SpaceX Launch Will Be Five Times Lower Cost for End of 2025

SpaceX Starship test launch 10 was successful on Tuesday.

This launch is transformational for SpaceX. Dummy Version 3 Starlink satellites were successfully deployed. They can start launching real Starlink version 3 satellites with the next launch in September or October.

All other rockets just deploy payload and lose the rockets. Starship deploying payload and expending the booster and the upper stage means SpaceX will launch payload cheaper then a Falcon 9 that reuses its booster.

SpaceX has shown they fairly reliably reuse the new super heavy booster. Even without saving the upper stage, Starship with booster reuse will be ten times more affordable than Falcon 9. It will be $100 per kilogram instead of $1000 per kilogram for the Falcon 9.

It is only when compared to full reuse of both stages is the ultimate cost and capability of what SpaceX will have after today inferior. Today, dummy satellites, next test mission real Starlinks and 20X the bandwidth per launch.

Starlink Version 3 satellites after this test then they will increase the bandwidth per launch by 20 times. They could launch 100 Version 3 starlinks with each Starship launch.

The Version 3 Starlink will also have much more bandwidth direct to cellphones.

Based on current data, V3 Starlink satellites will be a major upgrade: each offers 1 Tbps of downlink capacity and 160 Gbps uplink.

This is about 10x the downlink capacity of existing V2 Mini satellites (estimated at ~100 Gbps per satellite based on overall constellation performance). V3 sats are larger (60-meter wingspan when deployed, folding to a 7-8 meter base) and designed for Starship’s larger fairing.

As of August 2025:~8,100 satellites in orbit.
~7 million active customers.
Total constellation bandwidth capacity: Approximately 800 Tbps (derived from 8,000+ sats at ~100 Gbps each, supporting median user speeds of 100-200 Mbps during peak hours)

Projections to end of 2026 assume:
Falcon 9 continues Starlink deployments at its 2025 pace (~150 Starlink missions/year, adding ~2,200 V2 Mini sats annually, or ~2 Tbps per mission).

Starship begins operational V3 deployments in Q4 2025, ramping up to a weekly cadence by ~March 2026.

Each Starship launch deploys ~50 to 120 V3 sats (about ~2-ton mass per sat for 200-ton payload to Starlink orbit, accounting for larger size and full reusability).

Added capacity:From Falcon 9 (remaining 2025 + 2026): ~135 missions, adding ~270 Tbps.
From Starship (V3): 44 missions, adding ~2,200-4,400 Tbps.
Total added: ~2,470-4,670 Tbps.
End-2026 total capacity: 3,270-5,470 Tbps (4-7x current).

This bandwidth increase would enable significantly more customers, assuming bandwidth is the primary limiter (along with improved coverage and lower latency from denser constellation).
Current 6 million customers at ~100 Mbps average implies overprovisioning, but 4x bandwidth could support ~24-50 million customers by end-2026 (a ~300-600% increase, or +18-36 million).

Reuse dramatically lowers costs via amortized hardware. It also means not having to build as many Raptor engines.

Estimated operational cost with high reuse rate (e.g., 100+ flights per booster): $10-15 million per launch, or ~$67-100 per kg for 150-ton payloads.

Version 3 Starlink deployments and Super Heavy reuse would accelerate Starlink growth and reduce launch costs, boosting revenue and margins. Starlink scaling to ~24-50 million customers could generate ~$40-80 billion in annual revenue (at ~$140/month ARPU).

Reuse lowers Starlink deployment costs by ~90%, improving profitability (Starlink margins already positive).

Overall SpaceX revenue could hit ~$50-100 billion in 2026 (Starlink + launches + other contracts).

Valuation multiple for high-growth space/tech: 20-30x revenue (comparable to peers). This implies a ~$1-3 trillion valuation by end-2026, a ~150-600% increase (+$600 billion to $2.4 trillion) from current $400 billion. Key drivers: Starlink monopoly in satellite broadband, Mars ambitions, and government contracts.