UBER only made $2.8 billion in operating profit in 2024. They had some tax revaluation net income but those were one off financial effects. The $2.8 billion was less than 1.5% of gross revenue and 7% of UBER share of revenue.
This means that UBER is far more vulnerable to any price competition.
Tesla robotaxi will start with a paid service in June 2025 and will go nationwide in the USA in 2026 with all cars and car owners able to join as providers.
The speed of the ramping and disruption in the 9-15 months after June will reach about one million robotaxi. This will be the equivalent of 5 million regular fulltime UBER drivers.
UBER will be disrupted by Q2 2026.
The limitations on scaling for Waymo do not exist for Tesla. Waymo only has 700 vehicles and have limits around remote drivers, LIDAR and hypermapping.
Unlimited Tesla Robotaxi will see an awakening of the entire fleet in 2026.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
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https://teslafsdtracker.com/ FSD user tracker still shows very frequent critical disengagements (ie likely accident averted by driver intervention). The best version to date 13.2.2.1 is still only 752miles per critical disengagement, but the 8 subsequent releases are worse only 50-250 miles, ie they are not increasing monotonically and clearly have no certain path to improvement.
How can they possible launch a robotaxi given that state of affairs in their software stack?
It will be interesting to see whether pricing is competitive or monopolized by Tesla.Fleet owners will eventually price individual owners out of the market.
This advance should be the prelude to the biggest ever change for personal travel. By about 2030 robotaxis should become the most common type of passenger transport.