Longevity Escape Velocity Can Still Happen by 2040

Dr. Aubrey de Grey discusses his Robust Mouse Rejuvenation (RMR) studies at the LEV Foundation. He believes that three more RMR (Robust Mouse Rejuvenation) studies of combination therapy will get us to the goal of adding an average 12 months of lifespan to a 2 year old mouse that would normally be expected to live 12 more months. This would be doubling the remaining life. This milestone could be achieved in three years. Aubrey believes this would cause an even greater flood of funding and more scientific effort and activity.

Once there is a flood of increased research at about 100 times the level of current research then we would be on track to repairing the aging damage and developing and deploying the treatments for the first stage of longevity escape velocity.

If we can get a first 25-50 year increase in lifespan and the first comprehensive aging damage repair treatments we will have another 10-20 years to develop even better treatments. The intervening periods between major set of comprehensive treatmenat could be transition periods where other surgical, organ replacement treatments are needed.

What works for billionaire Bryan Johnson may not work for you. All current antiaging mitigations and lifestyle aspects need to be customized.

New treatments are needed and must be developed if any of us are to to get to longevity escape velocity.

4 thoughts on “Longevity Escape Velocity Can Still Happen by 2040”

  1. The underlying assumption here is that investing more is strongly correlated to more life extension. Why do you believe this to be true?

    If I were to invest 100x more cash into efforts to travel faster than the speed of light. Would I be able to travel faster than the speed of light? No – clearly not. So what is it about longevity research that makes you think significant progress is constrained by the size of the investment pot?

  2. It can happen much faster than that. That‘s based on trailing rates of progress. Were in the Singularity. 2030 is a LONG time from now in technology terms with accelerating progress. I think it would be surprising if age reversal and more or less indefinite lifespan were not technically fully solved problems by 2040 if not necessarily widely distributed. The protein folding problem was intractable for decades until suddenly solved by AlphaFold as one of the very early fruits of current AI progress. The massive complexity and immense data sets of biology are well suited to being understood – they’re a lot like human languages and knowledge.

  3. More great news for our future trans-murine masters. But historically mouse based aging research has been very unproductive; Almost all of what works on mice turns out to be ineffective in longer lived species that already have implemented those longevity strategies.

    As a PR tactic? Maybe it would work. But I think we’re better off studying other unusually long lived species, to see what we can transfer over to humans. Like those fancy ribosomes that naked mole rats have.

    • I asked Grok 3 “What are the longest living animal species, starting at 100?”
      Grok 3 replied: Here’s a list of some of the longest-living animal species known to exceed 100 years, based on scientific observations and records:

      Ocean Quahog (Arctica islandica) – This clam holds the record for the longest-living non-colonial animal, with some individuals reaching over 500 years. One specimen, nicknamed “Ming,” was estimated at 507 years old when discovered in 2006.
      Greenland Shark (Somniosus microcephalus) – These deep-sea sharks are among the longest-living vertebrates, with lifespans estimated up to 400 years or more. Age is determined through radiocarbon dating of eye lens proteins, with one study suggesting a female was around 392 years old.
      Bowhead Whale (Balaena mysticetus) – Native to Arctic waters, these whales can live over 200 years. Evidence comes from old harpoon points found in living whales and biochemical aging methods, with one male estimated at 211 years.
      Galápagos Tortoise (Chelonoidis nigra) – These giant tortoises regularly surpass 100 years, with some exceeding 150 years in captivity. For example, “Harriet,” a famous specimen, reportedly lived to 175 years (1830–2006).
      Rougheye Rockfish (Sebastes aleutianus) – Found in the Pacific Ocean, this fish species can live over 200 years, with the oldest recorded individual reaching 205 years, aged via otolith (ear bone) analysis.
      Aldabra Tortoise (Aldabrachelys gigantea) – Similar to their Galápagos cousins, these tortoises often live beyond 100 years, with some, like “Adwaita” in captivity, estimated at over 250 years (though exact records are debated).
      Tuatara (Sphenodon punctatus) – This New Zealand reptile, often mistaken for a lizard, can live over 100 years. Some in protected environments have been documented at 120 years or more.
      Geoduck (Panopea generosa) – A large Pacific clam, geoducks can live up to 168 years, with age determined by counting growth rings in their shells.

      These species showcase incredible longevity, often tied to slow metabolisms, cold environments, or protective adaptations. Lifespan estimates can vary due to challenges in aging methods or limited sample sizes, but these are the best-documented examples exceeding 100 years.
      ========
      I think we can mostly discard non-locomoting and overly simple species like Clams. Even reptiles like tortoises and sharks have limited value to mammals like humans, though their disease-resistance might prove useful to understand. The Bowhead whale living over 200 years could tell us something useful, though its stretched out growth period – over 100 years – is hard to apply to humans.
      Here is what Grok 3 says:
      The bowhead whale (Balaena mysticetus) has a prolonged life cycle, reflecting its exceptional longevity. While exact timelines can vary due to individual differences and environmental factors, here’s what’s known about its maturity and growth cessation:

      Sexual Maturity: Bowhead whales typically reach sexual maturity between 15 and 25 years of age. Females may mature slightly later than males, with some studies suggesting an average closer to 20–25 years. This is based on observations of reproductive activity in hunted whales and growth layer analysis in ear plugs and baleen plates. Sexual maturity doesn’t necessarily align with full physical maturity, as they continue growing after this point.
      Physical Maturity (Growth Cessation): Bowheads are slow-growing and don’t stop growing—meaning they don’t reach a fixed “full size”—until much later in life. They are believed to approach physical maturity, where growth significantly slows or effectively ceases, around 50–70 years of age. This estimate comes from studies of body length and bone development in harvested whales, which show that individuals over 50 years old exhibit minimal additional growth. For example, males typically reach lengths of 35–50 feet (10–15 meters) and females 45–60 feet (14–18 meters), with little change observed beyond midlife.
      Ongoing Growth: Unlike many animals, bowheads exhibit indeterminate growth to some extent, meaning they can continue to grow very slowly throughout their lives, even past 100 years. However, this growth becomes negligible after physical maturity, focusing more on maintenance and repair rather than significant size increases.

      Their slow maturation and extended growth period are adaptations to their Arctic habitat, where resources are scarce, and a long reproductive lifespan (potentially over 150 years) enhances survival odds for the species. Data is limited because bowheads are difficult to study in the wild, and much of what we know comes from indigenous subsistence harvests and historical whaling records.

Comments are closed.