There is an intermediate step before fully automated self-driving (FSD) trucking and that is automated truck platooning, where multiple Tesla Semi trucks follow a lead vehicle with only one driver for a whole fleet. This is enabled by advanced FSD software available in 2025. This would be significant scale starting in late 2026, leveraging Tesla’s Nevada factory ramping-up 50,000 trucks per year. Semi should be at 10,000–20,000 units annually in 2026. Semi trucks leveraging platooning could make $250,000 to $300,000 per truck. 20,000 trucks would be worth about $5-6 billion per year in profit in 2026 for about $200 per share. In 2027, this would be 60,000-70,000 trucks making about $17 billion per year in platooning mode or $34 billion per year in full autonomous mode. This would add $500-1200 per share.
Key benefits include massive cost savings—diesel trucks cost $1.50/mile, Tesla Semi ~$1.20/mile solo, ~$0.80/mile in a three-truck platoon (due to reduced driver needs, fuel efficiency, and higher utilization like 200,000+ miles/year), and down to $0.40–0.50/mile with full autonomy.
Robotrucking even compares to robo-taxis. Trucking has no price cliff after scale. There is a constant ~$2.20/mile of revenue for all trucking. There is higher utilization (75–85%, 800–1,000 miles/day) than robotaxi (30-50% and 100-300 miles per day). There is a greater than $2+ trillion global market.
Projections show platooning with 100,000 vehicles yielding $28 billion/year in profit, full autonomous trucking (no human drivers) doubling that to $56 billion (adding ~$2,500/share to Tesla’s stock at a 40 PE).
They discuss regulatory support (29 states allow driverless trailing trucks), Tesla’s internal freight savings ($1 billion/year), global variations (e.g., higher rates in China due to fragmented markets), and broader impacts like lower goods costs and economic transformation.
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What are the advantages Tesla has compared to Volvo? Volvo has electric trucks, and have been using autonomous platooning for over 10 years. What’s Tesla’s sustainable competitive advantage?
As of August 2025, no truck maker or startup has deployed autonomous platooning of semi trucks where the following trucks operate without any human drivers at any location.
Recent platooning projects (2025): Platooning projects along I-70 in Ohio and Indiana involve pairs of trucks utilizing advanced automated platooning technology (from Kratos Defense, for example). However, these deployments require professional drivers in both the lead and following trucks for safety and regulatory reasons. The technology allows the lead driver to control both trucks, but each vehicle still has a human onboard who can intervene if necessary
This supports Tesla getting into the cross dock logistics business and operating Semis as well as selling them. Platooning fits with assembling long distance loads at cross docks then dispatching them in a Tesla Semi platoon with a single lead driver. Tesla could anticipate specific routes by building Megachargers along the highest demand routes.