There have been assessments of the physical damage to Iran’s Fordow nuclear enrichment facility. The general assessment is that the enriched uranium was moved. It was likely moved near Isfahan, which was also hit. However, we do not know where the enriched uranium is. It is likely the centrifuges could not be moved and were destroyed. Iran would need to get or build new centrifuges. Israel spotted a convoy of 17 trucks going to and from Fordow before the US attack.
There are two sets of three holes. There were two big 15 ton bunker busters dropped by the US into each of the holes.
There is some subsidence around the holes indicating some collapse underneath.
There is a 200 meter radius disturbance of the upper dirt. This is consistent with 200 meter radius blast underneath.
There was colored material that was vented out of the blast holes which indicates things were blow up underneath and plumed out.
Israel intelligence showed that 17 trucks visited the site and left before it was attacked. However, if Israel knows that trucks visited the site to try to remove equipment and Uranium then Israel would follow and attack the new locations. Iran would not be able to move everything in 17 trucks.
The Fordow facility uses centrifuges for uranium enrichment, such as the IR-1 model, which is about 2 meters tall and weighs approximately 100-150 kg. More advanced models, like the IR-6, could be larger and heavier. Fordow was designed to house up to 2,976 centrifuges, though recent reports suggest around 1,044 were installed at one point.
A typical moving truck has a capacity of 10-15 tons (10,000-15,000 kg). However, transporting sensitive equipment like centrifuges requires secure packaging and careful handling, which might reduce the effective capacity.
Additional Equipment: Beyond centrifuges, the facility contains other items such as control systems, piping, and machinery, which would also need to be moved and could affect the total load.
Given their size and the need for secure transport, each truck might carry only a limited number of centrifuges. If each truck can safely hold 2-3 IR-1 centrifuges (based on space and weight constraints), then 17 trucks could transport between 34 and 51 centrifuges in one trip. This assumes a weight of 150 kg per centrifuge, meaning 2-3 units total only 300-450 kg—well below a truck’s weight limit—but spatial constraints and packaging likely limit the number more than weight.
If a truck can carry 10 tons (10,000 kg) and we use 150 kg per centrifuge, a single truck could theoretically hold around 66 centrifuges by weight alone. However, this is unrealistic due to the physical size and handling requirements, reinforcing that 2-3 per truck is a more practical estimate.
If the trucks also carry additional machinery or systems, the number of centrifuges per truck could decrease further, or some trucks might be dedicated to non-centrifuge items, making the total capacity harder to pinpoint.
Iran’s total stockpile of enriched uranium is reported to be 140 kilograms enriched to 60% purity, according to assessments by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). This quantity is significant, as it is estimated to be enough to produce approximately 10 nuclear bombs if further enriched to weapons-grade levels (typically 90% purity). The enriched uranium could be moved in one moving truck.
Uranium enriched to 20% purity: Iran has around 240 kilograms (530 pounds) of uranium enriched to 20% U-235. This enrichment level is typically used for research reactors and medical isotope production but can also be further enriched to higher levels if desired.
Uranium enriched to 5% purity: Iran’s stockpile of uranium enriched to 5% U-235 is approximately 1,000 kilograms (2,200 pounds). This is considered low-enriched uranium (LEU), commonly used as fuel for nuclear power plants, though it can serve as feedstock for higher enrichment.
Total enriched uranium stockpile: Across all enrichment levels, Iran’s total stockpile of enriched uranium is 6,201 kilograms (13,672 pounds), which reflects an increase of 676 kilograms (1,490 pounds) since the last IAEA report.
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It is illogical to think Iran doesn’t [already] have a nuclear weapon – assuming they want one.
This information is in the public domain: “Little boy used a charge of cordite (smokeless powder) to fire a bullet of highly enriched uranium through an artillery gun barrel into a cylinder of the same material.”
We used three prototype weapons in 1945 and they all worked. The “little boy” type was not even tested, because everybody knew the gun type assembly would just work.
Basic nuclear weapons don’t require technology as sophisticated as the Iranians have already shown they possess by dropping ballistic weapons on the Mossad building 1200 miles away. Some bolognia FoxNews article was stating the opposite, that a lot of precision and sophisticated manufacturing was involved, beyond the enrichment part of it. Hogwash.
It is highly unlikely that Trump’s strikes did anything but show the world that Israel has the ability to project US military power at will. We know who is in charge.
When a nation obtains nuclear weapons, they’re in a conundrum. This goes doubly for regimes that are supposedly pious theocracies. You can’t use them and be pious. You can’t use them without having them used on you. Welcome to the club Iran, maybe 15-20 years ago.
I’m pretty sure there are international observers present to watch the goings-on at the Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant… They probably still use Russian refueling crews and have maintenance contracts… That said, just like Watts Bar (TVA) irradiates Tritium Producing Burnable Absorber Rods (TPBAR – A.K.A. lithium slugs) to make weapons material, anybody with a LWR can irradiate plain ThO2 rods, as inserts or dummy rods, and make U233 which has a very low spontaneous fission rate, and smaller delayed neutron fraction than U235 – IOW suitable for a gun-type assembly… Just saying.
But does having nuclear weapons make a country safe from invasion? Nuclear weapons states are constantly at war all over the planet, and they never use them, because of the MAD that goes along with them (comment above). Do we leave NK alone because it is a worthless backwater that answers to China, or do we leave NK alone because we fear their ability to nuke the surrounding area? I think it is the former. It is the locking down of NK that keeps the espionage at bay, otherwise there would certainly be a Victoria Neuland color revolution in the works.
It’s an interesting case where all sides agree with the public assessment that Trump announced that the Iranian nuclear program was set back by many years or effectively obliterated. This would be the case even if it is quite clear to all sides that Iran has the 60% enriched uranium and is racing to get it up to weapons grade and build bombs. The Israelis have no interest in revealing that they know this if true, the Iranians obviously have no interest in promoting the idea, the Trump administration’s typical bluster and childishness attacking anyone who contradicts it on this is so on brand that nobody sees it as inauthentic.
This is either a case where nothing is going on because everything was obliterated or just the opposite, a Tom Clancy thriller with a desperate rush to build atomic bombs and a desperate effort to detect and stop it all happening while everybody studiously pretends nothing is happening.
Seems likely the strikes achieved little in slowing the final push to a bomb, the enriched uranium was probably removed and hidden away in the week prior, and even 1% of the ~15000 centrifuges Iran has would be enough to get them sufficient U235 for bomb in a few weeks of operation. The low separative work needed to enrich 60% U235 to weapons grade means only a tiny facility is needed – in fact a single IR9 centrifuge could do enough for a bomb in 6 months.
The world is running out of options here, faced with nuclear weapons in hands of insane Iranian leaders who believe dying in holy war is a good thing I’d say 50-50 there is a nuclear bomb used in anger by Israel or Iran in next 2 years. And ‘the great satan’ US has a big target on it’s back too.
The only possibility of a happy ending is regime change in Iran (which most Iranians would be happy to see), but Trump has just shut down Israel’s efforts in that direction.
My guess is that the first nuclear test in Iran is very close. This is what they learned now, and what the example of North Korea shows.
George W Bush said that Iraq had all its bomb research being done in the back of lorries, and not in labs.
Now Trump is saying that Iran is doing it all in underground labs, and not in the back of lorries. What a time to be alive.
The centrifuges need to run at 100,000 rpm, which means that they need to be finely balanced, never mind the power output. The uranium is mixed with solution involving lots of flourine, which then turns into a flourine based gas. The uranium base is then extracted using calcium, another fiddly material. Last of all, of course, is the actual Uranium. Its just not possible to handle all this safely in a shipping container. Trump is probably right on this, for once.
The world is not safe until there is regime change.
Regrettably, Iran is ruled by a satanic death cult who would think nothing of taking the entire population of the Middle East with it to the grave.
Hitler did the same thing. 🙁