Taiwan Fubon Research Has a $1000 Tesla Price Target

16 thoughts on “Taiwan Fubon Research Has a $1000 Tesla Price Target”

1. I’m still waiting on that $500 price by Friday. Which Friday was that supposed to happen?

2. Media is going after Musk at full. He is cutting off their funding. With less funding media attacks on him will be less strong.

   If Musk will cut media gov funding, both left and right that is good. If he is fair they will also cut gov funding for republican media not just dem.

   That is fair. Gov should not fund any media, be completely unbiased, no matter who is in charge(rep or dem).

3. What about the damage done by Elon of late

4. Tesla stock $200 by July 18th!! Why?
   1. Tesla traded under 250 for 2023 and 2024 until Nov 4th.
   2. Sales for Tesla are down 61% in Germany for January, down 44% in Sweden, down 38% in Norway, down 63% in France. California sales (their largest US market) are down 12% for the year with the Model 3 down 36%.
   3. The EV tax credit is going away by Memorial Day (May 26th). When incentives were reduced in different EU nations it cause a 10-25% drop in EV sales.
   4. No one is buying Tesla’s self driving tech. For other car companies the addition GPU’s alone add thousands of dollars in cost to each car built. Only 10% of early adopters (Tesla drivers) pay for the service. FSD still doesn’t work in reverse.
   5. Robotaxis will never be approved by California governor Gavin Newsom or New York Governor Kathy Hochel , Tesla’s two largest US markets. The States in the US decide safety requirements for the cars and trucks that drive on their roads, not just the Federal Government. Politically its too beneficial to each of them to pass up. A fight with Elon Musk will just make their approval numbers go up.
   6. Deep Seek just destroyed most investors idea that Tesla is an AI play.
   7. The US residential solar tech and battery storage company Enphase just beat Wall Street estimates. They shipped 152 Megawatts of residential battery packs last quarter for 360 million dollars. They say they have seen a surge in sales from California residents.
   8. As Tesla’s car sales decrease, so do their Carbon Credits! They made 2.76 billion from those credits alone. Now they will lose income from their two largest revenue streams simultaneously!
   9. Elon Musk publicly lies about Tesla.
   July 18th is an expiration date for Tesla options (shorts). Tesla’s future will be a disastrous quarterly sales report April 2-3. The stock plunges. Then by Memorial Day, according to US Speaker of the House Mike Johnson the new tax bill will be on Donalds desk and will include the repeal of EV credits. The stock drops again. Then another terrible quarterly sales report due July 2-3. The stock goes off the cliff. By July 18th, when the options expire, Tesla will be at 200$ or less. Buy your shorts now before they get too expensive!

   • That does seem foreboding for the auto side. Not that anything or anyone will ever be able to stop the public from adopting the EVs over traditional fuel vehicles at this point; that train has left the station.

     But, as far as Tesla is concerned, their car business might go by the wayside, sure. However, there’s a chance that they’re counting on the robotics industry instead and will leave EVs to the auto industry, since it’ll inevitably go all electric at some point.

   • You have many excellent points.
     I think it was a mistake for Elon to be political…IF, I’m talking about just Tesla. It will barely make a dent in his other companies.
     But if I was him, I wouldn’t taken a similar route, buying X and keeping the 1st Amendment alive & well, was an extremely good move. If he didn’t do that, and find out (Twitter files) about all the corruption that went into making Trump lose in 2020, he wouldn’t have the same mindset that he does today. Which is having DOGE air DC’s dirty laundry. I could rant all day about USAID…but I digress.
     As for Tesla stock, I’m an investor, but for only one reason. Oddly enough my reason wasn’t even mentioned by you.
     THE ROBOT
     Teslabot sales & revenue will dwarf EVERYTHING else Tesla does…and it wont be close. It has an enormous amount of potential, that ONE product line will become a money printing machine. No Tesla investor will care what Tesla’s car sales will be in a few years, the earning call questions will all be about the bot. Elon has already stated he’s going all-in on bot production, hitting a million bots produced in just 3-4 years. Staggering quick growth, which they have to do, cause China also realizes this insane growth potential, and are also going all in.

     • Here’s a link to a Benzinga article about advancements made by competing U.S. based robotics company Figure A.I. Tesla is not the only company working on humaniod robots. My hunch is that humoniod robot purchases will have to do a lot with how much you trust the company making the robots. The value of Tesla’s brand dropped for a second straight year, according to a study carried out by research firm Brand Finance. It’s down 26% aka 15 billion. https://www.benzinga.com/tech/25/02/43487564/tesla-rival-figure-ai-ends-collaboration-with-openai-after-major-breakthrough-says-it-will-show-something-no-one-has-ever-seen-on-a-humanoid-in-next-30-days

       • Figure is an awesome company, I’d say I follow their work closely…but I follow all decent sized AI & Robotics companies closely. I’m eagerly looking forward to their “breakthrough” unveil in a few weeks, which will be their own end to end neural net, ditching Openai’s.
         But they are a startup, they don’t have the capital or anywhere remotely near the resources of Tesla. I can’t stress that last part enough. They recently said over the next 4 years, their goal is 100,000 bots. Which sounds like a lot today, but by then, Tesla will be producing more then that per month. China will be Tesla’s biggest competitor with great companies like Unitree, Fourier, & UBtech.
         In the US though, Figure & Boston Dynamics are nearly tied (as far as I’m concerned, Fig slightly ahead). Both have great bots, Figure being a startup has that go go go mentality. But Boston Dynamics has history, decades of work on humanoid bots. Their electric Atlas is a great bot, they also have shifted from pretty much only being an R&D lab, to shipping products, like Spot & Stretch. But they have same experience as figure does when it comes to the struggles of mass production….none.

   • Agree , Tesla is being outpaced in all domains , even robots … plus the reputation damage done by musk actually… what a short term view… he could focus on it but his attention is elsewhere…

5. Brian, seriously dude? This appeared right next to “Tesla sales fall 60% yoy in Germany” in my feed. Meanwhile, Chinese companies are moving way faster on humanoid robots and AI.

   • There is fluctuation in Tesla share price. Germany cuts its EV subsidies. Germany cut EV subsidies at the end of 2023, not in 2024. The German government abruptly ended its electric car subsidy program on December 16, 2023, with immediate effect. This decision was made in response to a budget crisis and as part of cost-cutting measures. Overall EV sales were down and germans were buying cheaper cars. Used car prices were down.
     Humanoid bots that can do actual large scale work in the factories or justify initial prices of $100,000 ? Unitree is selling their bots for $16000 but are the hands and intelligence capable of autonomous work?

     AI – I cover deepseek in depth. They had innovations on the inference and models. They open sourced the innovations. They are a good team. xAI and Tesla are leveraging a 200,000 GPU cluster in one building.

     Ford CEO says Ford is near a decision on level 4 autonomy partnering. Waymo and/or Tesla.
     Tesla has supervised robotaxi for hundreds of employees now and in June paid supervised robotaxi in Austin.

     SpaceX launched and mass produced Starlink satellites. Others make satellites and modular satellites but SpaceX got to scale 10X-100X larger than any other satellite constellation.

     We can check back later in 2025 and 2026.

     BTW: X is profitable now (article posted). All those who said X was a bad purchase were wrong.

     • Biran, how much do you think Tesla is worth without AI/FSD and similar? I ask because if Deepseek teaches us something, it is that all the capital-intensive investments in training a super AI (of any kind) can be burned to the ground by someone releasing a comparable model open-source.
       Once FSD is developed (or another proprietary automatic driving software), how long will it take before someone develops an open-source competitor? Do you consider such scenarios in your valuation of tesla? It is possible to exploit remotely operated LLM that reside on server farms, and use the knowledge you obtained through the process to train your own AI. To prevent lagging and errors due to poor connection FSD weights will have to reside locally in the car. How long is going to take before someone get access to it?

   • Europe sales pummeled , Belgium got 50 % down in January, no one want to buy it mostly due to Elon behavior…. Personally I took an electric BMW.

6. China FSD competition appears to show low cost radar and lidar are an advantage for more than L2 L3.
   Out of Spec did a good video talking about that.
   Unbiased thorough comparison tests and data would be nice. USA is maybe falling behind.

7. So Fubar says buy. I have never heard of them but that’s good enough for me. I’m just going to ignore the loss of customers and aging car designs and go big with Fubar.

   • Cybertruck isn’t aged, Model 3 was refreshed last year, and Model Y just got an overhaul. So not even close to aged. The S&X have some age, but they don’t sell great to begin with…only so many people in that tax bracket.

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