I, Brian Wang, shared my 2025 Tesla share price predictions and analysis with Herbert Ong.
My bear case is $700 at the end of the year. The base case is $1000 and the bull case is $1500.
The bear case is where there is just 500,000 more cars to 2.3 million and megapack energy ramps with the completion this month of the Shanghai Megapack factory. There would be continued FSD improvement and FSD regulatory approval in China and Europe. This would mean $20-25 billion in net income.
The base case is where there is 800,000 more cars to 2.6 million and megapack energy ramps with the completion this month of the Shanghai Megapack factory. There would be more FSD improvement and FSD regulatory approval in China and Europe. There would be FSD reaching safer than human driving in mid-2025 and unsupervised robotaxi with 5000 vehicles or more. This would mean $30-40 billion in net income.
The bull case is where there is 900,000 more cars to 2.7 million and megapack energy ramps with the completion this month of the Shanghai Megapack factory. There would be even more FSD improvement and FSD regulatory approval in China and Europe. There would be FSD reaching safer than human driving by mid-2025 and unsupervised robotaxi with 50000 vehicles or more. There would be huge demand for used Tesla and new Teslas for to access the vastly superior and money making autonomous vehicles. There could also be a few thousand Teslabots shown to be doing useful work in Tesla factories. This would mean $50 billion in net income.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.
On https://teslafsdtracker.com/ the miles to disengagement of latest 13.2.2 FSD is still showing no significant increases – only around 137miles in the city between critical disengagements, little ahead of where they were in 2022 with 10.69 version (107 miles), which means they still need to eliminate more than 999 out of every 1000 issues-causing-disengagement to get close to human levels of performance.
There is no hope of that occurring in next year or two given how improvement has clearly stalled out several orders of magnitude below where they need to be. Robotaxi can’t work without it so what are they going to do?
That would depend on how long Elon will survive with trump