Which Will Be the Largest Unlock in Asset Value Ever?

What will be the largest increase in asset value and unlock of profit generation?

Will it be 8+ million Tesla cars becoming robotaxi capable starting in June, 2025 and becoming fully deployed and authorized by the end of 2026.

Will it be thousands of Starlink satellites having 4G/5G direct to cellphone communication capability?

On March 7, 2025, the FCC authorized an 8X power increase authorization that allow spacex starlink direct to cellphone internet at 4G to 5G speeds. There is some physics and engineering that unpack what happened and how it works.

The STARLINK satellites have been testing text to cellphone for hurricane emergencies and with a global beta for T-mobile and other phone companies. In the second half of 2025 the voice and internet service will rollout. SpaceX already has 261 million potential customers from the 8 phone companies that have already signed up.

80-90% of cell towers will not be needed. Cellphone companies spend tens of billions on the capital and operating expenditures of cell towers.

Cell Tower Capital Expenditure (CapEx)

CapEx in telecom covers network infrastructure like towers, spectrum, and equipment. GSMA Intelligence forecasts mobile operators spending $1.5 trillion globally from 2023 to 2030 on CapEx, with over 75% tied to 5G. That’s roughly $190 billion annually over eight years. Historically, tower construction costs range from $200,000 to $275,000 per tower. If we assume 1 million towers exist and 60,000 new ones are needed (per IHS Group estimates for Africa alone), the replacement or new-build CapEx is significant but spread over decades.

For tower-specific CapEx, major U.S. tower companies (e.g., American Tower, Crown Castle, SBA Communications) report annual CapEx of $1-2 billion each, totaling ~$5 billion for 150,000 U.S. towers. Extrapolating globally, for 1 million towers, tower companies might spend $30-40 billion annually on new builds, upgrades (e.g., 5G), and maintenance CapEx. Phone companies lease rather than build most towers, so their CapEx focuses on equipment and spectrum, not tower construction directly.

Operational Expenditure (OpEx) and Payments to Tower Providers
OpEx includes tower lease payments, maintenance, and network operations. In the U.S., WIA reports $46 billion in network OpEx for 2022, supporting 142,100 towers and 452,200 small cells. Globally, scaling by tower count, OpEx could reach $300-400 billion annually for 1 million towers, assuming similar cost structures (fuel, labor, leases). Tower lease payments are a key component—U.S. carriers pay ~$1,500-$3,000 per month per tower, or $18,000-$36,000 annually. For 1 million towers, global lease payments to tower providers could total $18-36 billion annually, though costs vary widely (e.g., lower in Africa due to cheaper land and labor).

Phone companies’ total CapEx and OpEx likely exceed $500-600 billion annually, with ~5-10% ($25-60 billion) paid to tower providers for leases and maintenance, based on U.S. benchmarks applied globally.

Traditional networks cover ~73% of Africa’s land but leave 20-30% of global landmasses (and 90% of oceans) unserved. Starlink’s 7500 planned direct-to-cell satellites could provide ubiquitous coverage, a feat worth billions in economic and social impact.

Market Size and Valuation
The global mobile market generates ~$1 trillion annually in service revenue (GSMA, 2023). Dead zones represent lost revenue—e.g., T-Mobile notes 500,000 square miles of U.S. dead zones alone. If 20% of the global population (1.6 billion people) lacks reliable coverage, and each spends $10/month on connectivity (low-end ARPU), that’s a $192 billion annual market. Starlink’s ability to tap this, plus premium services (e.g., maritime, aviation), could push its value higher.

In telecom, tower leases take 5-15% of carrier revenue, while wholesale models (e.g., MVNOs) see 20-50% shared with infrastructure providers. Starlink, replacing towers and fiber in remote areas, might command a higher share due to its end-to-end service.

For a $10/month rural subscriber (common in Africa/Asia), carriers might retain 50-70% for billing and branding, leaving Starlink 30-50% ($3-5 per subscriber). In the U.S., with $50/month plans, a 20-40% share yields $10-20 per subscriber. Averaging globally, a 30% revenue share seems plausible, balancing Starlink’s infrastructure costs (satellite launch, millions in operations) against carrier margins.

Phone companies’ spending: Globally, ~$500-600 billion annually on CapEx and OpEx, with $25-60 billion paid to tower providers for 1 million towers.

Starlink’s 5G value: Potentially $50-100 billion to eliminate dead zones globally.

Revenue share: Likely 30% of per-subscriber fees.

Revenue from 1 billion unserved: At 500 million users, $18-36 billion annually, scaling with adoption and ARPU.