Tesla LFP Batteries Likely Pilot in 2025 and Volume Scaling in 2026

Tesla’s patent 2025/015194 A1,(“Cathode Powder and Processes),” describes a method for producing lithium iron phosphate (LFP) cathode materials for the Tesla 4680 batteries. It has simplified mixing, granulation, and heating steps. This patent, spanning over 100 pages, was published recently.

@Tesla's LFP manufacturing patent, WO2025015194A1 is just published. 👀🔥 pic.twitter.com/3PoF1blnfa

— SETI Park (@seti_park) January 16, 2025

Tesla allowed and timed it to go public only after significant progress in executing the process.

Merging information from Former Tesla VP Drew Baglino and reports from industry observers like Jordan Giesige of The Limiting Factor, and broader rumors about Tesla’s LFP timeline I think the Tesla LFP batteries get released in 2026. Here is how we get there.

Patent Details and Tesla’s Progress
The patent describes a streamlined process to produce LFP cathode powder. It greatly reduces complexity and cost compared to traditional methods, which I describe in the linked article. It emphasizes scalable production using abundant iron-based materials, aligning with Tesla’s goal of cutting reliance on nickel and cobalt while undercutting competitors, including untariffed Chinese LFP manufacturers.

Drew Baglino, who left Tesla in 2024, has suggested this process could make Tesla’s LFP cheaper than China’s, even without tariffs, implying significant optimization had been achieved by the time he commented. Given the patent’s publication in early 2025, it’s likely Tesla has been refining this process for years—possibly since 2022.

LinkedIn profiles of Tesla engineers suggest Tesla has had LFP cathode trials large enough to power hundreds of vehicles.

Tesla’s history of battery innovation suggests they don’t publish patents until they’re confident in execution. For example, their 4680 dry electrode process, announced in 2020, took until late 2023 to reach meaningful production volumes (20 million cells by October 2023). The LFP cathode process is less radical than Tesla dry electrodes but is still innovative. It will have a similar multi-year development path, putting Tesla in a position to implement it relatively soon after the patent’s release.

Rumored Timelines and Factory Adjustments
Reports and rumors provide clues about when Tesla might roll out LFP 4680 batteries. In October 2024, Tesla was reportedly developing four variants of the 4680 cell, including an LFP-based “Workhorse” (NC05) intended for vehicles like the Cybertruck, Semi, and a rumored robo-van. This suggests LFP 4680s are already in advanced testing, with production possibly starting in 2025. Additionally, Tesla’s Sparks, Nevada facility expansion, reported in January 2024 by Bloomberg, aims to localize LFP supply chains, indicating factory adjustments are underway. Adjusting a battery factory for a new cathode chemistry typically takes 12–24 months, depending on scale and existing infrastructure. Since Nevada already produces 4680s (albeit with NCM chemistry), retrofitting for LFP could be faster—potentially 6–18 months—especially if Tesla has been planning this shift since 2022.

Jordan Giesige from The Limiting Factor has analyzed Tesla’s cathode patent in a February 2025 video, noting its potential to simplify production and reduce costs dramatically. He speculated that Tesla could begin scaling this process in 2025, leveraging existing 4680 lines with minimal retooling due to the process’s compatibility with current equipment. Jordan’s analysis aligns with rumors that Tesla aims to integrate LFP 4680s into mass-market vehicles by late 2025 or early 2026, capitalizing on the cost advantage Baglino highlighted.

Likely Implementation Timeline

Development Head Start: Tesla likely began LFP 4680 work years ago, with the patent’s publication in 2025 reflecting mature technology ready for deployment.

Factory Readiness: The Nevada expansion and ongoing 4680 production suggest adjustments for LFP could be completed by mid-to-late 2025, assuming 6–12 months from early 2025.

Market Pressure: Tesla’s push for affordability (e.g., a $25,000 EV) and competition with Chinese manufacturers like CATL and BYD incentivize a rapid rollout, likely targeting 2025–2026.

Rumors and Variants: The “Workhorse” LFP 4680 variant and testing reports point to pilot production in 2025, with volume production following in 2026.

A plausible timeline :

Tesla could begin pilot production of LFP 4680 batteries using the patented process in Q3–Q4 2025, with factory adjustments largely complete by then.

Full-scale implementation—powering vehicles like the Cybertruck or a new affordable model—would likely hit in Q1–Q2 2026. This aligns with Elon Musk’s historical pattern of ambitious targets tempered by 6–12 month delays (e.g., Cybertruck delivery shifting from 2021 to 2023).

Cost Advantage vs. China
Baglino’s claim about beating untariffed Chinese LFP costs hinges on Tesla’s simplified process and vertical integration. China’s LFP dominance stems from low labor costs and mature supply chains, but Tesla’s approach—using local resources and cutting production steps—could offset those advantages. If successful, this could drop Tesla’s LFP cell costs below China’s reported $0.044 per watt-hour (2024 benchmark), reshaping the EV battery market.

Conclusion
Tesla will likely implement the LFP 4680 battery using the 2025/015194 A1 process in two phases: pilot production by late 2025, followed by volume production in early 2026. Factory adjustments are probably already in progress, enabling a swift transition. This fits Tesla’s track record, industry rumors, and Jordan’s analysis, positioning them to deliver the lowest-cost LFP batteries and challenge China’s dominance sooner than later.