Refreshed Tesla Model Y Was Fully Ramped As of Last Week

Tesla China weekly registrations are at about the level in the same week last year. YTD only 8K behind last year despite the Model Y refresh ramp.

The Tesla Model 3 has started a 0% interest rate incentive in the US. I think this is to clear model 3 inventory ahead of the new model start in 4-6 weeks.

Model 3 will have some sales reduction as the new lower cost Tesla model comes out. New lower cost Model will come out with a premium version of the lower cost model at $30-34k before getting a base model out later in the year. The price with $7500 tax credit would be $25000-27000.

Tesla VP said that there will be S&X refresh this year. This unusual as those were refreshed a few years ago. I think this is a cost reduction and factory simplification move to get them as ultra high end stretch versions of the 3 and Y. 70-80% common parts.

The X will become super-premium interiors of two and three 3 row version of a larger Y. I think they keep the signature doors.

The new Tesla S will be a super-premium and stretched 3. They will remove 10-20K out of COGS and ideally get to a common factory for the production.