Third megapack factory is already being built but they did not say where yet.
Tesla will also deploy robotaxi to California and other locations in the USA by the end of this year. It will be the Tesla internal fleet this year for robotaxi and then next year (2026) they will let Tesla customers add cars to the robotaxi network.
Tesla will have Tesla semi in production in 2025. Extrapolating Tesla FSD trucks, I, Brian Wang, put the pieces of Tesla Semi and FSD for trucks togther to conclude that Tesla will incorporate unsupervised FSD for Semi for Robotrucks in 2026.
Teslabot production version 2 should be out ideally early 2026 or latest mid-2026 and this will have production capacity levels of about 10,000 per month. Teslabot production could be 50,000-100,000 in 2026.
Teslabot costs at 1 million units per year should be about $20,000 each. The sale price will be based upon demand. If there is the expected strong demand then the cost per unit will be high. This is also expected to be the case for a robotruck capable Tesla semi.
A submission to Europe for FSD will occur in May, 2025. Tesla believes FSD approval could happen for Europe May 2025.
Supervised FSD will be technically available for all global markets this year but the regulatory approvals are separate issues.
Tesla is talking to other carmakers about licensing FSD. Tesla will only do this for high volume (over million units per year). Tesla will not divert engineers for other carmakers to adopt FSD. Other carmakers must take apart Tesla cars to figure where to position cameras and deal with thermal issues.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
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Even assuming that teslabot will be manufactured in large numbers, please consider that cars are less complex than humanoid robots and both the degrees of freedom and the heterogeneity of the environments and situations in which a robot could operate is orders of magnitude bigger (after all they could be driving as well as doing everything else). To me it is not clear how teslabots will be able to do anything at all given that FSD, which us a simpler problem, so far has not been solved at all (it is considered newsworthy that new teslas drive themseves in the factory parking lot).
Mechanically speaking, Robots are simpler. Less parts, less mass… cheaper to produce.
But the full SW of the robot is of course way more complicated than the FSD se. Fortunately, you can put the robot into use in controlled environments where the environment is really simple, much simpler than the driving environment of a car. It may be simpler to make the robot safe and effective in a limited number of controlled environments than making the FSD work in all traffic situations.
I am sorry, but I sort of disagree with the whole line of reasoning:
1) Mechanically speaking, cars were invented around 1880, while humanoid robots were invented almost 100 years later. Sure, cars require more material, but the level of complexity (and difficulty in production) is higher in robots. It is like saying that watchmaking is simpler than woodworking because watches are smaller…
2) the general idea of humanoid robots is to use robots in environments that already exist as they are environments built for humans, Tesla marketing material agrees with this idea since they show teslabots watering plants in livingrooms. You do not need humanoid robots in carefully planned and controlled environments, we already have factory robots for that. But to have robots live in close contact with humans in heterogeneous environments you will need a much more complex software that fsd: for example you need to make sure that the robot will not stab you with a knife if you t-shirts with weird food illustrations on them. You have to make sure that they will navigate your house without crushing your pets, toddlers and so on, they will have to be able to recognize glass doors, windows and things happening on TV screens (or reflection of TV screens on windows and other reflective surfaces). It is much more complex, and the available training sets will be much smaller
expensive ewaste
1 Optimus, please.
Weather-proof.
To sit on the corner of my tombstone, speaking my name for a hundred years.
Giving my greetings to passers-by.
And, when they visit, telling my descendants all about their great-great-great grandmother — my grandma, being a cook on a horse drawn Chuck Wagon, moving along North Dakota fields, setting-up to feed the line of scythers, as they rest from harvesting the wheat circa 1917.
And, as people think about getting brain implants, or even an Optimus, I would direct you to a Rogan-Elon episode a couple back, where Elon jokes that, “I can send a rocket anywhere on Earth, and just not slow it down…anywhere”. (Paraphrased)
I am supportive of SpaceX, Tesla, Neuralink, but, Caution Horses…
That all sounds great. Sounds like Teslabot “Version 3” is being called “Production Version 1”.
I look forward to that unveil, shouldn’t be too far away, since they will have it in Production (I’d guesstimate) around mid-year.
Glad to see they are bringing up Tesla Semi FSD, that will be a money F’in maker. Assuming of course it works perfect 99.99% of the time, and the other .1% will likely be Tesla employees using VR goggles, at least for the first couple years.