The has struck all military targets on Kharg Island in the last 2 hours or so.
Moments ago, at my direction, the United States Central Command executed one of the most powerful bombing raids in the History of the Middle East, and totally obliterated every MILITARY target in Iran’s crown jewel, Kharg Island. Our Weapons are the most powerful and sophisticated that the World has ever known but, for reasons of decency, I have chosen NOT to wipe out the Oil Infrastructure on the Island. However, should Iran, or anyone else, do anything to interfere with the Free and Safe Passage of Ships through the Strait of Hormuz, I will immediately reconsider this decision.”
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.
Beyond Trump’s triumphant rhetoric, the real test will be whether oil prices stay high. In an information war, taking official statements at face value would be naïve.
In other future prediction news, a democrat midterm sweep of the house and senate has moved from an improbable event to the most likely outcome at 48% on polymarket. The less excitable Kelshi now has a democrat senate as being the most likely outcome for the first time. Brent crude has increased 50% in the last month. That’s where the real power lies.
Seth Keshel new book voter-registration model. He nailed every 2024 electoral vote and district.
Senate 2026 Republicans hold comfortably and likely expand. Keshel says it would take hell freezing over for Democrats to flip the chamber. Projected range: 51–57 GOP seats (most likely 52–55).
The map is defensive for the GOP. IF Democrats swept every competitive race (which he calls unrealistic), they still couldn’t take control.
Georgia is the only realistic GOP pickup. Prediction markets now are playing the odds bouncing around. Like swing trading a stock. They are not predicting the event but near term mood shifts.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wHsaPfYRQio
House 2026 is an uphill battle for Republicans. History GOP loses seats in 20 of the last 23 midterms. Average loss ~27 seats. Democrats are favored to narrowly flip the majority.
Keshel’s model shows a modest Democratic gain (roughly 220–229 Democratic seats in his framework). GOP can hold a slim majority with excellent turnout, election-integrity efforts, and ground game.
See what happens in over the next 4 weeks with Iran. US control of Hormuz will bring will bring oil back below $70/barrel. Then see what economic stimulus can happen.
Keshel treats monthly voter registration by party as the single most reliable signal of how people will actually vote and whether they will turn out.
New registrations (especially switches from one party to the other or unaffiliated → Republican) are the strongest indicator of intent to vote — stronger than polls, because registering is a concrete action that shows enthusiasm.He compares this to military intelligence work: spreadsheets, county-level maps, historical patterns, and hard data instead of opinion surveys.How the model actually works (step-by-step)Collect registration data
Every month he pulls official Secretary of State numbers from the 7–10 key states that track party affiliation (Florida, Pennsylvania, Arizona, North Carolina, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, etc.). He tracks:Net GOP vs. Democrat gains/losses
New registrations
Active vs. inactive voters
County-level breakdowns
Build the “Index” or coefficient
For each county or state, he looks back 4–6 election cycles (2000–2020 or 2024).
He calculates a coefficient: How much the Republican candidate outperformed (or underperformed) the raw party-registration advantage in past elections.
Example: If Republicans had a 10-point registration edge but won by 18 points, the coefficient is +8 (they “ran to the right” of the index).
He makes a separate Trump-specific coefficient and a general Republican one.
Apply to current data
Take today’s registration lead (e.g., R+15.7 in a county) + the historical coefficient + a pessimistic baseline (factoring in possible turnout drops or irregularities).
Average them → final projected margin.
Layer in turnout & historical county patterns
He adjusts for population growth, demographic shifts, and how counties have voted in similar environments. This is done at the county or even precinct level where possible.
He updates the model monthly (his latest was the March 7, 2026 registration drop you heard him reference).Why he says it beats pollsPolls have response bias, sample problems, and “lost art” issues (he calls most national polls worthless).
Registration is factual hard data that people voluntarily create.
It reveals “true approval ratings” in real time and catches big realignments (working-class shift to GOP, etc.) faster than surveys.
To be honest, I don’t see any good coming out of this.