Simplicity of Tesla Cybercab Production Means Mass Production is Only Months Away

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Tesla Cybercab production could start around December 2025 or in the first quarter of 2026. There are three major structural body parts and the structural battery. Only four major pieces for the modular construction of the Tesla Cybercab. Doors, wheels and other cover parts are all easy for Tesla. This makes the modularly constructed Tesla Cybercab hyper efficient for mass production but should also make it easy for Tesla to get production started in a few months. Joe Tegtmeyer saw that the Tesla Cybercab modules are being made in Austin and tested in Fremont and Austin. There are large numbers of the castings being made.

This could mean a million Tesla Cybercabs in 2026 and huge robotaxi profits.

The Tesla YL is seeing 10,000 orders per day in China. This could mean more sales for the Tesla YL than even the standard Model Y.

Tesla has already cast the front, rear and middle of the cybercab. Tesla is experienced mass producing structural batteries, doors and tires.

It seems like it will be fast and easy to get the gamechanging Cybercab into production.

11 thoughts on “Simplicity of Tesla Cybercab Production Means Mass Production is Only Months Away”

  1. My real world experience driving a model Y long range for Uber (I’ve been doing it as an experiment to see if I want to purchase several Model Ys for robotaxis):

    Insurance: $3000/year. (I figure the cost is mainly because of other bad human drivers who do stupid stuff that can’t be avoided on a crowded highway).

    Tires: $1000 for a set of tires every 22,000 miles, a tad more expensive because I get the noise muffling tires. The Model Y is heavy and fast, so it is rough on tires. The cost might be less for a cybercab, because it has less weight and acceleration.

    Cleaning: I have to clean the car multiple times per day. I carry a rechargeable, handheld vacuum in the frunk. People are gross and messy. I don’t do any pickups after 9 pm, especially from bars.

    Electricity: I have a residential level 2 charger in my garage. My electrical cost is $0.13/kWh. I know industrial gets a lower rate, but it will take a few years for Tesla to get a bunch of cybercab specific charging stations built. The superchargers in my metro area cost $0.35/kWh, and are often full. In addition, supercharging, while great, is a lot harder on the battery and reduces its lifespan.

    Repairs: are expensive and time consuming. A lady backed into my parked Model Y in a Kroger parking lot. It put a dent in the spoiler (I’m glad I got a memory stick for sentry mode). There are very few certified Tesla body shops in the Dallas/Fort Worth metro area. 4 weeks and $6000 later, I had my vehicle back. (It was a simple dent, but Tesla ended up replacing and painting the whole back hatch. Why they don’t have extra back hatches manufactured and painted to supply body shops is a mystery. There’s not that many colors).

    I gross $250/day driving 10 trips (roughly 6 hours). After expenses, I figure it is about $180/day in profit. My depreciation is minimal, because I bought the Model Y for $28,000 (2023 hardware 4) with 22,000 miles on it. (They also let me purchase FSD for $2000, which I gladly snatched up.)

    Anyway, the ‘profit’ was around $30/hour. And that’s with me doing all the little things to maximise my efficiency and tips. My time is worth a lot more than that.

    But using it as a full-on driverless robotaxi, making a profit of $10/hour, with 10 hours of driving/6 hours of charging/8 hours idle per day, would be a good business use case. 6 such vehicles would keep me busy, but not too busy. And give me plenty of write-offs to offset the $600/day cash flow.

    My two biggest concerns are (1) if there is a glut in the market (too many cybercabs and robotaxis drive the market down to zero) and, (2) Tesla squeezes the owners of the vehicles over time, the same as Uber has done. Whoever controls the app determines the fates of the service provider.

    There are other considerations, of course.

  2. What is happening with the Tesla Vehicle Operator? I cant see meaningful mass production roll-out until they are no longer needed.

    • It’s undoubtedly low. Tesla just lost a major FSD court claim for over $200m, though they are appealing, but another similar case is on the way. Yes, these long court cases date back as far as 2019 and FSD has evolved since then, but the Cybercab will be the first time there can’t be a backup driver in the car, because it only has 2 seats (the economics of that aren’t factored into the calculations here either; what’s the loss in potential passengers who can’t add a third member to their party in the same cab? If it’s 2-parents and their young child or two children, it’s unrealistic to think they will want to split up into two cybercabs. With three young children, it’s unacceptable).
      Peter Zeihan thinks the liability issue will doom autonomous vehicles to niche status until Congress figures it out: https://youtu.be/fyompkPXkS4 but I think it’s worse than that because the states and courts and agencies that are ill-equipped to figure this out, and an administration that is completely hostile to EVs, FSD or otherwise, are even bigger obstacles.
      Also, insurance for EVs tends to carry a premium anyway because a single crash may be impossible to repair due to the complexity and danger of the battery system. For a while it seemed that adoption and training would eventually lower costs but it’s going the other way so far.
      Also, I think the cleaning and recharge dwell time is under-estimated. Cleaning may have to happen after every ride unless there’s a way to tell better when it’s needed. Maybe interior cameras, but then you might have passenger privacy concerns too, especially is passengers are going to be charged post-ride for extra cleaning costs – even if they deserve to be. People can be pigs, especially if they think no one’s watching. And the clientèle are supposed to be more average than traditional cab-riders because of the lower cost to ride, so maybe they’re not so well behaved?
      If cybercabs do manage to scale, they’ll add to traffic, from pulling people off mass transit and walking, again due to low pricing. This will increase travel time, decreasing profits in the most dense urban areas, like NYC, where Tesla robo-taxies are already testing.

      • 1) The difficulty and costs of repairing a EV are, mainly, a product of obsoleted/protectionist/safetist regulations. In some cases repairs are just outlawed for “reasons”.
        2) A Tesla vehicle has cameras all around itself, see everything, record everything; this mean they can evaluate the causes of the incident and apply blame to the right party.
        “Tesla Vehicle Safety Report shows Autopilot is 10x better than humans. Tesla has officially released its Vehicle Safety Report, which shows data on the number of miles traveled between crashes for vehicles using and not using its Autopilot.29 apr 2025”

        A fast research with Google show just two incident between two Tesla (and one appear voluntary)

        Cleaning don’t need internal surveillance to be prevented. You see it and what do you do? Nothing. You just inspect the car (automatically) before and after the ride.
        If the car is way too dirty AFTER compared with BEFORE the ride, you tag the client as “litterer”, decrease his priority on getting the next ride and increase the price for for the next rides. Greater the cost of cleaning up, longer the waiting time and the cost of the next ride.

        Bad customers are, usually, a tiny fraction of the total. You get rid of them or make them behave, 99% of the problems go away.

      • Autopilot, not FSD. Two completely different products. Literally didn’t read past your first sentence when you got that major detail incorrect.

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