All Gas No Brakes for Space Economy

4 thoughts on “All Gas No Brakes for Space Economy”

1. I would think a significant problem is even the tiniest speck of, anything, is going so fast it can cause damage, it can not be seen and when it hits something makes more tiny super fast specks which could, as forecast, cause a Kessler syndrome.

   Maybe they could armor them with air gels or something similar that would keep the smallest particles from causing damage while also capturing them. That might work.

2. Land – as defined under classical economics, which recognized three factors of production, not two, until the early 20th century – was considered ALL parts of nature. This definition was accepted across the spectrum from Karl Marx to Adam Smith, and most emphasized by American journalist/political economist Henry George. Land included included location in urban areas. It would have included location in outer space too. So, it’s incorrect to say that “Land” is not a consideration of space-based satellite placements, which are really confined to LEO, not the whole of space. Already, a credible study has shown a chain reaction of satellite collisions is just days away at any given time, with that time shrinking as satellites multiply in the sky: https://spectrum.ieee.org/kessler-syndrome-crash-clock. It will soon be just hours away.
   Now, Amazon – a wholly different company than SpaceX – wishes to compete for space in LEO. China too, will launch more satellites in the future. At some point, there will be collisions. If foreign antagonistic powers like China and Russia are involved in orbits over their own regions, they might even shoot down or blow up American satellites in space, sending debris unpredictably flying into other satellites in a Kessler syndrome. Since airborne object, even American planes, have been shot down before without provoking war, China or Russia may correctly figure such actions won’t do so again.
   No country owns space, but the ever-expanding wedge of space above a particular country into LEO is a nebulous area, especially if used for spying. Imagine if a large and hugely expensive space-based data center was blown up. That would not only be catastrophic on its own, it would affect future launches, insurance, and operational reliability of existing networks.
   So, space is not “free land.” It has many risks which don’t exist on American ground.

   • The cited report above includes:
     “Samantha Lawler: Starlink just released a conjunction report—they’re doing one collision avoidance maneuver every two minutes on average in their megaconstellation.”
     So, a crash might be just minutes away already, not days.

     • When I am driving on the highway, I have to make turns and adjustments every minute. SpaceX is moving each satellite about once per week to be extra safe against one in 3.3 million chance risks. DATA – For the 6-month period Dec 1, 2024 – May 31, 2025, Starlink satellites performed 144,404 collision avoidance maneuvers (CAMs).

       That works out to roughly one maneuver every 1.8–2 minutes on average across the whole fleet (≈144k maneuvers ÷ ≈262,800 minutes in 6 months).

       The next 6-month period (June–Nov 2025) was similar (~148–149k maneuvers), bringing the 2025 total to about 300,000 maneuvers. 30 moves per satellite over a 6 month period. One move every 6 days per satellite.

       With ~10,000+ active Starlink satellites at the time, this means on average one satellite in the constellation fires its thrusters for a small orbit adjustment. SpaceX is actually even stricter. They now trigger an automated maneuver when the calculated probability of collision exceeds ~3 in 10 million (3 × 10⁻⁷) for any predicted conjunction.

       That’s ~30–100× stricter than the industry standard most operators use (1 in 10,000 or 10⁻⁴). They could choose to follow the industry standard and only do one thousand moves or less every 6 months but which satellites are safer. Swerving at the last minute or changing lanes when some possible trouble is spotted?

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