Tesla’ surged to $460 amid high expectations for tomorrow’s Q3 delivery numbers.
Brian and Randy give their prediction of Tesla Q3 car deliveries and quarterly energy production.
UPDATE Oct 2: Actual deliveries 497k.
Brian predicted 495k-595k.
495,000–505,000 vehicle deliveries. Adjusted from prior quarter plus adjustments for inventory drawdown (from Q2’s +26,000 excess). Europe (+13,000 to ~65,000), US growth (from 150,000 to 200,000, driven by EV market strength as seen by GM/Ford and expiring $7500 credit), and China (240,000 up from first two months of quarter 150,000 + 90k from September push). For energy storage: A bold 15 GWh, citing potential surges in production.
There was a 50k inventory drawdown with 447K.
A really strong delivery beat could trigger EPS upgrades and further stock price gains.
Disappointing delivery numbers could result in profit taking and a drop in the stock price.
They dismiss a rumored Model Q code leak as unreliable and speculate on its launch next week to fill factory capacity in Europe (Berlin) and China.
What could a stripped-down Model Y save in costs?
FSD v14 rollout is expected by week’s end (Friday/Saturday) for early testers.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.
I wish for Mr. Musk to consider helping Telo Mini Truck with gigapress donation and physics/chemistry. Telo will not eat into Tesla profits. Telo also, no hated by left. Could drop price with gigacast body, sodium batteries, volume (Theodore Wright law) to affordable $25k maybe?
I would buy an EV as long as A) it’s not connected to a network that can remotely shut it off or control it, and B) I’m allowed to buy and own it outright. Whether or not it’s a Tesla doesn’t matter. Those are my requirements. Personally, I think there should be laws mandating those as requirements for EVs.
Tesla can deliver all it wants. Its having people to buy the stuff that matters. And all I’m seeing is stories about Tesla losing market share.
In the US at least you aren’t likely to see any more stories about Tesla losing market share after the end of EV subsidies October 1. Everybody else loses money making EVs even at subsidized prices. Legacy carmakers also cannibalize profitable ICE sales as they scale EV sales that lose money. No other carmaker has anything remotely close to FSD 14. As the pressure of EV mandates reduces, Tesla market share will rise again.
You vastly underestimate just how much Musk is loathed. Or at the very least, distrusted. For a large segment of the folks on the left, they wouldn’t buy a Tesla if it was the last EV on earth. And don’t look for the MAGA folks to take up the slack. A good portion of them think that driving an EV will turn you gay.
Disagree. I’m on the Right and have started considering the purchase of a Model Y. Primarily because I’m 70 yrs old and figure I may soon need FSD just to get around without danger of making a driving mistake on my own.
Huh?
What’s the worldwide market share of Apple?
It falls each year:
2021 ~29%
2022 ~28%
2023 ~27%
2024 ~28% (end of year)
2025 (as of June) ~25.4%
Lowest in five years due to increased Chinese competition and modest market share declines in Asia.
I guess Apple is doomed.
Oh, wait.
They make most of their money off of services, not hardware.
I wonder if there’s another company heading in that direction? One that focuses on autonomous car software and autonomous software for humanoid robots? One that has a major AI focus?
I guess we’ll soon find out.
Profits, cash flow, EPS, and growth are all that matter.
Market share is only relevent in a commodities market.