Kharg island is where Iran can load up to 7 million barrels per day for epxort. US will take and keep Kharg island, permanent navy, marine, special ops base. It will be a base with big moat. The base will be where the US will keep overwatch on Iran. Iran will not a navy back and will not be allowed to make new missile factories etc… Weeds will be cut from Kharg Island.
IF Iran had gotten nukes they would have forced $20 per barrel for every oil and cargo going through Hormuz. $140 billion per year of nuclear backed blackmail. This is the vulnerability that weak US presidents and leadership could have allowed. Hillary said in 2008 that she would attack Iran but she would have done it with forever war (she led the Libya fiasco). This is going to be done faster and with a lot less cost. This will give leverage over Iran, China and Russia. The cost of this war versus the benefit of the geopolitical leverage will be very high.
The 5-mile strip of land known as Kharg Island is home to Iran’s most important oil facility, an export terminal in the Persian Gulf that handles up to 90 percent of the nation’s crude. It’s a cornerstone of Iran’s economy and a major source of revenue for the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, a pillar of the regime. Oil is the lifeblood of the Revolutionary Guard. About half of the nation’s $50 billion oil industry is controlled by the force. That includes a ghost fleet of oil tankers that take its sanctioned crude abroad, mostly to China.
In a May 23, 1988, print interview with The Guardian (conducted by Polly Toynbee while Trump was promoting The Art of the Deal), he was asked about Iran and responded. “I’d be harsh on Iran. They’ve been beating us psychologically, making us look a bunch of fools. One bullet shot at one of our men or ships and I’d do a number on Kharg Island. I’d go in and take it. Iran can’t even beat Iraq, yet they push the United States around. It’d be good for the world to take them on”
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.
The smartest course of action for the United States and the world is to make a union to hold the three islands and a buffer zone along the gulf southern shore of Iran. Have every country involved in its management and security. Even allow Iran to participate at some future point if they meet certain benchmarks. Have Saudi, Iraq, China, India, UAE, EU, Latin America group and have it be an economic zone protected by all. Iran can participate once it has a new constitution and their resources can be allocated fairly. 10% of the top to run the zone. 10% to America 5% to Israel to repay for the costs. Then the rest goes to Iran but distributed fairly like how Saudi Arabia does it. Essentially take the southern coastal land from Iran along with the three islands. Then have a peace keeping agreement and plan where security forces from all countries who have interests in the strait. Then use part of the money collected to widen and deepen the lanes. Build more pipelines and also make state of the art infrastructure. Possibly something like the Panama Canal but not a canal bc that is not needed rather infrastructure that is needed like deeper lanes and wider. Also Iran after a certain amount of years can get more and more control or at least if they refuse to attack they get their part of the resources.
If the US controls Iran’s oil infrastructure what reason does Iran have to to let anything transit the Straits of Hormuz? Given it’s proximity to Iran and the low tech nature of naval mines it will be hard to keep the straits open. Mines can be swept and mine laying boats can be sunk but ensuring a swept route through the straits would be very difficult, and insurance rates will skyrocket. Tanker companies are not charities. High insurance rates will be passed on to consumers. If the tanker companies cannot get insurance they won’t sail.
How can Iran block the straits of hormuz with no navy, another 16 of their speedboats are gone. They are trying to block the strait but ships are going through, almost no missiles or drones. Without oil exports (less $13 billion per year), no hard currency. They have about $2-3 billion per year left. Not enough to fund themselves much or quds, hezbolla, or hamas ($6-7 billion per year). The regime loyalists (10% of population) but how many with no salary or 10% of the money for salaries. Give a few billion in weapons to the Kurds and the others. It is not Iran but the regime. The top 100+ guys get killed or are already dead. Their big weapons are destroyed. They have a budget less than the Houthis used to have. The people in Iran who lost 30,000 to the recent suppression get to go hunting for revenge. 9 million barrels per day of oil will be going through Saudi and UAE pipelines. So only 11 million barrels need to go through ships. The US Navy and air force and drones is hunting down everyone by the shore. Holding Kharg island will make it easy to send out drone patrols and planes to keep hormuz open. It will not be “Iran”. See how much the regime has left or if they will be running anything.
Why not reduce the 11 million? At least in the mid-term? I do fear drones and missiles much more than mines sinking an oil tanker. Arguably a parallel problem. Why not build a few more pipelines as a contingency to supplement the two primary ones that already exist? Whatever number/capacity may be optimal and as quickly as feasible?
Yes, a very prophetic statement by Brian Wang. Once again, it is a unique pleasure to read his valuable insights. Well done!
We have seen these seemingly bold military campaigns against ideology fail so many times in the previous century. A good “earner” for the “Military Industrial Complex”, you might say? Such “military solutions” against ideology always fail as we are talking about determined human monsters who are very adaptable. Remember Vietnam, Afghanistan etc. Are you amused yet at getting beaten up by primitive “paddy field workers”?
Ever wondered why the Aliens always run away, once observed, instead of “standing their ground”? They are here studying us and their greatest fear would be Homosapiens learning their most interesting technologies, they are well aware (frightened) of violent human adaptability, the very reason there is only one species of sentient being on this planet.
While on paper, this current war seems a very acceptable solution to Europe’s pathetic inaction, it is merely a stalling tactic that will eventually fail. Why help the mad mullahs gather even more strength through the national hatred that military invasion will certainly bring?
I am not saying that the immediately necessary American intervention, after Europe somehow turned a “blind eye” to this immediate and present danger, will not work, just that these murderous monsters must never be allowed to have the atomic bomb. The only solution is for the mechanics of recruitment of even more doomsday nutters must be cut away and the already indoctrinated exterminated, just like any other household invasive pestilence. The building of a new and peaceful Persia with a Shah that they can identify with is what the Iranian people desperately need right now, National Healing, not dodging American bombs. Leave the urgently required extermination of the current pestilence to them, they are more than willing to throw off their shackles!
As you would be only too aware, the uranium enrichment approach is not the only way to fabricate nuclear weapons, just a primitive initial attempt at which the insane mullahs will get better at, as time passes.
It does give the American Military a very needed “tune-up” for the coming WW3, so it is not all bad, provided American casualties do not increase from misguided invasions, I guess?
Earth has always been an extremely violent place full of an over-abundance of predators throughout it’s entire history (Dinosaurs,Terror birds, Neanderthals, Homosapiens, etc.),. Homosapiens have now evolved into the ultimate predator, the very reason that we will probably be the ones to end it all!
Don’t know why you keep blaming Europe! USA was against European militaries being rebuilt and strong after 1945 and has opposed a European army.
In 1953, Iran’s democratically elected Prime Minister, Mohammad Mosaddegh, was overthrown in a coup (Operation Ajax) orchestrated by the US CIA and British intelligence (MI6) to restore power to Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi and protect Western oil interests. This event solidified the Shah’s authoritarian rule for decades.
The Shah was overthrown due to widespread dissatisfaction with his autocratic rule.
The result of that 1979 revolution we are living with today.
And now the USA is attempting another coup. Whether things will turn out better this time we will wait and see. At least Israel is happy.
Kharg Island is the key to Iranian Oil Revenue.
Taking it and holding it and charging Iran a fee to load ships makes sense.
Iran cannot afford to damage the infrastructure there by attacking it.
It is the strategic spot in the region.
Afghanistan 2.0
I hate war.
I don’t want any American boots on the ground in Iran. Tired of losing our boys to keep Europe and the Middle East protected. Let them take responsibility for themselves, selfish/self-centered bastards.
Having said that, Trump is addressing an existential problem that’s been festering since the late 1970s. Iran with nukes is spookier than anything I could imagine. They amount of death and destruction the Mullahs and Ayatollahs in Iran have propagated over the last 40+ years is insane.
Clean it up once and for all, and let’s put a stop to forever wars…
“Let them take responsibility for themselves, selfish/self-centered bastards.”
You mis a part of history. When europe wanted to setup its own European army, the US was against that. The US also was against European arms manufacturers to protect the US manufactures. The US never wanted a strong European army in the first place.
Additionally, when the US called for assistance in the Iraq / Afgan war, Europe did help the US.
I don’t know about that. I’m pretty sure the military industrial complex will try (and fail, but they’ll still try for a few years) to place more theocrats like that in power in order to keep the forever wars going, because they generate profits. Of course, they will eventually fail, but they might try.
1988 was quite a different time, though. I even kind of remember it (not really, though, I was too young). I don’t think a free and democratic Iran would let a foreign nation control their natural resources without a lot of A) fighting or B) lots of deals to benefit its people. But the MIC forever wars keep the cash flowing to contractors, so which do you think it would be? Assuming Iran goes for something that isn’t a dictatorship, of course.