Tesla’s stock closing above $440 for the first time would be a key technical breakthrough when it converts resistance to support and will then pave the way for all-time highs (around $488). There can be false breakouts. The near-term targets are $450–$500, with potential surges to $600–$700 (equating to a $2T market cap) or even $800–$1,000 by year-end if catalysts align. Optimism stems from raised Q3 shipment estimates (now 470K–520K vehicles), EPS forecasts (70–90¢, above Street’s 49¢), and energy storage growth. They extrapolate Tesla’s undervaluation by comparing it to Waymo ($45B valuation for ~2K robotaxis) and Figure AI ($39B for unproven scaling), projecting Tesla could hit $9T on robotaxis alone if scaling to 200x Waymo’s fleet, plus trillions from Optimus robots.
There is a packed 45-day window: Oct 2 volume press release, Q3 earnings (Oct 22), FSD v14 rollout, unsupervised driving pilots, Model Q or stripped down Y announcement possible and Nov 6 annual meeting.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
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On the 26th September, the latest automotive industry numbers in Europe have been released for August 2025, confirming that Tesla’s sales decline has continued, with Tesla down 22%
From Grok:
Approximately 15 million Uber rides occur in the United States each day, based on estimates derived from Uber’s US user base (61.5 million monthly active users in 2025) as a proportion of its global user base and trip frequency.
This is an approximation, as Uber does not publicly break down daily ride volumes by country.Worldwide, Uber coordinates approximately 36 million rides and delivery orders per day as of mid-2025.
2 sources
This figure includes both passenger rides (mobility) and deliveries, with the company completing 3.268 billion trips in Q2 2025 alone (averaging about 36 million daily).
2 sources
Passenger rides specifically account for roughly half of this total, based on the similar split in gross bookings between mobility and delivery segments.
In the past, Brian has broken down what he believes is the gross profit per trip of both a Cybercab and a Robotaxi.
There is a huge addressable market, as shown above.
Also, of course, we have questions:
How soon will MOST riders feel comfortable without a human driving them? Even though it is logical that a computer never gets drunk or sleepy or distracted, people will have trust issues. Never assume humans are logical. We are not.
I am grateful for Waymo cars, because they have prepared the path for FSD unsupervised. Without Waymo, I think Cybercab/Robotaxi would need an additional 5 years to overcome human resistance.
There is also the convenience factor. People don’t like to wait 10-20 minutes for an Uber/Lyft to arrive. They want to go when they want to go.
Finally, there is a huge delivery market to consider. Small orders for 1. Business-to-consumer, and 2. Business-to-business is a gigantic market. Food deliveries and hot-shotting parts will get many times cheaper. Just that market alone could add 10s of billions of profit to Tesla. And there will be much less resistance to robo-deliveries.
Just my opinion. You mileage may vary.