Tesla’s Perfect Quarter is the Start of a 10X Over Three Years

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Tesla beat analysts estimates by 18% on earnings for Q3. However, it was achieved with repeatable cost improvement in the cars and in the batteries.

Tesla announced that everything that optimists and shareholders have been waiting for is happening.

Profits and growth is back and the future of cars, energy, robotaxi and Teslabot look great and will make huge progress in 2025 and beyond.

The Tesla robotaxi ridehailing is already on the roads and being used by employees.

The Tesla FSD (full self driving) will improve by 5 times in one month and by 1000 times next year. It will surpass human driving in the middle of next year.

Elon Musk: “We do feel confident in Cybercab reaching volume production in 2026. Not starting production, volume production; I think it’s at least 2 million units per year (when ramped).”

Megapacks reached 200 packs per week in Lathrop California. The energy is making over 30% gross profit margins.

Over three weeks ago, I described how Tesla profits would surge.

25 thoughts on “Tesla’s Perfect Quarter is the Start of a 10X Over Three Years”

  1. I think tesla will have to fight to keep up its market share, this is always what seems to be forgotten in the tesla playfield, theres others too, they will improve too and theres always politics. I still prefer my dads s550 merc over any top of the pops tesla. Im neither getting in a driverless cars soon in the coming 10 years, i will like to see how the tesla bots taking over the world hold up against, again, politics and i will be curious what environmentalist think about rocket bases in every city spuging out tonnes and tonnes of burnt methane… i mean, Im sure tesla will grow and all these new profitable sectors are just in the beginning, but musk might not be around to see that all conclude, neither are we.

  2. Are we going to discuss today’s news that Musk holds regular conversations with Putin? The man is a security threat now. He can’t be this close to DOD contracts.

  3. Fortune says he made 34 Billion in a single day with the stock increase. I wonder if he could create a Boeing like company to make planes
    In the US. As well as promote machinist and stem education.

  4. Despite the glorious claims, as per SEC filing, yesterday (october 24 2024) tesla CFO Taneja exercised a stock option and sold 4000 shares. Taneja is the new CFO after the previous one Zachary Kirkhorn resigned one year ago. Any thought Brian?

    • Most investors don’t care much about insider sales. People often sell just because they want to use the cash for something. Stock went up, yay, time to buy a boat or whatever.

      • Still revenue grew only 2% better than nothing, but it is not an outstanding performance as the hype wants people to believe. If they expected 10x 100x growth CFO would have not sold stocks yesterday (24 october 2024)

        Regards.

        • Yes; in the midst of a global – or at least western – slowdown in the EV market, Tesla grew revenue by 2 percent, increased production margins, and grew it’s energy division, while handily beating beating wall Street estimates by a huge margin.

          But that puts less in the positive column than Tesla’s stock sales weigh against it? That doesn’t seem like a valid weighing. :-/

  6. “The Tesla FSD (full self driving) will improve by 5 times in one month and by 1000 times next year. It will surpass human driving in the middle of next year.”

    Fairy tale.

  7. If Trump wins, Elon can be transportation secretary and make any rules he wants, every car must have FSD, bo natter how non functional.
    “Immigrants are poisoning the blood” anyone not WASP is regarded as a cancer, no matter how much they have contributed to our country.

    • If he wins, we will get new Hitler. He had his chance and what did he do? Play golf and lie all the time. Almost nobody could work with the felon and they were resigning. He is even worse now.

  8. Come on Brian…You actually believe this line:
    “The Tesla FSD (full self driving) will improve by 5 times in one month and by 1000 times next year. It will surpass human driving in the middle of next year.”

    When is this 5x in one month happening?
    I’m driving with 12.5.1, and it’s arguably better then 12.3.6. and the time between that minor update was 6 months!

    I’m a huge fan of Elon, and love my M3, and hold some Tesla shares, but I just can’t wrap my head around that. All I can think about is The boy who cried wolf.

    • “but I just can’t wrap my head around that. All I can think about is The boy who cried wolf.”

      **He caught a rocket with a pair of ‘chop sticks’!**
      The best selling car in the world is a Tesla Model Y.
      He made a humanoid robot that actually works.
      Elon Musk is the real deal, the Techno-Supreme of our age.

      • Remember that Philo Farnsworth died penniless and unheralded. Tesla fared little better. Fame is fleeting.

      • I pretty much agree but Elon also tends to be a little over-optimistic about timelines. And there’s not much training data for the rare cases you need, to get those miles between interventions well up into six digits.

        Bottom line: how fast is the distance between interventions increasing, and what is the curve? Is it really exponential, or just linear?

        To have cars without steering wheels, we need to get well into six digits for safety-critical interventions.

        • Nothing much. It turned out to be hard to scale because roofs are all different, so there’s a lot of labor you just can’t get away from. Down the road maybe he’ll train Optimus to do roofing, and things will change.

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