Pre-war baseline (Feb 2026 estimates from Central Bank, IMF, and tanker data)
Iran Government budget is $106 billion annual ($8–9 billion/month total revenue needed).
Oil share was 25–40% (or ~1/3 overall) → ~$1.7–2.5 billion/month net oil income (after heavy discounts to China).
Non-oil exports are ~$4.5 billion/month (petrochemicals ~25–30%, pistachios/saffron/ag ~small slice, natural gas/metals rest).
Imports (incl. food) are ~$5 billion/month.
Capital flight was about ~$2.5 billion/month (pre-strike trend).
Usable FX reserves inside country was about $10–21 billion accessible. The total reported ~$100 billion but vast majority frozen overseas or tied in China barter accounts. This is down ~80% since 2018.
War month (March 2026 reality)
Oil revenue is now $0 as new inflows and exports are halted. Only pre-loaded tankers deliver one-off buffer over weeks).
Non-oil exports will be ~$1 billion or less. Some pistachios/trucks to Turkey/Iraq. Petrochemicals and gas stuck at sea.
Imports are ~$2–3 billion at best. Food is prioritized via land borders. Sea routes blocked.
Capital flight is about $2+ billion. This continues via crypto/gold smuggling.
Government spending/war costs are rising sharply (deficit explodes).
Net result: $5+ billion monthly FX hole. [2 to 4 months to burn the $10-21 billion].
OR the hard money already left. Pre-strike Central Bank of Iran data (reported February 18–20, 2026) showed a record ~$15 billion capital outflow in a recent period, more than offsetting an $11 billion trade surplus — accelerating as oil revenues fell and uncertainty rose. One earlier report (January context) cited $1.5 billion moved via crypto to Dubai in just hours by IRGC-linked actors.
Government prints rials → hyperinflation spike (20–50%+ monthly price surge likely).
Usable reserves burn at $1–2 billion/month from already low base. Rial becomes even more irrelevant. Only physical gold, USD cash, or crypto has value inside Iran.
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