Tesla VP Lars Moravy has said that the Tesla Cybercab will use a 50 kWh battery pack and still get 300 miles of range. If this range can be achieved with Iron LFP batteries then the battery pack will cost $2000-2500. Battery packs are about 20% of the cost of the car. This would put Cybercab costs in the $10k-12.5k range.
Elon Musk said at the Tesla All Hands that Cybercabs could be produced every 5 seconds. This compares to Tesla Shanghai Model Y produced every 35 seconds. Two Tesla Shanghai model Y lines are able to produce 26,000 Model Y each week with full out 140 hour per week production. Forty weeks of production would be 1 million Model Y per year from just two Shanghai lines.
Two lines of Cybercab producing at one every 5 seconds could achieve 178,000 Cybercabs per week. Forty weeks of production would be 7 million Model Y per year.
Tesla talked about producing 2 million Cybercabs for a line in 2026. Tesla will have been sandbagging Cybercab production if the one every 5 seconds is correct. The drop in production costs will also massively increase the demand and profitability of Cybercabs.
Ark Invest is tracking the compute Tesla is using for FSD training and how this will enable safer than human driving by October, 2025.
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I’m skeptical of the slide on FSD improvements. First, the data point from October contradicts the best public datasets we have. Second, in most machine learning tasks we see that precision improves linearly as compute and data increase exponentially. Thus, I might expect to see a straight line on that chart of miles per critical disengagement, if the Y axis were linear. It’s not. It’s exponential. It predicts that 2 doublings in compute lead to 9-10 doublings in miles between critical disengagement. That’s a very very big deviation from the normal relationship of compute and data to precision in machine learning tasks. We’d expect that 2 doublings in compute would lead to far less than 2 doublings in precision.
BTW: there have been about ten comments and increasing with the general message that Elon Musk is liar and anyone who believes any of the plans would be fools. This would be any claims about cybercabs, cybercab production or any claims about future Tesla production or Tesla products. I am not publishing the comments or giving permission to those commenters because it would just massively increase the toxicity of the comments. Loads of insults and anger. However, I wanted to let readers know that this exists.
BTW again – there is a constant, steady stream of this kind of high anger, loads of insults, anti-Elon, anti-Tesla, anti-SpaceX comments and commenters that are trying to post to this site. There are also loads of comments that have lots of personal insults about me as well. I choose to have them talk to my hand. My hand with a particular finger configuration, while I laugh.
Unless these market volumes are based only on the USA, then comparisons should be made to Chinese EVs not to Waymo. China is winning the EV market worldwide except for the protected markets of Europe and the USA. A fully driverless Robotaxi service has been operating in Wuhan since October 2024.
Guys, (even Musk)
Put in a steering wheel, and pedals, take out all of the software, well leave the stuff that runs AC, I’m in FL,
I dont want navigation,
I dont want voice control
I dont want FSD
I dont want the COST!
I dont want Airplay, or even a radio
I have a phone!
Give me the option to cast my phone to a big screen?
hmm yes thats a good one
2 seater, sell it at $25k, I shall be in
And make ALL the parts, readily available so your local bodyshop can fix any of your oopsies
Right now, no contenders!
Nope. Android and Apple car play are expensive garbage.
Thankfully, he can this cheaper without introducing your virus into the system
No kidding. “Android Auto requires your car’s clock to agree with your phone’s clock, please reset your clock in settings”.
I mean, you’re kidding me? Why would it require that, and why not just reset the darned clock to agree with the phone without demanding I do it manually?
Your estimated cost is assuming that the battery cost will aways be 20 percent of the cost. If only the battery cost is reduced by 50 percent, without other parts also being reduced, it just means that they will be 10 percent of the total cost.
I think the battery cost is much higher than 20%
– solar is cheap
– power is cheap (even from Florida-Power-And-Darkness)
– gas is expensive
Manufacture is tough, but seems to me that Tesla have cacked that one
(mostly, dont look at anything glued to a CyberWhatNot)
SO?
Put all that brainpower, research etc into finding batteries that we can really use.