First Cybercab off the production line at Giga Texas.
Scaling Projections: The “Slow S-Curve” Reality
Elon has been very clear and consistent for weeks of a slow S curve ramp.
Mass / continuous production officially starts in April 2026.
Initial ramp will be agonizingly slow because almost everything is new (new vehicle architecture with no steering wheel/pedals, new unboxed manufacturing process, new suppliers for many components, new gigacastings, new wiring harnesses, new end-of-line testing for unsupervised autonomy hardware, etc.).
Production always follows an S-curve. Very flat at the beginning → sudden steep acceleration once the line is dialed in → eventual extremely high output.
Raines looked at the Jan 2026 Robotaxi crash report, and the numbers are exciting🔥
– when safety passenger got removed (Jan 2026), MPI (miles per intervention) is ~200K miles.
– Now (Feb 2026), MPI is ~400K miles.
– Robotaxi in Austin will fully surpass human drivers by the end of Q1 (before April).
These numbers deviate from his last prediction due to several methodological improvements:
– He previously underestimated Robotaxi mileage by ~2.5x because I was guessing mileage using a few data points and a fleet size chart. This is now corrected using the actual Robotaxi mileage chart reported in Tesla’s 2025 Q4 financial statement.
– He realized parking lot dents and stationary crashes were adding significant noise. After removing them, the model fits the data much better.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
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Elon just said Marques Brownlee would have to shave his head this year.
Why?
Because Marques said he would shave his head if Tesla sold a $30,000 CyberCab to a customer.
Elon is usually late on his predictions, but he generally achieves his goals.
With Elon, it’s not a matter of ‘if’, but ‘when’…
If it earns a profit the cities will lay on an excess profits tax and raise the cab medallion fee.
LOL
You’re probably right…