Status of Iran’s Navy and Update on the US-Israel-Iran War

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Iran’s regular surface navy is being systematically sunk and the Iran Navy headquarters was crippled, but the mini-subs and small mine-laying vessels—the ones actually capable of rapidly closing the Strait of Hormuz—remain the primary active threat and have not been neutralized in public reporting.

Iran Mosquito Fleet for Mine Laying is Still Intact and a Potential Problem

Iran’s strategy for closing the Strait of Hormuz has long centered on asymmetric mosquito fleet tactics. Quick mine deployment via small, hard-to-detect platforms rather than big warships. The most important assets here are the Ghadir-class midget submarines (≈20–23 operational, ~120-ton diesel-electric boats, based on North Korean Yono design). They are optimized for shallow Persian Gulf waters. They carry torpedoes but are especially valued for covert mine-laying, special forces insertion, and ambush in the strait’s narrow shipping lanes (only ~2 miles wide per direction). They can bottom-rest to hide acoustically. Iran deployed 20+ of them into the Gulf in the weeks/months before escalation specifically to threaten US carriers and enable mine operations.

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Here is a 2022 81 page Navy Academy thesis on the problems and issues dealing with the Iran Navy in partcular the midget submarines and the rest of the mosquito fleet.

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* 82–131 ft shallow water, silent on batteries, seabed-resting capability (blends with bottom clutter), mine-laying, and ambush/guerrilla tactics.
* The Gulf’s shallow, noisy, current-swept waters favor Iranian hit-and-run tactics and make traditional deep-water ASW harder (acoustic clutter drowns signatures; subs can bottom out and go silent).
* US nuclear subs and ASW assets (P-8s, MH-60R helos, destroyers) are superior overall, but geography + swarm/mining integration forces resource-intensive, prolonged operations.
* Historical precedent (Tanker War) shows Iran’s asymmetric playbook works against unprotected shipping and raises costs even when the US ultimately prevails.
* One of the US Military Objectives is keep the Strait of Hormuz open (20–25 % of global oil, 30 % of LNG transits daily). Shorten the closure or sustained harassment directly threatens the world economy and US energy security.

Lower priority than taking out the missile launchers or encouraging the resistance and getting weapons to them. If certain towns or airstrips get liberated, then larger cargo landings would boost the number of weapon deliveries.

Messages from the Israeli prime minister and American president appeared on Iranian television feeds after attacks on IRIB-linked sites. On Sunday, the satellite transmission of Iranian television channels was hijacked, airing messages from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and part of a speech by President Donald Trump addressed to the Iranian people, alongside footage linked to the latest attacks.

The IDF said that it destroyed the headquarters of Iran’s internal security forces during a wave of airstrikes in Tehran. It stated that the site served as a command-and-control hub for coordinating forces involved in repressing the Iranian population. The IDF added that it also struck the Sarallah Headquarters, an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps unit responsible for security in the Tehran area.

Small fast-attack craft and IRGCN boats (hundreds available, Boghammar-type and similar): Can rapidly lay mines from surface platforms and swarm. Iran has thousands of naval mines (contact, drifting, rocket-propelled rising mines like EM-52) ready for quick deployment.

Commercial shipping is already avoiding the Strait of Hormuz and are going around the long route.

The price of oil per barrel is slightly up. There has been no stock market freak out over the war yet. Bitcoin trades all the time, so there a few percentage points of drop on Friday night as the war started and then it mostly recovered.

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