Reviewing my analysis from two weeks ago about Tesla, I wanted to emphasize key points and add more context.
I think 2025 is playing out like what happened in 2020. In 2020, the stock ran up (post-split prices) from about $15 in late 2019 to $60 by Feb 21, 2020 and then dropped to about $28 March 21, 2020 and then went on a run to nearly $300 by Jan 2021. There were about three or four pauses and dips in the remainder of the 2020 run.
Breaking support today at $330 today puts $270 as a possibility. It could even go to $250 or something and this would still not be the over 50% volatility of $60 to $28 that happened in early 2020. $488 down to $250-270.
I call $350 and under as a buy zone moving into a sharp rise with the new car models, unsupervised robotaxi and FSD licensing. All being substantially realized April-June 2025. I think it is a strategic flaw to get overly tactical to pick exact the exact bottom. However, I am not giving investment advice. I am just relaying how I see the overall structure based on events which can be off by 1-3 months. There are multiple important events.
The stock is in a vulnerable position because there is a Q1 ramp of the new model Y version. This will have lower Q1 production numbers. Those numbers will be announced April 2. However, there is week to week information from China weekly insurance registrations. There are monthly China production, delivery and export numbers.
The key for me is to watch the weekly numbers in China get back to about 20,000 per week. This will show that the ramp and supplier ramp is on its way.
This is needed so that the lower cost models will be introduced in Q2 2025. The suppliers will need to double and triple the parts for a ramped Model Y and then ramped new car models.
Another relevant example is Nvidia before the Chatgpt moment. Nvidia was $31-32 in November 2021. It went down to $11 in October 2022. It was $48 by the end of 2023. It was $130 by mid-2024. Would it have been a mistake to buy at $31 in November 2021? How about at $20 in April of 2022? How about at $16-18 in August of 2022?
I am saying that Grok 3 will be followed by a Grok 4 using 11X the training compute. The training cluster and natural gas turbine installations will be done in about 90 days.
There will be utility for FSD related training from larger clusters with XAI-Tesla cooperation.
I have been giving many articles with detailed breakdowns of the FSD and XAI and the training cluster build.
I will give my expectations around lower priced models and their ramp.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.
As Musk has become a politician, Tesla is essentially finished. It’s already declining enormously in EU and will soon struggle in China even more due to stronger local alternatives. India is catching up fast in EV tech and production, and due to Trump’s politics, Tesla sales will tank even more in Canada and Mexico as well.
China with its better price-quality ratio will also dominate SEA and African markets, although medium term those regions will also develop their own EVs. FSD tech can be bought as a service, it’s basically a software.
Soon (~2030 maybe), someone (probably China) will also open source it and disrupt market even more, every country, even the poorest ones will have access to it.
Musk’s political involvement has damaged the brand. Robots and FSD won’t change much—China will buy its own bots, and the EU has its own or will buy them from China which is now even more friendly than USA.
The U.S. will likely ban Chinese robots, cutting itself off from a 1.4 billion-strong market. A similar dynamic could emerge with India as will start developing cutting edge tech—security concerns will lead to bans/huge tarrifs on both sides.
Tesla will be left with only a small segment of the U.S. market, and as Musk’s unpopularity quickly grows, domestic sales will also decline.
I am not some Musk hater—it’s simply a reaction to the latest sales data and shifting sentiment. Before Musk ‘politician era’ I saw a big potential, not anymore. The “Musk is great” bubble is shrinking, not growing, and that’s a serious problem for Tesla’s long term prospects.
We now have European sales figures, and they clearly show that no one wants to be associated with a Nazi. I suspect when fresh US numbers come out they’re going show just as much of a crash. I also expect certain people to make excuses and to try to rationalize this all. The reason is right before your face. History repeats itself.
Short version of technical analysis on TSLA: it is a long way down, first to the channel bottom below 200. If that long channel breaks down along with liquidations in the rest of tech, it is Gandalf trip down until the last margin call is covered. Fun fun fun.
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Pew poles indicate that Musk and DOGE are increasingly under water with the American public. The Trafalgar group’s polling is indicted to be Republican leaning and spotty in its predictions. Not including the growing dislike of Musk and DOGE in your predictions, undercut there reliability. Perhaps you should attend a republican town hall in Georgia to get a better feel regarding how red state Trump voters are expressing their dislike of DOGE and Musk.
Trafalgar gained fame in 2016 for correctly calling Trump’s wins in Michigan and Pennsylvania when most pollsters missed the mark. They’ve since leaned into a methodology that adjusts for “shy Trump voters”—people who might not admit their support in traditional surveys—using a mix of live calls, texts, emails, and proprietary techniques. They were less accurate in 2020 and 2022.
So, how did they do in 2024?
For the 2024 presidential election, Trafalgar focused heavily on battleground states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada,
and North Carolina—states that often decide the Electoral College outcome. Their final polls, released just before Election Day, showed Trump leading or tied in many of these states. For instance, in Pennsylvania, Trafalgar’s November 3 poll had Trump up 47% to 45% over Kamala Harris. In Michigan, they reported a tie at 47% each. Wisconsin showed Trump ahead 47% to 46%, and in Georgia, they had him at 48% to 46%. These numbers suggested a tight race with a slight Trump edge in the Electoral College path.
actual results. Trump won the presidency with 312 electoral votes to Harris’s 226, flipping all seven key swing states: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, and North Carolina. Official margins show Trump’s victories were narrow but consistent—Pennsylvania by 2.2%, Michigan by 1.4%, Wisconsin by 0.9%, Georgia by 2.1%, Arizona by 3.4%, Nevada by 0.9%, and North Carolina by 3.4%. Trafalgar’s predictions were directionally correct in calling Trump the winner in these states, but their margins were often slightly off. In Pennsylvania, they underestimated Trump’s lead (2% predicted vs. 2.2% actual), while in Michigan, their tie prediction missed Trump’s 1.4% win. Wisconsin’s 1% predicted lead was close to the 0.9% actual result, and Georgia’s 2% predicted lead aligned well with the 2.1% outcome.
Accuracy-wise, Trafalgar’s average error across these states appears to be around 1-2 points, which is impressive compared to the polling industry’s struggles in past Trump elections (e.g., 6% error for many other polls )
They were one of the most accurate pollsters for 2024. Errors in the “fractions of a percent” range—a claim that holds up when you crunch the numbers above.
When Trump was in election or poll..they nailed 2016 and 2024. Again you come with unsupported claims.
I don’t need to change my methods or process. Because I make prediction and they are 90-95% right.
I called the big run up and doubling of Tesla stock to Jan 20, 90 days in advance. I called the drops weeks ahead. I am calling the return to all time highs over the next 60-120 days.
I am provably attuned to the actual popularity of things and I am able to connect to it to what will happen.
Yet here we are, with plunging numbers and general discontent at the dismantling of our nation. Are you all too proud to admit you made a mistake?
Grok is outperforming chatgpt today, just found out. Tesla will rebound, they are the cheaper brand in the ev market with lots of benefits – tough im buying the taycan. And teslabots are coming and will push this stock once again on further boundries. Stockmarket is awaiting sales from nvidia, wether they lose or won sales, after this welcomed blowoff stocks will rise again. Be greedy when people are fearfull, checkout google as well, intrinsic value it.
And the rest of the story that Brian conveniently leaves out is the steep decline of Tesla car sales around the world. It seems that the man who runs around the stage with a chain saw and supports extreme right wing parties is increasingly disliked by car buyers and not even the sweet savour of Grok 3 is likely to change things. The problem with fanboys is that they are likely to view their hero through rose colored beer goggles. In addition, DOGE is being viewed as a political scam by many Americans. Even red state trump voters are vocally expressing their outrage at town halls. Business articles that Brian hasn’t read or credited state that personal dislike of Musk is tanking Teams stock.
I am well aware of the TSLAQ narratives.
Here is some data:
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating
Trafalgar poll, 49% approve of Musk and his efforts with DOGE, while 44% disapprove
The many Americans is in the 30% range of strong disapproval (think it is a scam). Weaker disapproval at 14%.
Your problem is you have some claims and insults (same as the articles you are reading) but nothing precise forecasted with clear dates. I have dates and precision. I say what will happen and when. Blah, blah, spin, spin now. If you are right then what in June 2025, what in Dec 2025 etc… Blah, blah, blah, stock price prediction, metrics. blah, blah DOGE what precisely? House, Senate bill, reconciliation?
Trafalgar criticized the way other pollsters asked questions related to Musk and DOGE: “Their questions have generally centered upon opinion of Musk playing a large role in Trump’s administration, versus a straight up approve/disapprove question as to Musk and his efforts in leading DOGE.” They continued, saying that when the questions are asked correctly, Republican approval of Musk is around +8%.
According to the latest Rasmussen Reports poll, the number of people saying the country is going in the right direction exceeded the percentage saying it is on the wrong track. This is the first time in the history of Rasmussen polling, which started in 2003, that more respondents said the country was on the right track than the wrong track. Since RealClearPolitics began tracking the “Direction of the Country,” there has never been a time when the average showed a larger percentage of people saying the country was on the right track than the wrong track.
I am saying the reduced cars is because of the introduction and ramp of the new model Y.
I will revisit the results and updates every month or so. I think production ramp, new car models will be far more clear by June 2025.
I had a public prediction of the 2024 election. Prediction 80% Trump win nov 2023, 93% around Jan 2024, 99.9% by June 2024.
the blue dots are the rising percentage of my predictions.
Make testable claims,if you are so right and I am so wrong. What are you saying will happen?
The (technical) analysis looks like US only.
How much of Teslas market is the US?
I can tell you, in the EU, there is now a catastrophic anti-Tesla sentiment due to some bytes (text) communicated on social media by Musk. The erratic flow of confusing statements from Trump gets mixed in and associated with Musk/Tesla and this drags things down further. I saw some numbers the other day that the E-car market in the EU is at a 2.2% decline while Tesla is at 45% for the same period.
This is more like a black swan event so technical analysis will not suffice. Personally, I think this can be repaired because all this is just words so far and not much real life action. Musk should take a media training course and perhaps focus on his rockets.
Yeah Tesla’s branding at the point is probably the worst of any car company in history. I don’t know how anyone thinks an association with literal Nazis is not going to do major damage.
FSD and robots might save them but their moat isn’t as wide as I thought a year ago. A bunch of companies are doing humanoids, Figure seems to have made a real breakthrough in robotic AI, and in China, Huawei has self-driving that’s at least as good as FSD. Besides vision it uses three lidar units but they only cost $250 a pop. And if they can do it, others probably can as well.
From what I have been reading, Tesla does not own XAI, so it should have no impact on Tesla at all.
Not in Texas.
Are you a federal worker? Who exactly views the process of actually ascertaining where the “federal government” spends money as a scam?
Oh no, we’re no longer funding transgender operas in Peru! Millions of fed ‘workers’ (aka subsidized Democrat voters) who don’t do anything, but sadly face the sheer effrontery of having to actually note anything that they did over a 5 day period…..yes, we are witnessing Fascism on a scale hitherto never witnessed before!!
I find it interesting that Trump and Musk are the first fascists in history to attempt to shrink the size of government…OH THE HUMANITY!!!!
Yeah, libs and leftists used to like Tesla because they could virtue signal an environmentally correct lifestyle, and, of course, show off their income bracket (or daddy’s trust fund if a DC bureaucrat). Now they have Musk Derangement Syndrome, so they won’t be buying his cars. It will suppress business, for awhile.
But after DOGE succeeds, in large part, and Musk forges ahead inexorably on multiple fronts, as he is a force of nature, the losers on the Left will be marginalized by success.
As demonstrated throughout history and notably a generation ago.
Ah yes, I remember so well “Reaganomics”, and the hue and cry from the Left. Oh, the pearls that were clutched. Then the US economy soared and the USSR tanked, and well, now Reagan is a national hero outside of the world of bi-coastal libs, university towns, and the types who live off USAID subsidies.
DOGE- just what the doctor ordered to reduce Marxist swelling and irritation.
BTW, long time reader, big fan, Brian. Keep up the great work!