In two weeks, the Tesla Austin robotaxi area will expand again. It will likely cover the 300 square miles of the city of Austin. Tesla also said they will have robotaxi availability for half the population of the US by end of this year. This likely means that they have to have some level of robotaxi launch for the main cities in each of about ten states. This would mean a minimum of 1000 cars and likely 4000 cars. A small ten to one hundred car launch for ten states and 4 cities in each of those states would be about 2000 cars.
This would mean have the service in all major cities of Texas, California, Arizona and Florida and a few other states. The number of robotaxi cars will increase exponentially.
Sun belt states would be better places for robotaxi based upon weather. This would be Nevada, New Mexico, Georgia, Tennessee, Oregon and other states. AV hotspots like Georgia (Atlanta), Illinois (Chicago potential), and North Carolina (growing tech hubs). New York and Pennsylvania have urban density but stricter regulations, so they might be later additions.
Tesla is also expecting full FSD approval for China and Europe in a few months.
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How likely is it that the nationwide rollout will meet Elon’s schedule in light of his previous promises about full autonomy in 2016? As a large part of the share price seems to be currently supported by robotaxi expectations, another disappointment would be bad for investors.
Tesla is expanding to SF with supervised this weekend. Tesla will expand Austin robotaxi to the entire city within 12 days. Tesla is tripling or 5X the number of cars by next week and shoud get to 200+ cars a couple of weeks after the Austin expansion
https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2025/07/tesla-getting-to-30-50-robotaxi-in-july.html
Tesla safety statistics look good in Austin where we have the most complete and realtime updates of both Waymo and Tesla
Wha wha wha wa waaaaaaa… DARPA’s DRACO Nuclear Propulsion Project Cancelled in NASA Budget
Anybody else keeping score?
I hope to use a robotaxi in Charlotte, NC soon.
A physical attendant in each car ?
More likely remote intervention.