As of 2025, Europe’s Muslim population is estimated at around 46 million, or about 6% of the continent’s total population of roughly 745 million. This is up from 4.9% in 2016, driven by migration (about 50-60% of growth) and higher fertility rates (40-50%). Most Muslim migrants come from the Middle East and North Africa (e.g., Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, Morocco), South Asia (e.g., Pakistan, Bangladesh), and Sub-Saharan Africa (e.g., Somalia, Nigeria). In recent years (2010-2023), over 3 million Muslim migrants arrived in Europe, with peaks during the 2015-2016 refugee crisis.
Pakistanis specifically number around 1-2 million across Europe, concentrated in the UK (1.2 million), Italy, Spain, and smaller groups in Denmark and Norway.
Muslims are unevenly spread. France has the largest absolute number (about 6-7 million, 9-10% of population), followed by Germany (5-6 million, 6-7%), the UK (4-5 million, 6-7%), and Italy (2-3 million, 4-5%).
From 2010-2023, key entry points include Germany (1.5+ million Muslim migrants), Sweden (500,000+), and the UK (400,000+).
Muslim women in Europe have a total fertility rate (TFR) of about 2.6 children per woman, compared to 1.6 for non-Muslims. Europe’s overall TFR is 1.5, below replacement (2.1), leading to population decline without migration.
Muslims account for disproportionate growth: e.g., in France, they contribute ~30% of births despite being 9-10% of the population.
By 2050, France could have more muslim births than native French births.
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At the end of the day, birth and death rates are cancelling out in places like the UK, and deaths will probably begin to outweigh births soon enough. The population is only growing due to immigration. Muslims are still largely traditional and therefore have families, a perfectly normal thing to do. They shouldn’t be blamed for a shift in demographics if the majority white population are no longer choosing to have kids. Whatever the cause of the latter, it is certainly nothing to do with Muslims. Obviously immigration from Muslim countries shifts the overall demographic mix further, but Muslims are still only a percentage of the population, nowhere near the majority. The UK also voluntarily opted out of the EU recently, meaning it has seen a shift in immigration that reflects a greater number of non-EU countries. At one point, Catholicism was the faster growing faith in the UK due to the influx of Polish immigrants. Possibly in the future, there will be an even greater number of Central African immigrants, so it’s hard to predict what the final population mix will be. The only certainty in life is change.
Europe was Keltic-druidic pagan, then romanized pagan, then protochristian (with a divide between eastern and western Roman empire), then all Christian at the time of the holy Roman empire (but Nordic countries were still Norse mythology pagans), then part of it (Spain and Portugal mainly) were Muslim, then there was the divide between Catholic, Anglican, and reformed, and so on… Changes in religion are not new and are usually quite well taught in school. And the overall tendency now is secularism no matter what is the religion of origin: the rate at which kids stop going to churches, mosques, temples and so on is quite similar especially in the case of 2nd gen immigrants.
Just the opposite is true in the case of Muslims. While some earlier first generation immigrants from the last century may have integrated, more recent arrivals are not, and the 2nd generation is semi-permanently ghettoized, with violent and jihadist tendencies. Worse, they are often if not majority on the government dole, producing children they can’t care for, who are way over-represented in the crime statistics.
This is why EU nations are trying to deport them, even those with citizenship in some cases, but of course, no Muslim country wants them (back) either. That’s partly because they have criminal records or are non-productive people, and partly because creating a worldwide caliphate is the ultimate goal of Islam everywhere.
It’s time to admit that some cultures are simply inferior and can’t be assimilated except in very small percentages where they are not a force to change the culture they emigrate into.
We don’t have a problem with a shrinking population, we have a problem with sub-populations that are still growing.
WTF were the germans and Swedes thinking.
I used to be all for immigration now. Nah, governments are shipping their worst to the West now. They win all around.
The numbers are real and suggest future scenarios, regardless of how you feel about it.