SpaceX $30 Trillion Valuation (2030-2035) by Providing 5G Service and Phones to Everyone

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SpaceX Echostar bandwidth buy – SpaceX themselves said the throughput (comm speed) will go up 20 times and the capacity (how many users) will go up 100 times. In a few years, SpaceX own most of global communications and give full 5G everywhere. My video explains it all. (on X and on youtube).

SpaceX is buying 50 MHz bandwidth from Echostar means they go from leasing and partnering with T-mobile for one lane of bandwidth for upload and one for download for direct to cellphone to six lanes each way or 10 lanes for download and 2 for upload. They own ten of the 12 lanes outright. In March 2025 let them increase power by 8.5 times which is like allowing them to have many times the traffic going each way. The Version 3 satellites will be five times bigger and have thousands of beams and they will move close to the earth for far better signal and again more bandwidth. Having 40,000 satellites only 300 kilometers from earth instead of 60 at 600-900 kilometers will give SpaceX dominating super 5G coverage everywhere for everyone on the planet. SpaceX can offer direct to cell services without partners on the new bandwidth that they own.

SpaceX themselves said the throughput (comm speed) will go up 20 times and the capacity (how many users) will go up 100 times. SpaceX will own most of global communications and full 5G everywhere.

SpaceX wants Apple to cooperate instead of pursuing the C-3 constellation because the H-block and AWS-4 spectrum, that SpaceX is now acquiring from EchoStar, is not supported by any current phones. EchoStar’s Band 66 and Band 70 used different frequency pairings. Support from device manufacturers will be needed to get the new capabilities enabled by this spectrum into consumers’ hands in the near term. IF Apple doesn’t come around, then SpaceX will announce a Starlink phone. SpaceX will make a new phone anyway for Africa and Asia and consumers who do not get Apple phones but Apple resistance will just start competition faster and with greater intensity.

Starlink V3 satellite deployment is already assured and proven.

SpaceX Starlink around 2028-2032 will go to
– 200+M High speed Internet (2 gbps)
– 5 Billion direct to cellphone 5G subscribers and some mix of partner (apple) or their own phones

Assuming a linear ramp-up in SpaceX’s market share from 0% in 2024 to 60% by 2030 (capping at 60% thereafter). SpaceX revenues from direct-to-cellphone services estimated:
2028: Approximately $381 billion. (~40% market share that year.SpaceX retaining 100% of revenues from its independent operations and average 60% from partnered operations.)
2030: Approximately $600 billion.
2035: Approximately $678 billion.

$15 Trillion to 30 Trillion valuation.

Elon Musk will then have two companies with over $20 trillion in valuation. Tesla with $20 trillion assuming he hits $400 billion per year adjusted EBITDA (profits without one time charges). SpaceX with $30 trillion assuming $600 billion per year in adjusted EBITDA. Combined the two companies will make $1 trillion per year in adjusted EBITDA. This would five times higher than Saudi Aramco today and three times higher than Saudi Aramco peak profitability and ten times the profit of Nvidia.

3 thoughts on “SpaceX $30 Trillion Valuation (2030-2035) by Providing 5G Service and Phones to Everyone”

  1. Look at the starlink availability map. Some of us are still not able to receive starlink service because we happen to be located near a radio astronomy site. One would have thought a bunch of self described smart scientists would have come up with a fix by now. It’s not like they weren’t warned.

  2. I asked Grok to examine the effect of having 40,000 Starlink satellites at 300km above Earth. It wouldn’t surprise me if there are lawsuits internationally over Musk’s de facto unregulated monopoly of LEO, especially as other companies or nations with to deploy their own satellite network so as not to be dependent on American Elon Musk or a single company.
    Supergrok (the automatic Grok-selecting feature on X) says:
    The average distance between the 40,000 Starlink satellites, assuming they are uniformly distributed across a spherical shell at an orbital altitude of 300 km above Earth’s surface, can be calculated as follows:

    – Earth’s mean radius is approximately 6,371 km, so the orbital radius \( r \) is 6,371 km + 300 km = 6,671 km.
    – The surface area of the sphere at this radius is \( 4\pi r^2 \approx 559,231,673 \) km².
    – The area per satellite is this surface area divided by 40,000, which is approximately 13,980.79 km².
    – The characteristic average distance (akin to the spacing in a grid-like distribution) is the square root of the area per satellite: \( \sqrt{13,980.79} \approx 118.24 \) km.

    This formula, \( \sqrt{4\pi r^2 / N} \), approximates the typical separation for satellites distributed over the orbital shell, treating the problem as a 2D uniform distribution on a sphere.

    ### Difficulties in Launching Spaceships or Other Satellites to Higher Orbits
    Deploying a large constellation like this in low Earth orbit (LEO) would increase the density of objects in that region, raising the collision risk for vehicles transiting through LEO en route to higher orbits (e.g., medium Earth orbit, geostationary orbit, or beyond). Launch providers would need to perform more rigorous collision avoidance assessments, potentially restricting launch windows and increasing operational costs or delays. In a worst-case scenario involving cascading debris, access to space could become severely limited or even impossible for extended periods, effectively trapping future missions on Earth. However, mitigations such as active satellite maneuvering and improved tracking could reduce these risks, and some analyses suggest the probability remains low if deorbiting protocols are followed strictly.

    ### Difficulties for Ground-Based Astronomers Peering into the Night Sky
    The satellites would reflect sunlight, creating bright streaks or trails in telescope images, particularly during twilight hours when many are illuminated. This interferes with wide-field surveys and long-exposure observations, potentially ruining data for optical astronomy. Radio astronomy faces additional challenges from unintended electromagnetic emissions, which could disrupt sensitive measurements of cosmic phenomena. Light pollution from the constellation has already prompted complaints, and scaling to 40,000 would exacerbate this, affecting both professional and amateur stargazing. Efforts to darken satellites (e.g., via coatings) have been attempted, but they only partially address the issue.

    ### Difficulties in Avoiding a Kessler Syndrome Event
    Kessler syndrome refers to a self-sustaining cascade of collisions where debris from one impact generates more fragments, leading to exponential growth in orbital junk and rendering LEO unusable. A 40,000-satellite constellation significantly elevates this risk due to higher object density, even if individual collision probabilities are small—millimeter-sized debris at orbital speeds can destroy satellites, amplifying the chain reaction. Factors like space weather (e.g., solar flares disrupting systems) could trigger such events. Avoiding it requires robust end-of-life deorbiting, collision avoidance propulsion on each satellite, and international regulations, though the rapid deployment pace outstrips current debris management capabilities. Counterarguments note that Starlink’s low altitude allows natural atmospheric drag to deorbit failed satellites quickly, keeping risks manageable compared to higher orbits.

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