The latest GDPNow USA GPD estimate is 5.3 percent — January 14, 2026. U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said on Tuesday he expected first quarter GDP growth in the United States would exceed 5% in the first quarter of 2026, adding that its interest rates were too high and were holding back stronger growth. The U.S. economy saw strong growth in Q3 2025, with real GDP increasing by an annualized 4.3%, building on Q2’s 3.8% rise.
China 2025 GDP was 5.0%, meeting government’s target. Q4 GDP growth slows to 4.5% y/y, just above market forecast. For Q1 2026, analysts like ANZ predict China to have weak GDP growth, potentially in the low-to-mid 4% range (year-on-year), with limited stimulus impact and a focus on services rebound. Overall 2026 GDP is projected around 4.5% for China.
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2025 is 5.3 percent on January 14, up from 5.1 percent on January 9. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Treasury’s Bureau of the Fiscal Service, and the National Association of Realtors, the nowcasts of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth, fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth, and fourth-quarter real government expenditures growth increased from 3.0 percent, 4.8 percent, and 1.3 percent, respectively, to 3.1 percent, 5.1 percent, and 1.6 percent.
The growth rate of real gross domestic product (GDP) measured by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is a key metric of the pace of economic activity. It is one of the four variables included in the economic projections of Federal Reserve Board members and Bank presidents for every other Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model also mimics the methods used by the BEA to estimate real GDP growth. The GDPNow forecast is constructed by aggregating statistical model forecasts of 13 subcomponents that comprise GDP. Other private forecasters use similar approaches to nowcast GDP growth. However, these forecasts are not updated more than once a month or quarter, are not publicly available. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model fills these three voids.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
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Posting GDP growth numbers (like a US annualized 4.3% or a Chinese 5%) is irrelevant without also posting the increase in total debt across Federal, State/Provincial, Corporate, and Individual categories for each country’s system.
A 2% GDP growth rate, with a 0% increase in total debt, is far “healthier,” i.e., more sustainable than a 4% growth rate with a 6.1% increase in total debt.
Only when GDP growth rates are higher than debt growth rates is growth “healthy”.
Goldman Sachs projects 2.5% Q4/Q4 growth and 2.8% full-year for 2026, citing tax cuts and fading tariff impacts. Optimistic views include Lutnick’s >5% Q1 call and articles eyeing 5%+ early 2026 amid productivity gains. Official Q1 2026 advance estimate is due late April.
Jensen Huang and Sam Altman walk down a street. They come to a big pile of dog poo.
Jensen says ‘I’ll give you one billlion dollars if you eat the poo’.
Sam says ‘OK’ and gobbles it down.
Jensen says ‘Great stuff. It’ll take a while to get the money together though.’
A bit later they come to another pile of poo. This time Sam says ‘I’ll give you a billion dollars if you eat it this time’.
Jensen says ‘OK’ and eats it all up.
Sam says ‘Great. Now we can call it evens”
A bit later, Jensen stops and says ‘Hang on, we ate all that poo but didn’t gain anything’.
Sam replies ‘Yeah, but we added two billion dollars to the GDP’.
Yup.
(I miss the days when we could a give thumbs up –or down, on comments.
One of the best drivers of engagement in the comments.)
GDP will likely only continue to climb, as it further decouples from reality. With AI/Robotics getting better by the day, it will lead to great GDP numbers, but that will not be an indication of how the everyday American is doing. It will only get worse until a UBI/Dividend type system is passed by congress. which is likely 2-3 years away.
And that will work only as long as the UBI/Dividend type system isn’t the kind that keeps people permanently in a box/current economic lane, preventing them from achieving more personal abundance. Any system that prevents people from achieving their dream life (even if it seems totally unreachable) will be a total failure.
I agree.
But, how many people right now are capable of “achieving their dream”?
The system as it stands already makes that difficult to impossible for those not born into opportunity.
Some kind of “Universal Ladder” that is available to all, in conjunction with UBI, might be the way up.
The bottom rungs might be no-cost-to-individuals comprehensive health care, education, and personalized counseling/mentoring at all stages of life.
As one climbs, they access more resources.
Rewarding those trying with all the support they need to succeed.
Those who choose to be happy with their UBI won’t be a drag on those looking for something more.
I’m sure the ratio of climbers to sitters would improve, but it’d never be %100 climbers.
It’s always been that way.
Only a few humans out of many first learned to control fire, weave clothe, twist fibres into rope, round the wheel, paint the cave walls…
We’d all benefit by helping those few humans capable of discovery and innovation access the resources they need to succeed.