Rapid improvement in Tesla FSD driving between critical interventions should see another 10X improvement between now and the planned June 2025 launch of unsupervised driving in Austin, Texas. There should be 10-50X reduction in critical interventions with driving in Texas, California and Florida where the system is better adapted. There would also be reduction in problem situations by monitoring a smaller area for obstacles, emergency vehicles and unusual traffic control problems. The operations could initially avoid or limit night time and bad weather operations.
The initial more controlled operations will enable Tesla unsupervised to be safer than regular human driving for the first deployments.
The Tesla FSD systems are getting about 200,000 miles per month of unsupervised driving already with the Fremont factory to loading dock drives and the actual smart summon and dispatch operations. There is also about 100,000 miles per month or more of supervised robotaxi for employees.
There can be a billion miles of FSD driving data surge with the one month free trial in China. The number of FSD miles should be about an additional 2 billion miles for the first three months of 2025.
The FSD Tracker shows that avoiding night time driving and snowy weather conditions and using it in high volume states like Texas, California and Florida would see about less than 20% of the critical intervention problems.
If there were Tesla fleet operations that could warn and avoid emergency vehicles, unusual traffic control problems and unusual obstacles, then about 90-95% of critical interventions could be avoided.
A Tesla FSD 13.X release should have triple the parameters and triple the context window for a substantial improvement in performance. The Tesla FSD 14.X releases should start happening in April.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
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