What are Predictions and My Track Record

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There is an anonymous commenter who wanted to be a troll about my prediction track record and where I was wrong about technology. I discuss my public predictions and go more deeply into nuclear fusion and other specific topics.

My writing that years ago that emdrive and Mach Effect propulsion researchers made and that nuclear fusion startups could succeed were not predictions with specific claims and time frames.

There were articles where I wrote and repeated the claims and forecasts made by the companies or technologists. I would say that XYZ company has a roadmap to achieving something. This is like saying SLS (Space Launch System) got funded and first planned to launch in 2016. IF I do not

Nuclear Fusion and Predictions
6 minutes into this video from a few years ago, I say that NONE of the nuclear fusion startups or projects have lit up light bulbs like the 1951 nuclear fission reactor.

I say that nuclear fusion has potential to eventually be a radical improvement in energy generation. However, there is not limits to the funds for research and technology development.

However, there are many challenges to get to net energy generation and challenges to get to commercial energy production and challenges to get the supply chain scaled up. The Deuterium-tritium burning systems would need to scale up the tritium availability.

I am not predicting nuclear fusion will generate power for the grid at even one gigawatt of constant power before 2035. It is not impossible that this could happen but it is not a 50%+ chance.

There are many interesting and worthwhile companies.

The nuclear fusion companies are still getting funded and they could eventually succeed. They are generating nuclear reactions.

The Fusion Industry Association (FIA) released its latest annual report, The Global Fusion Industry in 2024, in July 2024.

Total investment in the fusion industry has reached over $7.1 billion, with an additional $900 million in new funding since the previous year.

Government funding increased significantly, rising by 57% in 12 months to $426 million.

Notable investments include $100 million for Xcimer, $90 million for SHINE Technologies, and $65 million for Helion.

Fusion Industry Growth and Employment. The survey included responses from 45 private fusion companies, up from 43 in the previous year.
Employment in the private fusion sector has grown substantially, with over 4,000 people now employed worldwide.

89% of respondents anticipate fusion providing electricity to the grid by the end of the 2030s, with 70% expecting this milestone by the end of 2035.

Other things where more money was spent and not much useful results:

$500+ billion on the F-35 program and planes.
$26 billion has been spent on the SLS program and it has only had one flawed test flight. There was about $11 billion on the Constellation program which was basically the same as the goal of SLS.

I have said for energy, if you just want safe programs that will get guaranteed good results, then just fund molten salt nuclear fission or advanced nuclear fission projects. You can also just continue to scale up and improve solar and fixed battery energy storage.

What is a Prediction?

A prediction on the public platforms is a statement about a future event or outcome that specifies:

The Event – A clear, unambiguous description of what will happen, including all relevant parameters (e.g., “The temperature in Tokyo on July 1, 2025, will exceed 30°C”).

The Resolution Criteria – Explicit, objective criteria by which the prediction will be judged as true or false. This includes:
Source of Truth – A reliable, publicly accessible source or method for verifying the outcome after the event (e.g., “Data from the Japan Meteorological Agency’s official records”).

Time Frame – A specific date or time period by which the outcome must be resolved (e.g., “The measurement must be taken at exactly 12:00 PM JST on July 1, 2025”).

Falsifiability – The prediction must be structured such that it can be definitively proven true or false based on the resolution criteria.

This means:

The criteria must not be open to interpretation.
There should be no ambiguity in how the outcome is measured or reported.

I have written over 35,000+ articles. Almost all of the articles were not predictions. If you find over 3500 articles with issues around predictions, then let me know.

There were times that I have made predictions like when I predicted when Canada would reach particular population levels. I usually tag the articles with predictions. But I also repeated predictions made by others like Ray Kurzweil or Bill Gates.

Here is a list of public predictions that resolved in 2024.

There were 36 out of 421 that were wrong. This is 385 right out of 421. This is 91% accuracy. There about 100+ predictions that will resolve in January, 2025 and I had a high accuracy in those predictions.

In November 8, 2025, I predicted that Tesla share price would reach $450 within 90 days. This happened as the stock price doubled. It has since pulled back to $379.

Self Driving

I am predicting substantial self driving car success in 2025. People who do not like hearing that can stop reading those articles.

There has been a lot of progress on the Tesla Full self driving systems.

Controversial Technology and Science

I still believe LK99 and room temperature superconductors are worth investigating but the work is poorly funded. There are many areas where I disagree with capital allocation. I think more money should and more open minded efforts should be placed on areas of interesting physics. However, I know that poorly funded efforts where the scientists are ostrasized is areas with slow progress.

There is still efforts into investigating LK99 and the room temperature superconductors. But the amounts being spent and the number of researchers involved is tiny.

Global climate change funding is about $150 billion per year and emission have not peaked. The new AI data center boom will cause energy production to vastly increase.

There is talk and commitments for climate change programs to reach $300 billion per year by 2035. This seems to be an ineffective mass of useless corruption.

18 thoughts on “What are Predictions and My Track Record”

  1. First, “Predicting the future” is very good business Get yourself with our (US) if you can REALLY do that with I hear. Our CIA (I hear) pays LOTS of serious money, to predict the future. I’m going to be blunt here. I don’t have a problem admitting this. So many people, shoved so much money up my ass, that some came out of my nose, it was scary. Of course, I’m speaking figuratively. If anyone “tried that”, I’d break bones in their body they never knew they had. I know I’m not the biggest guy on the block.

    I know I’m not the “meanest” (Thank God) but I swear, I am old, am infirm, but will NEVER GIVE IUP!! Sorry kids, I just can’t, and never will. As long as I live.

  4. Hi Brian, thank you for writing a full post as reply to my comment. While I keep my identity private, you know the email associated to my comment and you should know that over the years I have always been a respectful commentator, maybe skeptical, but respectful. Whike I understand that you did not appreciate my comment, I did not consider it trolling, as I saw it as a meaningful comment that triggered discussion and clarifications (also from you). As i stated in my original comment there were 3 possible cases: a narrow definition of predicion, prediction edited to match data, or wrong prediction score. Your reply is about what a prediction is, and I agree with your position. That however implies that only a small number of your posts on NBF are actual predictions. When you post about something, like Shotwell statements about spacex plans to have point to point passengers rockets before a certain date, statements from Elon Musk about FSD, or statements about UFOs footage, they are the one making a prediction. If I understand your position on the matter, you do not consider it a predicion/endorsement from your side, however many here on NBF, might consider them as such. Regards (and I mean it, not in a sarcastic way). AAA

    • I think Brian’s editing might confuse the issue; His extensive use of cut and past often makes it unclear when he’s just quoting, or speaking in his own voice.

      But he does tend to be quite clear when he’s actually making a personal prediction.

      • I agree with that.

        As he said, he posted over 35 thousand articles.

        That also means many of those were rushed and we’re not clear. It’s often difficult to know what are quotes from others, what is something he is saying himself, etc

        Who knows. English is not my native language, so maybe my lack of proficiency with the language is to blame, not his writing and editing.

  5. The F-35 is a bad procurement story, but a wildly successful product. Any country that has the ability to buy them is ordering as many as they can.

  7. What about antiaging and life extension?
    It’s been a while that it’s not been talked about on the site

  8. Imagine what fission power could be doing right now, with that sort of funding, and sane regulation.

    • At this stage , I guess a manathan 2.0 to have fusion working could solve a lot of problems but fossil fuel companies won’t see it like this. In 2025 my house and my car will be 100% green electricity powered , no more fossil fuel for me !

      • The problem with fusion is that, even if you technically get it working, it’s unlikely to be cost competitive.

        Sure, the fuel is practically free compared to the energy produced, (True of fission, too.) but the infrastructure cost to produce that energy is going to be very high relative to other sources like fossil fuels or fission.

        The basic problem is that while fission really ‘wants’ to occur, and we’ve even seen that uranium ore beds have naturally functioned as reactors in the past, fusion is, on the scale we want to do it, small and slow, very finicky. Requires high vacuum, ultra-purity, superconducting magnets near radiation sources. And aneutronic fusion is enormously harder than neutronic fusion, so you’re dealing with radioactive materials regardless. Even most aneutronic reactions involve side chains that product neutrons…

        The Victorians could have built working fission reactors, if they’d known what to do. We’re still struggling to achieve breakeven, our only actual successes with fusion have been bombs.

        And when we finally get there? (I’m sure we will.) Suddenly fusion will stop being the best that’s the enemy of good enough fission, and join fission as a evil to be attacked by the Greens.

        I see it as having great potential in space, but for terrestrial purposes fission is much more practical.

        • From what I read about the situation here in Australia where renewables contribute substantially already and will contribute more into the future, the main limitation for any additional power source is that it is only needed when the wind isn’t blowing or the sun isn’t shining. So a fraction of the time – and batteries are filling those gaps already to a growing degree. So if the capital or running cost of a new fission or coal plant is substantial then there will not be enough return for it to be economical since their power will only be needed sparingly. Apart from valid concerns regarding GHGs, this is why no new coal plants are being built and and also why no fission plants will likely be built here.

          You may want to abandon renewables, but in so many places it is too late and batteries continue to get cheaper. Furthermore, many people like generating their own power and will not go backwards on this.

          Perhaps at higher latitudes solar is not good enough but for places such as Australia, with enough connections and batteries, renewables plus maybe a tiny amount of gas, seem to promise very cheap and reliable power.

  9. Hello Brian, Happy new year 🎆, I want to thank you for all your papers , as a PhD chemist, I really appreciate all the diverse science you talk about.

    Do you think tant IA could help to unlock the pathway for nuclear fusion ? I look to a tv program about ITER, seems really crazy engineering and with all the issues they have, not sure we will get something soon …

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