SpaceX Starship 10 should launch today and they will try again to deploy dummy versions of Starlink Version 3 satellites. This could open up 5 times better cost to orbit even if the booster and the upper stage get lost after each payload is deployed.
UPDATE: Live launch coverage will start in about two hours at the new article.
UPDATE: As of 4:15 PM PST. [Launch scrubbed for today]. They have about two more days for this launch window. SpaceX is standing down from today’s tenth flight of Starship to allow time to troubleshoot an issue with ground systems. they could not fix the ground system in the 60 minute window for today. Likely will try tomorrow.
If this is successful they will be able to start deploying real Starlink Version 3 satellites in two or three test missions during September to December 2025. They will be able to deploy satellites for about 15-30 missions in 2026. This would be even if the booster and the upper stages do not get recovered in future missions.
Starship Version 3 is expected to fly by late 2025 and features stretched tanks and improved engines for higher payload. It will have payloads of 200 tons (200,000 kg) reusable to LEO, ~250 tons (250,000 kg) partial reuse, and ~300 tons (300,000 kg) expendable. Costs are internal/marginal estimates based on production scaling ($35-60M per stack long-term), reuse rates, fuel (~$1M), and operations. Cost/kg is launch cost divided by payload mass.
Even if SpaceX could not recover the booster or the upper stage, the cost per kilogram to launch with Starship will be 5 times less than with booster recovery of the Falcon 9. This would be about $200 per kilogram and it would mean being able to launch the much larger version 3 satellites. Each Starship launch would be about ten times the payload (200 tons instead of about 20 tons). They will be able to launch over 100 Version 3 Starlink satellites with every launch. It currently costs about $1000 per kilogram for Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy launches.
SpaceX has shown that they can fairly reliably recover the super heavy booster. If they expended the upper stage but recovered the booster then the cost would be about $80 per kilogram. This would be twelve times better than Falcon 9. Full reuse of both stages with a high launch cadence will see SpaceX get towards ten dollars per kilogram. This would be 100 times better than Falcon 9.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.
SpaceX gets starlink V3 satellites operational and it’s OV for project Kuiper.
Once it reaches about $10 a kilogram I can see people launching themselves into space with full gear to return with a parachute ready to pull in a space suit with breathing apparatus. I calculate it would cost about 2 to $3,000. Social media influencers would do it for their fans.
Once starlink version three deploys starlink can compete on price against existing ISP providers in most parts of the world with government approval. Competition for mobile phone customers may be possible as well.
SpaceX will be able to match reusability development with paying missions as they were able to with F9. They have a lot of options between flat out expended with no features to handle re-entry with extra payload and full recovery attempt after deploying whatever Starlinks that payload level allows.