Japan is decades ahead of the rest of the world with an aging and shrinking population. There are some who claim we don’t know what will happen with future populations. However, the next 20 years are very clear for population impacts on workforce and retirement. People who will be 20 years older are alive today. China already has about 50% of Japan’s aging population effects. Real estate price drops and drags on GDP and economy. China has not hit full Japanification, but full Japanification for the next 2 decades is inevitable. The population pyramid show that there is a missing 100 million youth from 0-18.
Goldman Sachs projects China’s property crisis could worsen. They forecast home prices potentially falling another 10% by 2027. This is already the fourth year of the property crisis.
By 2035, 400 million people will be 60 years and above and account for 30 percent of the population. China could have 500 million people over 60 in 2048 and the overall population could drop to 1.1 to 1.2 billion in 2050.
Japan shrinking workforce is projected to decline further from now to 2050 and beyond. It has shaved 0.7-0.9 percentage points off annual GDP growth, contributing to Japan’s lost decades of stagnation.
Japan has an epidemic of old people dying alone (Kodokushi). This is a growing crisis, with an estimated 68,000 cases in 2024—up from 32,000 in 2009—and over 17,000 in the first quarter alone. Mostly affecting men over 50 living solo. The bodies often go undiscovered for weeks due to isolation, with decomposition complicating identification. It’s tied to economic slumps forcing early retirements. There are reports that the epidemic of old people dying alone in China is about 100,000 cases per year. China having the one child policy increases the risk of no family for old people. By 2040, China could be looking at 500,000 to over 1 million cases per year of dying alone. 4-10% of elderly deaths.
China’s aging and shrinking population is already exerting significant downward pressure on economic growth. China hits super-aged (20% over 65) by 2035 while it happened in Japan in 2025. China aging shock will hit harder and faster without Japan’s decades of gradual adjustment.
China’s workforce peaked at about 1.01 billion in 2015 and has since declined by roughly 5-6 million annually. This is contributing to labor shortages in manufacturing, construction, and services. This has reduced potential GDP growth by an estimated 0.5-0.7 percentage points (pp) per year currently, according to IMF. Fewer workers mean lower productivity and consumption. Combined with an old-age dependency ratio rising to 22% (from 13% in 2010), it strains pension and healthcare systems, diverting fiscal resources from investment.
The property sector, once 25-30% of GDP, contracted by 10-15% in 2024-2025, dragging overall growth by 1-2 pp. New home sales fell 20-25% year-over-year in early 2025, inventory surplus hit 700 million sqm (enough for 3-4 years of demand), and prices dropped 5-10% in major cities.
Between 2030 and 2035, Japan will potentially see one-third of all homes sitting vacant.
Household wealth erosion is equivalent to 10-15% of GDP in losses. This has curbed consumption, with retail sales growth at just 3-4% vs. pre-crisis 8%. 2025 GDP growth of around 4.5% (below the 5% target) with structural drags totaling 1.5-2.5 pp.
Local governments face $9-10 trillion in hidden debt from land sales collapse, forcing austerity.
The drags are expected to intensify as the workforce shrinks faster by 25 million cumulatively from 2025-2030. The population will decline by about 15 million. Aging will could be a 1.1-1.4 pp total drag by 2030 per AMRO and World Bank models. This is about $300 billion in foregone output annually.
Productivity losses from fewer innovators and consumers could shave another 0.3-0.5 pp, pushing per capita growth below 3%.
Real estate woes will worsen with demand falling 15-20% further due to fewer young buyers. Unsold inventory may double, leading to more developer defaults.
Youth unemployment rates hovering around 15-20% in recent years.
Real estate woes will worsen with demand falling 15-20% further due to fewer young buyers. Unsold inventory may double, leading to more developer defaults (Evergrande-style crises). This could subtract 1.5-2.5 pp from growth yearly. This is causing banking problems with non-performing loans at 5-7% and construction employment is down 10-15%.
China’s demographic pyramid is terrible. There is a huge drop in the 0-18 ages and this is not some forecast. This is what has already happened. Any major turnaround is over two decades away.
China is aging twice as fast as Japan. Its over-65 share rose from 7% in 2015 to 15% in 2025. Japan’s rose 12% to 29% over the same 2015-2025. China’s fertility at 1.0 versus Japan’s 1.2-1.3. China’s population could drop 200 million by 2050 and outpace Japan’s 16% decline 2025-2050 decline.
China’s real estate prices have fallen 20-30% from peaks. China has about 30 million vacant units versus Japan’s 9 million.
The next 20 years of work force decline are locked-in. The aging of the median age of the overall population from 41 to 50 is pretty much locked-in.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
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So energy will be focused on keeping the elderly in their homes with virtual companions; robotic mobility aids for inside and outside the home; online medical care and driverless vehicles.
Yes, this is a really happening, now we need to determine what the implications for the rest of the World will be. I’m thinking this increases China’s likelyhood of invading Taiwan sooner rather than later.
Those forced sterilizations and abortions are coming back to haunt China. Karma can be a real drag sometimes.
It would have been nice to see some comparisons to the USA per immigration effects. Also, speculation on whether robotics could actually save us.
Answer = robots.
How many China already has?
How many more making?
No USA numbers?
Yes but humanoid robots are a fantasy.
It’s very hard to believe humanoid robots are a fantasy. Look the money being thrown at it. Look at the potential market size (every home, store, factory and warehouse in the entire world)
If we are speculating about change, the only thing that matters is if the psychopathic leaderships see any upside having flesh armies compared to robotic armies.
I would guess they feel safer having robotic armies, which means they will not try and mitigate the population pyramids.
GDP in China and Japan is still increasing, just more slowly. GDP doesn’t NEED to increase rapidly when there are fewer people to demand things and GDP per capita can increase faster than overall GDP when the population is shrinking. Standard of living can keep rising.
At some point, artificial wombs will close the ~20 gap between Petri dish in vitro fertilization methods and premie incubator earliest usage (with the latter being modified or abandoned in favor of artificial wombs). Then, there will be paid “mothers” which will incentivize care-taking as a viable career, mostly for women.
Housing, of course, is way too expensive, given the vacancy rates in Japan and soon China. Many developers will take big losses, but others will follow to pick up the real estate on the cheap. A shift to taxation on land (location) instead of improvements (e.g. buildings) would speed appropriate development and end hoarding and speculation, which mostly enriches banks without producing affordable housing. Other taxes on productivity can then be eliminated to spur productive activities.
Robots and pre-fab housing will make housing cheaper and more automated too, overcoming the construction worker shortage. I don’t know how this mostly AI Youtube video of supposed Elon Musk tiny housing is: https://youtu.be/p7WW63EwCBA?si=OVm3y5B5n76cG3sQ and tiny houses are a scam anyway, since dense urban cities are where people can make a living and want to move to (we also have enough trailer parks already). But if even half true, it shows what automation and pre-fab construction can do.
The environmental problems will be more solved by de-growth than anything else that is REALISTICALLY possible; there are lots of plans and potential solutions, but very little implementation, and actual regression under Trump’s fossil fuel and pro-pollution policies. The Earth could use a break from excessive humans, and de-growth is better than wars.
Well, this might just man that Taiwan, if an invasion can be avoided in the coming few years, has a chance for long term survival. A weak China is presumably a china that will not invade another country.
It’s worse than that even for China as there are probably about 100 million non-existent under 30’s in their official demographic numbers.
Quite probably so