Elon Musk made huge announcements that Teslabot will start ramping mass production this year and reach 500,000 to 1 million in 2027.
The targets are 5,000 bots in 2025 with Q4 2025 being the start of a factory and 50,000 to 100,000 in 2026 and 500,000 to 1 million in 2027.
This would be huge as 5,000 bots on each shift would match the number of human workers on a shift in a Tesla factory.
50,000 bots in 2026 would mean all Tesla factories could have one bot for each human worker on a shift.
Elon also said that the FSD (Full Self Driving) safer than human driving milestone will happen in Q2 2025. This is three months ahead of the previous mid-2025 goal.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
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So, key aspect. What year will Tesla be producing more walking robots than vehicles…. and then what year will the aggregate production of robots eclipse the vehicle production totals.
Re comment on robotaxi interface, they will go full voice with Grok as the driver…
In terms of teslabot abilities, it’s going to get rather interesting once they ramp up the learning compute for greater simulation learning.
Will 2025 or 2026 be the year the first humanoid robot is launched into space…. maybe 2026 or 2027 for the first moon walk.
The future is looking bright, I just hope it’s not 3000C bright.
I’d be more impressed by demonstrations of what they can do rather than how many of them will be produced.
I don’t need a robot or a self driving car but I would definitely get a Tesla TV for $157.
Thoughts on Optimus and Robotaxi.
Yet to see an Optimus: clean a toilet, change sheets on a bed, make a BLT sandwich, walk a dog, etc… things a 6th grader can do easily.
Robotaxi drives with as much knowledge of driving as a beaver knows how to build a dam.
Beavers are very good a building dams BUT they do NOT understand structural engineering, they build by instinct.
Never seen a Robotaxi explain what the laws and rules of driving are and how it is obeying them as it drives. Like a Beaver it drives by ‘instinct’.
People should not have to be able to READ to use a Robotaxi (touch screen is suboptimal for a public taxi)
They should be able to get in and say “Take me to the Starbucks on Maple Street, the one across from the library” When they get there, the customer should be able to say “drop me off behind the green car across the street”.
Robotaxi (with speaking interface ) by end of 2028, 1 million/year production of Optimus by end of 2029
Just to clarify: Brian do you support such a claim? Would you make such a prediction ( I mean 5,000 bots in 2025, 50,000-100,000 in 2026, and 500,000 to 1 million in 2027)?
As an official Brian Wang prediction I would say
3000+ Teslabots by Dec 31, 2025
20,000+ Teslbots by Dec 31, 2026
200,000+ Teslabots by Dec 31, 2027
1M+ Teslabots by Dec 31, 2028
Reporting would be from Tesla earning reports, FCC Filings or other public reporting or posts by Tesla reporting by April 15 of the following year.
As usual, thank you for your reply.
If they build the first 3000 and the robots are reliable enough to be a commercial success, I think your timeline makes more sense (not that you need my approval…).
Regards.