Everything has to go right for China to launch a human moon mission in 2029 or even 2030. China is also building a new rocket and they have not assembled it yet or flown it. China is still testing a lunar lander.
Long March 10 Rocket Certification (2026–2027)
Verification: On Track, with Accelerated 2025 Testing.
The Long March 10 (CZ-10), China’s super-heavy-lift launcher is designed to loft ~70 tons to low Earth orbit or ~27 tons to translunar injection. Development was declared complete in April 2024, shifting focus to qualification and flight tests. A variant, Long March 10A, will handle crewed Mengzhou launches.
Key 2025 progress includes:
August 15: Successful hot-fire test of a shortened first-stage mockup with seven YF-100K kerosene/LOX engines, generating ~1,000 tons of thrust for 35 seconds at Wenchang Launch Center. This validated thermal/mechanical stresses and engine compatibility.
September–October: Two static-fire tests of a first-stage article, including restarts. A full first-stage static fire and low-altitude hop test are slated for Q4 2025.
The first uncrewed flight is targeted for 2026 (10A variant), with certification flights (including Mengzhou/Lanyue integration) in 2026–2027 to qualify it for crewed operations by 2029.
There has never been a Long March 10 that has built and stacked for test or a launch.
Lanyue Lander Integrated Test (2027–2028)
Verification: On Track, Building on 2025 Milestone Tests.
The Lanyue is a two-person lander for surface descent/ascent, supporting EVAs, a rover, and ~15 days of operations as a lunar life/energy/data center. It uses hypergolic propellants and throttleable engines for precision landing near the south pole.
August 6, 2025: Critical simulated landing and ascent test at the Huailai (Hebei) extraterrestrial landing facility, validating touchdown dynamics, thruster shutdown, guidance/navigation/control interfaces, and propulsion compatibility while suspended from a tower. This was a “major milestone” per CMSA, confirming core landing tech.
Full integrated tests (descent from orbit, autonomous lunar landing, ascent, and docking with Mengzhou in cislunar space) are indeed planned for 2027–2028, following robotic precursors.
Lanyue, lunar lander, might have operational readiness by 2029.
Chang’e 7 and 8 Mission Successes (2026–2029)
Verification: Confirmed Schedules, Essential for Site Validation.
These robotic missions are foundational for crewed safety, focusing on south pole water ice, topography, and in-situ resource utilization (ISRU) to inform landing sites and base construction.
Crewed Systems Validation (2028–2029)
Verification: Underway, with Tiangong as Testbed.
This encompasses astronaut selection/training (12 candidates named in 2025), lunar EVA suits (unveiled September 2024; name-solicitation ongoing), and closed-loop life support for ~180-day missions. 2025–2026: Shenzhou-21/22 missions to Tiangong space station will simulate lunar cycles, testing suits and habitats. Joint training with partners
Capsule for crewed lunar missions and the lunar lander are not built yet. They must be built and certified with full unmanned tests.
2028–2029: Full validation via uncrewed Mengzhou demos and Tiangong analogs, including radiation shielding and psychophysiological stressors.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
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