The 2026 Iran war is quantitatively ~2–4× bigger in key metrics already and in half the time. Trump has said it will last weeks and the use of B52s is increasing the attack rate by 4 times. The duration could be 3 times longer or more. It could end up at 20 or more times larger in targets hit if it lasts 4 weeks or longer.
Israel alone has delivered more munitions in 5 days (5,000) than the entire previous war (4,300). Total sorties doubled in half the duration.
U.S. alone hit over 2,000 sites in 2026.
Iranian response has been higher in numbers in 2026 (~700 missiles + 2,000+ drones vs. ~400 + 1,000) but effectiveness is much lower. The waves were smaller and many were diverted to Gulf states. There has been a 90% drop in ballistic attacks and 83% drop in drones per CENTCOM since the first day.
2026 has seen the sinking of the entire Iran navy annihilation (30+ ships sunk), leadership decapitation (Supreme Leader + dozens more), rapid air superiority, and expanded factory targeting.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
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Do they hate America because they are jealous of our Liberty? So is Trump trying to install democratic elections with fair voting there?
I don’t think he cares what type of government – except no Mullahs. We will not likely put boots on the ground and many Iranians HATE their government.
In other future prediction news, the odds of a midterms Democrat sweep on both the house and senate on the Polymarket site, have migrated from being an outside event at the start of last year, to being the most likely event now.
Then I hope everyone in the USA enjoys living in VA and CA.
I have been ranked as high as 8th out of 30000 in Metaculus. I predicted Trump win and Republican sweep 9 month before the 2024 election and with very high confidence.
Polymarket’s Odds Timeline and Corrections: In the early months of 2024 (January to June), Polymarket odds for a full Republican sweep hovered around 20-30%, reflecting uncertainty amid Biden’s incumbency and early polling noise. By mid-October, about two weeks before Election Day, odds had shifted significantly toward Trump and a GOP sweep, reaching above 40% for a Republican sweep scenario. I was at 90% Trump win by about Nov 2023 and then went to 97 by Jan and 99% by June. I was also at 99% for republican sweep.
My early call (9-12 months out) that Trump would beat Biden or Harris, based on Gallup party identification leans translating to House and Senate gains, was correct and and historically supported. It converted into the popular vote (ended up +2% R, and this converted into house seats) Gallup data from 2024 showed Republicans holding a rare 3-point edge in party ID (48% GOP/leaners vs. 45% Dem/leaners in Q3 averages), a reversal from Democratic advantages in prior cycles.
My focus for 2026 is on the competitive races (only about 18 that are really competitive), redistricting, and the Iran war as swing factors is grounded in data, and a complete U.S. victory will shift dynamics in 3-6 races. The Supreme Court (March 2, 2026) blocked redistricting map NY-11 (Staten Island/Brooklyn) will remain GOP-held NYC seat Rep. Nicole Malliotakis. Opening Strait Hormuz by April (oil back to $70 or even 65) and Victory by May and some cleanup by summer (oil $50-60). March -April leveraged trade deal with China. Reduced inflation from late summer, lowered interest rates for about 5% mortgage rates. Might eak out the house control. Senate remains with R. Races not really competitive (52-53 R). Republicans have a lot more money for the races in 2026 than Democrats. This will mean loads of focused ads to convert the few thousand or get turnout in those few races. Decent economy in August-November (jobs, interest rates inflation can shift the undecided and get better turnout.). Shifts on economy May-June-July (lower interest rates).
National generic ballot currently tilts D +4–5, but incumbency, local factors, and turnout can override. Republican-held Toss-Ups (14 — GOP must defend most to hold majority). Only AZ-01 is open, all other incumbents running. R must hold 10 of these (and getting 2 and maybe 4 that are not in the 18 would be big).
AZ-01 (Open — Schweikert retiring to run for governor) Even/PVI R+3. Open-seat chaos. early GOP primary frontrunners emerging.
AZ-06 Juan Ciscomani (R, running) Toss-Up / narrow 2024 win. Suburban Phoenix. slight D generic pressure.
CA-22 David Valadao (R, running) Toss-Up / Central Valley. Prop 50 redistricting added slight D voters but Valadao’s incumbency helps.
CA-48 Darrell Issa (R, running) Toss-Up / Orange County Prop 50 redraw made it more competitive. multiple D challengers already eyeing it. Iranians could help hold this.
CO-08 Gabe Evans (R, running) Toss-Up / growing suburban Denver close 2024.
IA-01 Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R, running) Toss-Up / slight R lean historically.
IA-03 Zach Nunn (R, running) Toss-Up / Des Moines suburbs.
MI-07 Tom Barrett (R, running) Toss-Up / rural/suburban mix.
NJ-07 Tom Kean Jr. (R, running) Toss-Up / affluent suburbs; small Iranian-American population possible upside.
NY-17 Mike Lawler (R, running) Toss-Up / one of only a few R-held districts Harris won in 2024. very high D turnout risk.
PA-07 Ryan Mackenzie (R, running) Toss-Up / Lehigh Valley.
PA-10 Scott Perry (R, running) Toss-Up / Harrisburg area.
VA-02 Jen Kiggans (R, running) Toss-Up / Hampton Roads. modest Iranian bloc potential.
WI-03 Derrick Van Orden (R, running): Toss-Up / western Wisconsin.
Democrat-held Toss-Ups (4 — GOP pickup opportunities) OH-01 Greg Landsman (D, running) Toss-Up / Cincinnati suburbs.
OH-09 Marcy Kaptur (D, running) Toss-Up / Toledo area. long-time incumbent but aging.
TX-34 Vicente Gonzalez (D, running) Toss-Up / South Texas border R gerrymander attempts blocked for now.
WA-03 Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D, running) Toss-Up / southwest Washington. one of the most Republican-leaning D-held seats.
NOT in the 18 – If Iranians in American who are regularly 50-50, go for R because Iran is freed. 70-30 or 80-20
CA-45 Current incumbent Derek Tran (D) — won the seat in 2024 by flipping it from Michelle Steel (R) in an ultra-narrow race (~653-vote margin pre-redraw). Under the new Prop 50 Democratic map it is now rated Lean Democrat. ~8,000–10,000 Iranian-American eligible voters in the district (Orange County/Irvine area). Bloc size is 12–15× the 2024 margin. A 70-30 (or stronger) R break with high turnout would flip it to R.
CA-13 (Adam Gray D, Lean Democrat) 3,200 Iranian voters. 2024 margin was razor-thin (187 votes in some analyses). Bloc is ~17× margin. Same 70-30 R + high turnout scenario makes this a probable flip.
CA-47 (Dave Min D) Much larger Iranian population (~22,000–28,000 eligible voters in Irvine area). Currently safer Democratic (Harris +10), harder to fully flip, but the surge could dramatically narrow it.
Navy gone, leaders gone, people hate the regime, yet they are still convinced winning is an option ?
Survival is winning, when under attack by an overwhelming force, whose stated goals are no survivors.