The most important things that happened in 2024 was the progress in AI, robotics and space capability. We are on the verge of AGI (Artificial general intelligence), robotaxi and fully reusable rockets.
The most shocking images of the imminent future was the mechazilla catch of the SpaceX booster.
As of 23 December 2024 the Starlink system has
Satellites launched: 7,589
Satellites failed or deorbited: 729
Satellites in orbit: 6,886
Satellites working: 6,839
Satellites operational: 6,073
As of December 2024, SpaceX has launched approximately 320 Starlink satellites with direct-to-cellphone (DTC) capability into orbit. These satellites are designed to provide cellular connectivity in remote areas and dead zones, working with existing LTE phones without requiring any modifications to the devices. Each satellite with direct-to-cellphone capability can handle thousands of simultaneous text messages and hundreds of voice calls. SpaceX has authorization to equip up to 7,500 Gen2 Starlink satellites with this technology, the current number in orbit represents the initial phase.
The Starlink DTC capability was used for hundreds of thousands of text messages after the hurricanes.
Elon Musk has said Starlink will provide global emergency text messaging.
This SpaceX initiative aims to offer free access to emergency services for mobile phone users worldwide, even in areas without cellular coverage. Key points about this service include:
Global Reach: The service will be available worldwide, subject to approval by individual country governments
Free Access: Emergency services access will be provided at no cost to users in distress
Compatibility: The service will work with existing LTE-capable phones, without requiring any modifications or additional apps
Functionality: Initially, the service will support text messaging, with voice and data capabilities planned for the future
Partnership: SpaceX is collaborating with various telecom operators globally, including T-Mobile in the US, Rogers in Canada, and others
Emergency Alerts: The system will be capable of sending Wireless Emergency Alerts to all users in cellular dead zones, regardless of their service provider
Testing: T-Mobile has successfully sent a wireless emergency alert via Starlink satellites, demonstrating the system’s functionality
This initiative represents a significant step in expanding emergency communication capabilities, potentially saving lives by providing connectivity in remote areas and during natural disasters when traditional cellular infrastructure may be compromised
There are 100 Starshield satellites in orbit.
Almost AGI
OpenAI O3 crushes benchmark tests and puzzles but it is not AGI in terms of replacing humans for most jobs.
There is some substantial costs of $5000 to $500,000 of compute to solve the hard problems.
The AI compute costs will become vastly more efficient and lower cost.
The problems have correct answers but there can be more issues around more compromises and shades of grey problems.
Anything with clear loss functions are solvable with LLM and the OpenAI systems.
The AI Data centers and scaling of compute for training, compute for inference and increasing data continues to improve AI.
Robotaxi and Solving driving
Altimeter Capital ($20 Billion Venture Capital company) thinks Tesla FSD 13 has caught up to Waymo, one critical disengagement every 15000 miles and will reach one critical disengagement every 100,000 miles in Q1 2025.
Altimeter Capital has sold all of its Uber holdings to buy Tesla. Brad Gerstner explained the sale of Uber by the belief that Tesla Robotaxi could disrupt Uber.
Tesla reach reach one critical disengagement every 500,000 miles in the middle of 2025. This is the average human level driver for critical disengagements.
Brad Gerstner believes Tesla will be able to remove the safety driving mode for robotaxi in the middle of 2025 by placing the car in robotaxi mode. This is a mode of defensive driving where the car is more careful about speed and how cautious it is. The human will be a passenger who will not disengage but will accept the driving. Just as a human accepts the driving choices of a bus driver.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.
Is it just me or is it odd to call these “the most important things to happen in 2024” ?
Not all SpaceX upper stages need to be made out of heavy stainless steel. SpaceX would gain impressive performance improvements that would assist landings on the moon if they developed some aluminum upper stages…..these more fragile stages could be best left in orbit for the next round trip, with cargo and astronauts using a Dragon re-entry capsule instead of a heavy steel Starship.