Tesla $450 in 90 Days

There is a bull market in stocks after the election. This will likely last for 2-4 months. Tesla has a strong runup of 32% ($79) in five days. Tesla should have a strong fourth quarter with more earnings from cars, energy and FSD. There are more improvements with 4680 batteries which lowers costs for Tesla. This will increase margins and earnings. FSD could have breakthroughs with approvals in China and Europe.

If the overall stock market continues with another 10% gain then Tesla could gain 20% more.

This is a great MELT UP. The opposite of the MELT DOWN that ran the stock down to about $110 two years ago. The MELTDOWN was overdone but there was real growth and margin shrinkage. Margins have nearly grown back to 20%. Q3 had 19.3% margins. Margins will be over 20% in Q4. Car production is increasing and will be over 500,000 cars in Q4. There will be more high priced cars with more Cybertrucks. Cybertrucks selling for $80,000 (double the price of Model Y). The Cybertrucks at scale will have more than double the profits for a model Y.

I wrote on October 23, 2024 that the perfect earnings in Q3 was the start of an epic stock price run for Tesla. The shares will increase by ten times over three years. I made the call for Tesla to get to $1000 by the end of 2025 at the beginning of October, 2024. Tesla shares are up $110 from $213 per share on October 23. This has already been a 50% gain. There will still be fluctuations in the stock. This is not financial advice.

In terms of the near term trading, the big institutional funds are underweight for Tesla. They have to get to equal weight and then to overweight. This is a lot of buying. There will also be a short squeeze and gamma squeeze. People loading up on call options forces market markets to buy the stock which is a gamma squeeze. The call option action will be large because when Tesla becomes the darling of the stock market again Tesla dominates options trading for the entire market.

Tesla is on the verge of superhuman driving in the next few months. Tesla is starting the release of a vastly improved FSD (full self driving) version 13 this weekend. It will be feature complete for unsupervised driving. FSD will be vastly improved for safety to reach beyond human capability around the middle of 2025.

Nvidia had a ten times increase after the ChatGPT kicked off massive purchases in AI chips. Tesla will become the AI story with full self driving, robotaxi and licensing to other car companies. Nvidia did still have massive pullbacks during its run which is still continuing.

By end of 2025

Tesla energy – Shanghai megapacks start production in Januaary, 2025 This will triples Tesla energy over 9-15 months. Tesla will be making 120 GWH/year vs 40 GWh/year. This is with over 30% margin as already shown in Q3 2024. Eneryg will have $3B of profit per quarter, $12B profit per year. $40B of revenue per year. Energy gains alone can double the stock by the second half of 2025.

Tesla car production can increase 600K cars next year (+30%). There will be an announcement of a new model within 90 days. This would cause the market to expect strong car production growth in 2025 and 2026.

FSD/Robotaxi (will start constantly announcing deals and achievements through 2025. FSD (Full self drinvg) is currently at 12% adoption rate up from 8% but in US/Canada only so far.

Tesla will add China, Europe FSD Q1. Theregulatory authorization will be a big boost to the stock. Tripling the TAM (total addressable market). The FSD adoption rate can increase to 25% with a full deployment of the version 13 software. This would mean $2B per quarter in FSD vs $340M this last quarter (Q3 2024). This would be $7-10B profit for Q4 2025.

Combined the total for 2025 would see $25-50 billion in profit versus about $9 billion in 2024.

Beyond 2025.
Energy will then keep doubling and tripling (unlimited AI data center energy demand),

Semi trucks (robotrucking- only Tesla will have the robo driving trucks and must have the megacharging – solar and batteries).

Tesla has 80-90% of supercharging in North America – this has to 10X-20X more over a decade to have megacharging for trucks and electric trucks to replace diesel. There must be a large energy storage and solar buildout 20% of all US-world energy – 2M trucks would need 200-400K megacharging truck charging points. 200 GW of new energy. double the demand for megapacks in US alone.