Alberta separatists claim to have enough signatures to trigger a referendum on whether the province should get independence from Canada.
Alberta, home to Canada’s oil sands and decades of the federal government take most oil profits and policies that greatly restrict Alberta oil industry.
In May 2025, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith said she would hold a referendum if a petition calling for one was successful. Activists were given a deadline of early May to collect 177,000 signatures to spark a referendum request under Alberta’s Citizen Initiative framework.
Petition Verification
After May 2, 2026, all collected signatures are submitted to Alberta’s Chief Electoral Officer for independent review and verification under the Citizen Initiative Act.
The Referendum
If the petition is verified, every eligible Albertan will have the opportunity to vote on the proposed constitutional question:
“Do you agree that the Province of Alberta should cease to be part of Canada to become an independent state?”
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The below is a fair assessment of the ability of Alberta to remove itself from the Confederation
https://gem.cbc.ca/about-that-with-andrew-chang?autoplay=1
I generally think it is unlikely given the 2.9M million voters in Alberta and only 177,000 signatures were needed to make this a referendum question.
Peter Zeihan released a video last year on how Alberta might secede – it seemed less likely then – and trigger a domino series of successions that ultimately meant the dissolution of Canada and its joining the U.S., one province at a time: https://youtu.be/jSkgLNSLaYg?si=Fhu4mV9DrY6yx4bO
Saskatchewan would be next, for similar demographic and resource reasons. Both export more to America than to the rest of Canada, or at least they did before the tariffs went into place. The lifting of tariffs makes it more likely now.
Zeihan says the last century Quebec resolution by Canada’s supreme court actually makes it legally possible for Alberta or any other province or territory to secede. A divided Canada which is also aging rapidly might be unable to stand together. Independent provinces would be weak, militarily and economically. The Trump administration has had backdoor meetings with Alberta secessionists and would want them to join as a state.
If all Canada’s provinces joined as separate states, it would change America for the better, IMO. They have free universal healthcare and better schools. With a more liberal U.S. Senate after all join, we might get that too, plus we’d be a lot more polite.
This playbook has been playes sooo many times in history. Its called the path to civil war.
This is why it is unlikely Republicans controlling the US would allow Canada’s provinces in as states. Easier as North American version of EU or like Puerto Rico or just trade and economic deal.
The Republicans would welcome Alberta and possibly Saskatchewan.
A loose corollary to how space colonies might break away to form sovereign nations
Psychological, political, economic drives.
Processes, expectations, and outcomes.
The future is unavoidable, time rolls on.
Colony independence movements on the Moon, Mars, Venus, and in free-space, will happen.
Eventually. Hopefully.
I’ve followed talk about Canada and America uniting for a long time.
Even love reading about the Red and Blue plans.
The American post-war military plans for invading Canada, and Canada’s plans for invading America.
A sh0tgun wedding, I guess.
Zeihan is a generalist and not a very astute analyst on Canadian politics. He speaks in broad generalities.
Honestly, the US should not even consider bringing them into the union, even if they ask. The US doesn’t need more dependents. We can set up a deal to import, refine, and export their oil – something Canada proper didn’t want, and that would work to the advantage of us both.
But tighter ties than that? No thanks.
Alberta is the youngest and richest province by far. It would be an asset. It’s not behind Mississippi in annual earnings.
Unless they plan to join the US, they will be a landlocked country and at the mercy of Canada and the US.
Quebec fought to update the rules so they could secede from the Nation. Now those rules are available for Alberta to use.
Quebec was opposed to the Clarity Act. The Clarity Act makes it essentially impossible to secede.
I mean if they are smart they wont want to be part of US, but Independent yes,..