not centuries.
So, part TeslaBot, part grey goo, part starlink-Mars to tie it all together? Methinks a dead drop care-package occasionally would be required to supplement Mars’ natural offerings.
More then one package. Long before we can “live off Mars”, we’ll need Amazon to deliver. A hell of a lot.